Is it the right move to hedge with a live bet?

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  • keemosabi
    SBR High Roller
    • 12-11-10
    • 199

    #1
    Is it the right move to hedge with a live bet?
    The other day I bet a NHL game at about -160 odds. After the first, my team was up by about 3, so I live bet the other team for a few bucks at around +2200 odds. Was this the right move? Or should I have just held off on the hedge?
  • milwaukee mike
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 08-22-07
    • 27271

    #2
    the right move has nothing to do with your original bet

    if the team you bet at +2200 had a better than 1 in 23 chance of winning the game at that point, then it was a smart bet. if not, then it wasn't.
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    • tto827
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 10-01-12
      • 9078

      #3
      ^^^ what he said. Regardless of your initial position the second bet should be made only if it is +EV as a standalone wager.
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      • pavyracer
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 04-12-07
        • 82788

        #4
        I always hedge on live bet in college football because of the strange swings in the game. One game that comes to mind was LSU-Alabama this year where I had LSU pregame but hedged with Bama a few minutes before the game ended.
        Comment
        • keemosabi
          SBR High Roller
          • 12-11-10
          • 199

          #5
          Originally posted by milwaukee mike
          the right move has nothing to do with your original bet

          if the team you bet at +2200 had a better than 1 in 23 chance of winning the game at that point, then it was a smart bet. if not, then it wasn't.
          Originally posted by tto827
          ^^^ what he said. Regardless of your initial position the second bet should be made only if it is +EV as a standalone wager.
          I had a feeling that was going to be the correct answer, but it's hard to give up guaranteed money even if it is -EV.

          Originally posted by pavyracer
          I always hedge on live bet in college football because of the strange swings in the game. One game that comes to mind was LSU-Alabama this year where I had LSU pregame but hedged with Bama a few minutes before the game ended.
          Yeah that's what I've been doing in hockey games with teams that have been having trouble holding leads.
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