When to middle?

[HousesCane]

Hey everyone this is my first post here at sbr so my apologises if this post is in the wrong place or if the information has already been covered.

I had a spot today where I was betting nba Washington vs golden state. Bet golden state at -8.5 points at $1.92 before the start of the game. At half time golden state were up by 18 points and the new line was Washington + 18.5 points at $1.92. Is this a clear stop to go ahead and buy Washington at the +18.5? Considering that if golden state with between 9 and 18 points I win both bet or any other result I essentially break even minus the vig. On a side I figured it was a clear middle because of the big spread of points to clear both bets (9-18 points).

What factors should be considered when choosing to or not to middle?

Thanks guys all feedback is welcome.

[tto827]

Probably a good opportunity there.

Important thing to remember is that your first bet has major value at that point, so if you only expect the lead to increase, and your not worried about your original bet losing, then your just throwing darts hoping the 2nd half falls for you.

Mathematically if the 2nd half bet itself is not +EV it's a bad move, but for a 9 point middle I think you pull the trigger most of the time.

[BigDeem5]

Never fukking heard of ya, we are fukking gamblers, no need to middle

[shackfu99]

Forget middling 2H. There is no set # that's gives you an edge. In your example you are giving your equity back to your book.
When middling you want to maximize your equity. ie: Say 1 book has -9.5 -110 and another has +8.5 -110. You would lay 10u on each side. You risk 1u to win 20u. That's having equity in a wager.

[Vinnie Paz]

Forget middling 2H. There is no set # that's gives you an edge. In your example you are giving your equity back to your book.
When middling you want to maximize your equity. ie: Say 1 book has -9.5 -110 and another has +8.5 -110. You would lay 10u on each side. You risk 1u to win 20u. That's having equity in a wager.

?????????

[cockblocker]

You guys know nothing about gambling if you pass a 10 pt middle when the team leading is shooting over 50% and the losing team is under 40%.

Put at least half your original bet, this middle is going to hit more than it loses.

[shackfu99]

Put at least half your original bet, this middle is going to hit more than it loses.
prove it.

[tto827]

Put at least half your original bet, this middle is going to hit more than it loses.
prove it.

[cockblocker]

Put at least half your original bet, this middle is going to hit more than it loses.
prove it.

I will. Ill put all the plays in this thread.

[HousesCane]

Thanks guys for all the solid feedback.

[The Kraken]

You've gotta treat this as two individual plays, not one middle. They should both be +ev or no bet. So to summarize, only middle when the second bet is a +ev play, regardless of your first bet.

[The Giant]

You've gotta treat this as two individual plays, not one middle. They should both be +ev or no bet. So to summarize, only middle when the second bet is a +ev play, regardless of your first bet.

This guy gets it.

[cockblocker]

Hawks -1.5

Atl shooting .395

Ind .585

This a small play. Its only a 6 pt middle. Thought the score was 60 to 53.

[shackfu99]

I hope you hit it.

[cockblocker]

Nuggets -8.5

NO .548

Den .344

19 pt middle

[cockblocker]

Not only the 2nd half, Hawks cover game line too.