El Niño's MLB Thread

[El Nino]

Giants are dog shit. Bloop bullshit, a balked run in, and a wild pitch that scored a run.

[El Nino]

0-1-1 -1.2u

YTD
146-141-2 +15.31

[El Nino]

8/20

Milwaukee Brewers (+127) 5Dimes
Tampa Bay Rays (+104) 5Dimes

YTD
146-141-2 +15.31u

[thunderous]

Giants are dog shit. Bloop bullshit, a balked run in, and a wild pitch that scored a run.

That's sick.

[El Nino]

Cash 2 more doggies.

2-0 +2.31u



YTD
148-141-2 +17.62u

[ShogunRua]

Glad to see things going good in here. Keep up the good work Nino.

[sweep]

[thunderous]

Cash 2 more doggies.

2-0 +2.31u



YTD
148-141-2 +17.62u

lets keep this party going!!

[chabooky386]

great work lately el nino! havent been checking in here as much after your incredible run in NHL! I MISS HOCKEY!!!

[El Nino]

8/21

Pittsburgh Pirates (-126) 1.26u 5Dimes

[El Nino]

0-1 -1.26u

YTD
148-142-2 +16.36u

[Tune2ime]

Nino, its time for a video pound pound pound it play! Thanks for all your hard work in mlb and nhl!!

[El Nino]

Nino, its time for a video pound pound pound it play! Thanks for all your hard work in mlb and nhl!!

No prob, pal. If you followed me in NHL though you know how bad my video plays did! Rocket and Vegas39 can confirm.

Video Plays = Mush City!

[Tune2ime]

I'll fade, but always enjoy the entertaining vids!

[El Nino]

8/22

Minnesota Twins +1.5 (+105) 5Dimes
Chicago White Sox (+157) 5Dimes

YTD
148-142-2 +16.36u

I normally don't bet +1.5 but I feel it's an auto play here at this number. Going a little contrarion with the selection as well. Verlander is 2-0 this season against the Twins with a 0.75 ERA and no Mauer in the lineup. Tigers are supposed to roll here and Joe Public will be hammering the Tigers RL after yesterday's "easy" 7-1 win. Setup for a public burial?

If you took +1.5 runs against Verlander in each of his 26 starts this season, you'd be 14-12. It's always tough cashing a home Run Line and Verlander is still getting credit for his name here on overpriced lines toward the end of the regular season. His skill set doesn't match the juice you have to lay on him anymore. He's a pedestrian 5-5 at home this season with a 3.56 ERA. He has a WAR this season of 3.6 (almost half of what it was last season), all his advanced #'s are worse from last season, his walk rate is up almost a full point BB/9 innings, his strike out rate is down and his average fastball has slowed down every year since it peaked in 2009. Verlander's fastball is averaging 93.1 MPH this season. Opponents are hitting .257 off Verlander at Comerica. Mauer is out, but the Twins still have a lineup that can power it out of the ball park. The Tigers always seem to lull them self to sleep around this time of year and make the Central Division far more interesting than it should be. Miggy is banged up with bad wheels. I mean Christ, Kevin Correia was beating this lineup tonight until the bottom of the 7th inning. It's not out of line to think this Albers kid can bounce back and throw a crafty quality start.

With the White Sox, again, I'm going against a pitcher here in Shields that just hasn't fared that well at home this season. Shields is 2-5 with a 4.15ERA, batters are hitting .262 off of him at Kauffman Stadium. Quintana on the other hand pitches very similarly home vs. away, yet he has not been credited with a loss on the road yet this season. More of a statistical aberration, but kind of funny. I have these two pitchers matched up very evenly and believe this game is much more of a coin toss than the line suggests.

*On a side note, I see a lot of people complaining about how rough August has been in bases and how they can't wait for football season to start. Baseball is still beatable late in the season, but you have to be ultra selective and stick with the +$ bets. I'm on pace for my best all around month in August. So far in 37 total plays in August, I'm 24-12-1 66.67% +16.84u. I'm on pace to have a higher unit count, win percentage, and lowest # of units risked all season. All but 2 of my 37 wagers were risking 1u or to win 1u. The two that were not were both to win 2u bets. I also played more dogs in August than any other month. Out of my 37 graded wagers, 26 of them have been +$ wagers (+100 or lower lines) that's 70.27%. Now, I'm not posting these #'s to brag, but to show that it's possible to profit without chasing a bunch of juice or making a lot of multiple unit bets. Just like avoiding bad bets, it's important to avoid risking an unnecessary # of units. Take advantage of the +$ plays while bases is still around, boys. Before long, we are all going to be laying juice on every spread bet and posting about how we cannot wait until bases is back.

[fitguy67]

who kows even the perma-"due" BlowJays seem as likely as not to hit on a "stopped watch" big-dog (+150ish) auto-bet tomorrow...

August MLB is a lot like the last month of all the US-team-sports...all of which have regular seasons that go on far longer than necessary...relegating an increasingly-large number of games to the damn-near-"uncappable" scrap-heap (as the fundamental assumption that both teams give highest priority to the goal of winning the game under consideration can no longer be counted on) ...giving us lots of nice-money far-nearer-to-coin-flips-than-the-odds-imply...

