Why Run Lines are GOOD bets in baseball.

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  • greenhippo
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 02-15-12
    • 9091
    #1
    Why Run Lines are GOOD bets in baseball.
    Yes, I know it's only the first week of bases and that this sample size isn't indicative of what will happen the rest of the summer but as of now there have been 74 games finished and just 18 of those 74 have been 1-run games. Which is roughly 25% of the games.
    Looking at last years results

    Astros: 44 games (27%)
    Cubs: 42 games (26%)
    Nationals: 48 games (30%)
    Reds: 52 games (32%)
    Arizona: 42 games (26%)
    Pitt: 47 games (29%)

    Two worst teams in baseball, the two best and two middle of the pack teams. Judging by these we can figure about 27-28% of games were 1-run games which aligns with what's happened so far this season. I'm of the mind that when RLs typically take a -150 favorite to +odds, it is more than worth the risk to take it. You're only losing out between a quarter and a third of the bets but if you're making bets daily the .60+ cents you save on every line you come out well ahead at the end of the season. Saw someone say RL's were sucker bets, I think they're a smart bet depending on the matchups.
    Tags: None
    • tto827
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 10-01-12
      • 9078
      #2
      Only thing is that the time you assume them to be smart (games with high totals) you don't get as big of a swing between runline and ML.

      I like splitting up my bets on favs as half RL half ML.
        Comment
        • greenhippo
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 02-15-12
          • 9091
          #3
          Yes absolutely, I see the time in taking a bet like this is when you're

          A) Playing the Astros, especially in Houston
          B) High scoring team with the ace on the mound ie. Verlander, Weaver ect.
          C) The team lost the day before at home to an inferior opponent. See Toronto and Mets today. Or just as a bounceback after a lackluster game. See Angels this afternoon.
          D) You're not playing a team that seems to be of equal talent. See Nats/Reds and Mariners/ChiSox today.

          Always places to pick your spot, I would have gone Nats ML over RL today after getting ass rammed by the Reds last night. Exact same scenario with Phils/Royals. Both coincidentally 1-run wins.

          I just think when picking a few games a day, finding a spot for RLs is a must.
            Comment
            • pulledclear
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 02-19-12
              • 6684
              #4
              Yes we offer you run lines as a favor.
                Comment
                • mbs4
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 05-14-10
                  • 388
                  #5
                  Don't you think line makers know the probability of a one run game? Look at today's Sox/Jays game. Jays ML closed at -140 for a break even win percent of 58.3%. RL closed at +146 for a break even win percent of 40.7%.
                    Comment
                    • Smoke
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 10-09-09
                      • 48111
                      #6
                      Good stuff archie
                        Comment
                        • greenhippo
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 02-15-12
                          • 9091
                          #7
                          Originally posted by mbs4
                          Don't you think line makers know the probability of a one run game? Look at today's Sox/Jays game. Jays ML closed at -140 for a break even win percent of 58.3%. RL closed at +146 for a break even win percent of 40.7%.
                          Absolutely understand the makers know this probability. This isn't so much an avocation that all of your bets are better served on the RL, but there are several very ripe circumstances where not only is it the smart choice but it's the right one all the way. I had Angels ML at +110, Harrison for the Rangers was torched by the shit Astros, no doubt the Angels were going to get to him, said so myself. I would have taken Angels at -1.5 for this game no questions asked, it wasn't offered but Angels were to me the favorite to win this game. Blue Jays on the RL after losing their first two games seemed a no-brainer on my part, plus I've seen Myers pitch a few times down here, guy blows. Picked my spot and it hit, the RL given that scenario at +130 should have been a must instead of paying -155 on the ML there.
                            Comment
                            • greenhippo
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 02-15-12
                              • 9091
                              #8
                              Originally posted by Smoke
                              Good stuff archie
                              Post Nomination
                              You may not nominate a post by the same author today.
                                Comment
                                • eidolon
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 01-02-08
                                  • 9531
                                  #9
                                  bet run line for in chicago
                                    Comment
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