LT Profits vs. onthewhat Daily Thread - Saturday, 12/20/08

[onthewhat]

1 - Contest runs through January 15, 2009. Each player must make EXACTLY 100 plays. If they do not make 100 plays, they lose automatically. If both players make 100 plays before January 15, 2009, the contest is over.

2 - Contest is for College Basketball Only.

3 - All wagers will be for one unit, and are to WIN one unit with favorites and RISKING one unit with underdogs.

4 - Available wagers are ATS, Totals, and Money Lines (Dogs no more than +400, Favorites no more than -250). Only full game wagers are allowed, no halves or periods.

5 - Available Books are Pinnacle, 5 Dimes and BetJamaica only. Line and book should be posted with each selection, and tiimestamp will be used to verify lines at EITHER SBRLines, Vegas Insider or SBR Odds Archives the following morning. If the line matches ANY of these three sources, it is acceptable.
5a - An OBVIOUSLY bad line feed will be ignored and only the other two sources can be used in that case. This would be for wrong favorites or obviously off lines.

6 - Players can post plays as often as they wish throught the day up until the SCHEDULED start times of the games. Players may NOT post after scheduled start times, even if the books leave the lines up because games have not actually started. Any past-posted play will be NO ACTION.

7 - Once plays are posted, they can NOT be removed.

8 - If you write a bad line for a game, the game will be graded based on the best avaialble line from the three sources in Rule #5 at the book that you post at the time that you post for the TEAM that you post. If you accidenatally write the wrong team, you are stuck with that team.

9 - You may NOT edit a post that contains plays in it. If you edit a post, ALL PLAYS in the post will be graded as a LOSS.

10 - You can not play both sides of the same game.

11 - The winner will be the player with the most units.

Wager is for $100, payable at the completion of the contest. (Honor system)

[onthewhat]

Kansas -8.5 -109 (Pinnacle)
North Carolina -27.5 -105 (Pinnacle)
UAB -20 -110 (5 Dimes)
Rice +11.5 +101 (Pinnacle)
Arizona +2 -105 (Pinnacle)
UCONN +4 -105 (Pinnacle)
Boston College -5 -105 (Pinnacle)
St Bonaventure +2.5 -114 (Pinnacle)
Iowa +1 -110 (5 Dimes)
Cal Santa Barbara +13 -105 (Pinnacle)
Hofstra +7 -105 (Pinnacle)
Auburn +4 -110 (5 Dimes)
BYU +4.5 -105 (Pinnacle)
LSU +1 -114 (Pinnacle)
Georgia Tech -14 -111 (Pinnacle)
St Marys -5 -105 (Pinnacle)
California -8.5 -105 (Pinnacle)
Florida -15 -111 (Pinnacle)
Colorado St -2.5 -105 (Pinnacle)
Houston -7.5 -105 (Pinnacle)
Illinois -18 -111 (Pinnacle)
Memphis -7.5 -108 (Pinnacle)
Bradley PK -105 (Pinnacle)
Arkansas State +4 -104 (Pinnacle)
Northwestern +5.5 -101 (Pinnacle)
Murray St +2 -110 (5 Dimes)
Columbia +15.5 +101 (Pinnacle)
Middle Tennessee St -9.5 -110 (5 Dimes)
Ohio St -16 -110 (5 Dimes)
Kentucky -15 -105 (Pinnacle)
Dayton -23 -110 (5 Dimes)
Utah St -4.5 -111 (Pinnacle)
Washington -17.5 -105 (Pinnacle)

[LT Profits]

Name      	W	L	P	Units	Games
LT Profits	29	29	1	-0.05	59
onthewhat  	28	35	1	-10.25	64

[LT Profits]

New Mexico +121 ML (Pinnacle)

[LT Profits]

Jacksonville State +5 -105 (Pinnacle)

[pico]

onner on tilt

[bigboydan]

onner on tilt

Ya Pico, He might just have to mortgage Park Place or Boardwalk pretty soon.

[LT Profits]

Northwestern +5 -111 (Pinnacle)

[reno cool]

at the first sign of trouble onthewhat goes nuts. Why even bother?

[onthewhat]

just having fun cock ****s

[LT Profits]

Florida/Central Florida UNDER 138 -105 (5 Dimes)

[pokernut9999]

Name          W    L    P    Units    Games
LT Profits    29    29    1    -0.05    59
onthewhat      28    35    1    -10.25    64

Got to love it LT

[onthewhat]

LT...I basically gave you contest. I was going to fade all of your plays hoping you go on cold streak, like I faded last night. Felt like having fun and made the 33 plays. You go 0-4 today. If I faded I go 4-0....and it's tied.

I gave you contest buddy...your welcome.

[Chi_archie]

wow, this contest changed fast.......


I remember gloating early on

[onthewhat]

just having fun here...not a serious contest just having fun.

Also proving that he is a joke. He sell his picks....and is down 6 units after like 60 plays or whatever....

Basically the same as anyone else would be. It's all a coinflip.

But hey, he did go 56% over 300 plays last year...

[laxdjock]

Also proving that he is a joke. He sell his picks....and is down 6 units after like 60 plays or whatever....

I'm about that in the NFL (if you count my horrendous parlay plays), and I wouldn't even buy my picks.

[reno cool]

These contests don't make much sense as one player against another. Both of you are playing against the book so you can both be winners or losers.

However, this contest illustrated how a dissent handicapper might give himself a chance to win after a slow start. Whereas some players are so bad that they virtually have no chance even in the very short run.

[InTheHole]

[Ganchrow]

just having fun here...not a serious contest just having fun.

Also proving that he is a joke. He sell his picks....and is down 6 units after like 60 plays or whatever....

Basically the same as anyone else would be. It's all a coinflip.

But hey, he did go 56% over 300 plays last year...

We all need to understand the nature of variance.

I've hardly been following this (or any other) contest at all, other than to give it the very occasional peek.

After including LT's game tonight and just very roughly ball parking it, assuming that LT placed all his bets at -105 he's down about half a standard deviation for a breakeven bettor. If he tended to place more bets at shorter (i.e., more positive/less negative) odds, he'd be down even less than that.

And half a standard deviation is nothing.

Even if we assume he's a long term 5% edge bettor he's still down only down about .9 standard devs, which is little more than a blip.

This particular contest might be fun but the results we're seeing simply aren't statistically significant (for either player).

Shit happens, especially over the shot term. This is why professional bettors try to make as many +EV bets as possible. Dosing so helps reduce the impact of luck so as to allow to skill to best shine through.

I'm not trying to "defend" LT here (nor for that matter attack onthewhat) because even though I do personally like and respect him very much I simply don't have a horse in this (or any other) forum race.

I'm just pointing out that it's statistically unfair and mathematically inaccurate to draw too many conclusions about a handicapper's skill based on a contest of this sort given the results we're seeing.

[Chi_archie]

good post....

I took stats 3 times I and II in college and once in grad school.... Standard Deviation is about the only thing I remember

[reno cool]

If you're going to pull 30 plays out of your ass as soon as things start looking bad, I can guess your expectancy. No need for statistical significance.

[onthewhat]

I don't bet reno. I have nothing to gain, and everything to lose. I made it pal.

[pico]

onner on tilt. take a break pal.