"getting hip" to the different "games within the games" of the last few weeks' schedule...and betting accordingly...is the key...with +odds as available as they were earlier in the year...but with increasing emphasis on "preparation for playoffs" and less on "winning tonight's game"...we get games that are increasingly closer to coin-tosses going off at book-odds still-largely-based on decreasingly-valid motivational-assumptions...

the result=market imperfection (aka fuktup odds) to exploit...recipe: flatter'n'lower than normal bets on carefully-selected increasingly-dog-rich plays

[El Nino]

Cash the Twinkies +1.5. They made it interesting, but squeaked out a victory. Verlander was hot garbage. People who laid the juice or parlayed him with Kershaw

[thunderous]

Cash the Twinkies +1.5. They made it interesting, but squeaked out a victory. Verlander was hot garbage. People who laid the juice or parlayed him with Kershaw

[El Nino]

8/23

Texas Rangers (+111) 5Dimes

YTD
149-142-2 +17.41u

1-0 +1.05u (Chicago White Sox +157 Pending)

[turtlejc]

8/23

Texas Rangers (+111) 5Dimes

YTD
149-142-2 +17.41u

1-0 +1.05u (Kansas City +157 Pending)

you mean the pale hose

[El Nino]

you mean the pale hose

Obviously the White Sox. Unreal, I'm tired. As I post, they take the lead.

[Tune2ime]

yea buddy!!!!!!! Great hits, I tailed both!

[turtlejc]

sox win!

pedro alvarez with a 2 run double

5dimes had him at over 2 H/R/RBI at +130

easy cash

[El Nino]

2-0 +2.62u



Cash dos mas perros!

8/23

Texas Rangers (+111) 5Dimes

YTD
150-142-2 +18.98u

[El Nino]

1-0 +1.11u

8/24

Washington Nationals (-114) 1.14u 5Dimes

YTD
151-142-2 +20.09u

Quietly steam rolling through August. 27-12-1 69.23% +20.57u. Zimmermann has been so-so on the road but he's hands down a better pitcher than Davis. Davis will get hit, he carries a 1.60 WHIP at home this season. Davis has a 3.85 BB/9 and a batting average of balls in play of .376. The Nats put up 11 tonight and averaged over 5 runs/game in the series before with the Cubs. Davis is the perfect candidate to get teed off on.

[oldscho0led]

Luck and great handicapping on your side now Nino. Keep rolling.

[El Nino]

1-0 +1u Keeping the August streak rolling...28-12-1 70% +21.57u

YTD
152-142-2 +21.09u

[No coincidences]

[the fatts]

Bravo!

[El Nino]

8/25

San Diego Padres Team Total Over 3.5 (-120) 1.2u BookMaker

YTD
152-142-2 +21.09u

Late start to the capping. Didn't see a whole lot that stood out in the early games. Had a lean on the Braves, but passed when I saw their lineup. May have a Sunday night play. For this play, the Padres have some of the best offensive #'s against lefties all year long, great power #'s as well. The Cubs trot out Rusin, their spot starting, soft tossing lefty. He has only gone more than 6 innings once this season usually gives up 2 or 3ER. Pads get 2 or 3 off of him and then get 2 or 3 innings of the Cubs' pen.

[El Nino]

8/25

San Diego Padres Team Total Over 3.5 (-120) 1.2u BookMaker

YTD
152-142-2 +21.09u

Late start to the capping. Didn't see a whole lot that stood out in the early games. Had a lean on the Braves, but passed when I saw their lineup. May have a Sunday night play. For this play, the Padres have some of the best offensive #'s against lefties all year long, great power #'s as well. The Cubs trot out Rusin, their spot starting, soft tossing lefty. He has only gone more than 6 innings once this season usually gives up 2 or 3ER. Pads get 2 or 3 off of him and then get 2 or 3 innings of the Cubs' pen.

Pads bet looking dead in the water. Could have had 1st and 2nd with nobody out in the bottom of the 6th, ump misses a hit by pitch, grounds into a double play. When is replay getting here? Walks the next batter, could have had bases loaded, nobody out and the potential of a big inning. Oh well, on to the Sunday night game.

Boston Red Sox First Five (-115) 1.15u BookMaker

Basically a fade on Capuano against an AL lineup. Just a little something for action.

[El Nino]

1-1 -0.2u

YTD
153-143-2 +20.89u

[El Nino]

8/26

Tampa Bay Rays (-119) 1.19u BookMaker
Colorado Rockies -1.5 (+120) 5Dimes

YTD
153-143-2 +20.89u

[El Nino]

1-1 +0.01u

Not sure what I was thinking with that Rays pick. I obviously forgot how poor Hellickson has been pitching of late. Basically a wash.

YTD
154-144-2 +20.90u

[ItsMeMrMattE]

makin a dolla is always better than losin a dolla. gotta look at it that way.