The easiest way to profit in the NBA playoffs...

[ChalkyDog]

... Is to know the narrative. Shit plays out like a book. Amazing hasn't happened unscripted for a second.

Sadly. I haven't been following NBA for even a moment this season, and therefore I am lacking a narrative.

So what is it? I am too apathetic to go searching for it in archives.

[Grits n' Gravy]

Heat repeat is the outcome. If either Chicago or NY get a series with them expect the league and media to oversell it and keep series alive a game or two longer than necessary. West should boil down to OKC vs Spurs but the story will be about LAL if they make it in.

what's the scoop on the new recruits miller landed? the 2 frosh looked good at times but the big center is a stiff right now. 5 fouls and 5 boards.

[seaborneq]

Bet series prices.

[RawBillyIce]

@grits n gravy no chance for nuggs or clips?

lot of value in the future betting here and if they get to even round 2 u can hedge for absolute profit.

I think clips will def make round 2

[daneblazer]

I have Nuggets 18:1 winning the West. They're about half that now

[Smoke]

Moneyline favorites every game

[BIGDAY]

Bet series price early. Hedge late.

[d2bets]

There is always a narrative....after the fact. And no matter what happens, that can be a "narrative". In other words, the best way to profit is to correctly predict what will happen.

[thetrinity]

take the under in game 3 if game 1 and 2 go over

[smoke a bowl]

@grits n gravy no chance for nuggs or clips?

lot of value in the future betting here and if they get to even round 2 u can hedge for absolute profit.

I think clips will def make round 2

Define absolute profit. I would think you could make profit hedging any team if they make it to the 2nd rd.

[blankoblanco]

There is always a narrative....after the fact. And no matter what happens, that can be a "narrative". In other words, the best way to profit is to correctly predict what will happen.

This "narrative" stuff is the ultimate confirmation bias. Any time the thing that the NBA wanted to happen does, people cite the "narrative". When it doesn't happen, people just laugh at the team that lost and forget about it. If the Lakers make the playoffs, it's because of the narrative, if they don't, it's just "LOL lakers garbage washed up team." In '09 do you really think the NBA's script was for the Magic to beat Cavs in the ECF and go to the finals? lol, hell no, according to everyone it was supposed to be Lebron vs Kobe showdown. NBA had every reason to want it to happen, and then it didn't. In '11 was the narrative for the Mavericks to beat the Heat in the finals? Gee, I kinda f**king doubt it.

Sometimes it happens, sometimes it doesn't. If you think anyone beats NBA long-term without knowing the game very well or having an excellent system, you're a square.

[TheMoneyShot]

I remember one year... in Round 1... might of been 2 or 3 years ago... 14 favorites covered in a row on TNT.

[Tomasaurus]

Bet series price early. Hedge late.

Seems like a prefect way to maximize the amount of rake you pay. Your trading in and out of a raked/juiced event, so every transaction you make on the same game your paying more and more too the book. Unless your doing this on an exchange based site (e.g. Betfair) your just reducing your profitability by essentially paying more tax.

take the under in game 3 if game 1 and 2 go over

[Grits n' Gravy]

@grits n gravy no chance for nuggs or clips?

lot of value in the future betting here and if they get to even round 2 u can hedge for absolute profit.

I think clips will def make round 2

Both teams could make round 2 and get beaten easily. Not big on either team you mentioned but enjoy watching Denver play.

[thewhiteguy]

This "narrative" stuff is the ultimate confirmation bias. Any time the thing that the NBA wanted to happen does, people cite the "narrative". When it doesn't happen, people just laugh at the team that lost and forget about it. If the Lakers make the playoffs, it's because of the narrative, if they don't, it's just "LOL lakers garbage washed up team." In '09 do you really think the NBA's script was for the Magic to beat Cavs in the ECF and go to the finals? lol, hell no, according to everyone it was supposed to be Lebron vs Kobe showdown. NBA had every reason to want it to happen, and then it didn't. In '11 was the narrative for the Mavericks to beat the Heat in the finals? Gee, I kinda f**king doubt it.

Sometimes it happens, sometimes it doesn't. If you think anyone beats NBA long-term without knowing the game very well or having an excellent system, you're a square.

[Big Bear]

... Is to know the narrative. Shit plays out like a book. Amazing hasn't happened unscripted for a second.

Sadly. I haven't been following NBA for even a moment this season, and therefore I am lacking a narrative.

So what is it? I am too apathetic to go searching for it in archives.

Damn right. And ABC wants a Celtics vs Heat match up you can bank on that.

And they may have something up their sleeve with Derrick Rose and the Bulls.

[greenhippo]

All in Miami first two round series price. In the West I can see any number of upsets. Houston over San Antonio, Lakers over Thunder. Either one happens it won't be end of the world shocking, but Miami not making conference finals and it will be endless discussion for weeks.

[easyliving]

All in Miami first two round series price. In the West I can see any number of upsets. Houston over San Antonio, Lakers over Thunder. Either one happens it won't be end of the world shocking, but Miami not making conference finals and it will be endless discussion for weeks.

very curious to know what kind of price we will get for the first round. Heat might be something like -2000 against the Bucks

[ChiLLx]

All in Miami first two round series price. In the West I can see any number of upsets. Houston over San Antonio, Lakers over Thunder. Either one happens it won't be end of the world shocking, but Miami not making conference finals and it will be endless discussion for weeks.

