Vegas Dave's Thursday Night (12/18) Philosophy Gem (18 - 6 YTD)

[VegasDave]

*Before reading this, just remember that there are no locks in sports, and anything can happen on any given day. Don't go blindly betting your bankroll on this game just because I love it. Even if I really, really love it.*

Indianapolis (-6.0) @ Jacksonville (+6.0)

Wow. Wow. Wow. I'm just in complete awe of this game. This is a philosophy pick dream. You really can't draw it up any better than this one. Keep in mind that any game that meets any of the following criteria, just a single one, is a game I'd likely take as a philosophy pick. But this gem has plenty more than just one:

1. HEAVY ONE-SIDED ACTION - 85% of the public is on Indianapolis with the spread, 86% are on them ML.

2. REVERSE LINE MOVEMENT - Despite massive action on Indianapolis, the line has moved from -6.5 to -6.0, inviting even more action on Indianapolis.

3. TWO STRAIGHT 30+ POINT WINS - If a team has won two straight games scoring 30 points or more, they often have offensive let downs as it is hard to be that in sync and productive in the NFL week in and week out.

4. TEAM THAT NEEDS A WIN VS. LOUSY TEAM - Learn anything from last week? Every season, the last few weeks, hopeless underdogs play carefree and are very dangerous in spoiler roles against opponents who need wins that have all the pressure on them.

5. DIVISIONAL HOME UNDERDOG LATE IN SEASON - Similar to above, these games are even more ugly and upset prone when the lousy team with nothing to lose happens to be playing a division rival at home.

There will be a very high number of philosophy picks this week, but none will be as beautiful as this one. If you are an outside the box philosophy thinker like myself, you should be salivating at this one.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Good Luck!

[JGILL50]

Im with ya Dave. Seems like they could have put this line at 13 and the public would have still hammered it. I will take the points. Good Luck my man

[SportsLockPicks]

yeah, i agree, people are falling for this feeling that indy has come this far so they have to keep rolling, right into the playoffs..yeah, they just may win this one, but i love the points...especially if i can buy a half to get it to 7, you know for a god damn fact that del rio isn't laying down

[VegasDave]

Good luck guys!

[pavyracer]

I rarely agree with your philosophy picks but this one is so easy. I would have expected the Colts play to be the philosophy pick.

[VegasDave]

I rarely agree with your philosophy picks but this one is so easy. I would have expected the Colts play to be the philosophy pick.

Interesting... a reverse-philosophy pick.

[VegasDave]

Just put $200 on this, lets get it guys!

[SexyMit]

Well week in and week out we are on the same philosphy picks. Glad to see that you are on this, got it the other day already. GL Dave as I am on this one pretty big also

[madmaxx]

While your philosophy picks may bode well the rest of the weekend..you have to factor in how shitty Jax is. They are also an already injured team playing on a short week (Colts got a week off in the form of the Lions). Addai could have played last week but they let him heal up, should play tonight. Don't see Dennis Northcutt having the game of his life again, especially if Sanders is back in there. Taking the Colts and Over...good luck though, seems like you have a lot of followers on this one.

Is this your first bet of the season?

[mmike032]

on it with you but got +5.5 which I have a feeling will bite me in the ass tonight.

[VegasDave]

No Maxx, first in a while though.

I know its not fun at all to bet shitty teams, but they come to life this time of year, and this game meets all my criteria in a big way. If Indy beats me 35 - 3, I'll have no regrets.

[onthewhat]

Dave are you on ML, spread, or both

[VegasDave]

Dave are you on ML, spread, or both

Lucky for me the local I found still had Jags +6.0, so I hopped on that.

The fact that it has moved to +5.5 is annoying. I still love the pick; this means either smart money is coming in on the Jags OR more RLM... both good for my cause... but not many games end by a margin of 5, so you really feel like you are pretty much knocked down to a 4.5.

I'd still take the spread. I could easily see Jax up 3 or 4 late in the game and Peyton driving for a TD that would feel like having your heart ripped out if you were on the ML, but feeling just fine with +5.5 in your pocket. There is value in the ML for sure, but I don't think its worth the extra risk.