Can't go all in on Heat first round. Price will be way too steep. Probably better off just taking them to cover individual games or martingale their MLs if one loses.

[k13]

Just like Wrestlemania.

[YouHave2outs]

if a team wins game 1 and 2 at home to go up 2-0, bet the home team in game 3 that is down in the series, ONLY if they are a favorite. you'll get a few opportunities, and they almost always hit.

[k13]

Home teams kill even more so than the regular season. Gotta be close to 70%

Forget about upsets and value.

The home team wins Game 1 76.05% of the time.

[seaborneq]

Home teams kill even more so than the regular season. Gotta be close to 70%

Forget about upsets and value.

The home team wins Game 1 76.05% of the time.

Winning and covering are two different things. How often does the home team cover game one?

[bjb7223]

bet every memphis game under

[ChalkyDog]

Interesting, and good insight.

Grits - top shelf stuff. Feel like I read a cliff notes version on exactly the teams I wanted.

Miller's team is stupid talented right now. Kaleb is every bit as good if not better than Len, and is better than McGary in a lot of aspects (hustling is not one of them - McGary's motor is stupid). His major issue last year was the fact that he didn't matchup against prototypical big men. If the guy was a 6'10 or smaller big, he got into foul trouble. If it was a legit 7ish foot big, Kaleb would own that matchup.

That said, the Freshman that Miller got, got in eachothers way a lot last season. All blue chip bigs, all vying for the same minutes.

I have no doubt Arizona has the best frontcourt next season. 5 out of the 6 guys in our front court are damn near all guaranteed to be making millions in the league soon enough.....

----

As far as this issue of whether there is truly a narrative - I believe there is. No league is more ripe for easy manipulation of that narrative. I have been wildly successful betting along those lines in the NBA playoffs for a few years now. I plan to continue playing on that line of thought until it proves to be unsuccessful.

[d2bets]

Interesting, and good insight.

Grits - top shelf stuff. Feel like I read a cliff notes version on exactly the teams I wanted.

Miller's team is stupid talented right now. Kaleb is every bit as good if not better than Len, and is better than McGary in a lot of aspects (hustling is not one of them - McGary's motor is stupid). His major issue last year was the fact that he didn't matchup against prototypical big men. If the guy was a 6'10 or smaller big, he got into foul trouble. If it was a legit 7ish foot big, Kaleb would own that matchup.

That said, the Freshman that Miller got, got in eachothers way a lot last season. All blue chip bigs, all vying for the same minutes.

I have no doubt Arizona has the best frontcourt next season. 5 out of the 6 guys in our front court are damn near all guaranteed to be making millions in the league soon enough.....

----

As far as this issue of whether there is truly a narrative - I believe there is. No league is more ripe for easy manipulation of that narrative. I have been wildly successful betting along those lines in the NBA playoffs for a few years now. I plan to continue playing on that line of thought until it proves to be unsuccessful.

Please be sure to post your picks.

[chico2663]

miller can coach his ass off to. watch him at xavier. when matta was the head coach he spent most his time crying to refs. miller was in the huddle diagramming plays.

[pavyracer]

Easiest way to profit is check on SBR who does lakerboy have and bet the other team. That's how I make easy profit in the NBA playoffs.

[dice]

... Is to know the narrative. Shit plays out like a book. Amazing hasn't happened unscripted for a second.

Sadly. I haven't been following NBA for even a moment this season, and therefore I am lacking a narrative.

So what is it? I am too apathetic to go searching for it in archives.

Oklahoma City Thunder

[The Giant]

There is always a narrative....after the fact. And no matter what happens, that can be a "narrative". In other words, the best way to profit is to correctly predict what will happen.

Good post. I was thinking the exact same thing.

Miami sweeps its way through the playoffs. Afterwards: "That was the narrative, the NBA wants a dominant team."

New York shocks the world and takes out Miami in the conference finals. Afterwards: "That was the narrative, the NBA wants New York, its biggest market, to be a competitive powerhouse. Great for ratings."

[BeatTheJerk]

Home favs cover quite well the last 5 years throughout playoffs.

[sweethook]

Easiest way to profit is check on SBR who does lakerboy have and bet the other team. That's how I make easy profit in the NBA playoffs.

i cant belive that , your to smart for this man

[RAVENSFAN]

Damn right. And ABC wants a Celtics vs Heat match up you can bank on that.

And they may have something up their sleeve with Derrick Rose and the Bulls.

Yea and it only gets better with the Bulls now becoming "The Streak Busters"

I posted my theory on the Clippers : http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...offs-sure.html

I think they could start to become the "NEW LA"
They already have become HUGE and with Kobe retiring in the next cpl years, and the Clips being so young, this would be a great time to make it happen.

[Quake]

For the last 2 years at least it does seem like the playoffs have sort of followed a narrative. (Although I'm not sure about the Mav's Heat finals) But last season especially I remember it seemed to play out well with the Lakers-Nuggets 1st round, Celtics-76'ers 2nd round, and Heat-Celtics 3rd round that by the end of the series (games 4,5,6) picking the winners was pretty easy. Although I do remember thinking for sure the Spurs would take OKC to 7 games & being dead wrong obviously. I'm also still a fan of the zig-zag theory when used sparingly and cautiously.

[rcene]

Bet series props. Like Thunder to sweep Lakers