Stupid Mistake I Made Last Week (NFL), Lets Learn From It!

[VegasDave]

Like clockwork, year in and year out, the last 3 weeks of the season, teams that NEED wins playing against garbage opponents, you have to bet on the garbage teams!

Some value on MLs, but spreads especially. Last week...

Teams with 3 wins or less VS. teams needing a win:

Kansas City covers over SD
Detroit covers over Indianapolis
Cincinnati beats Washington
Oakland does not cover VS. New England

Teams with 4 - 6 wins VS. teams needing win:

Houston beats Tennessee (trying to clinch home field)
Buffalo covers over NYJ
San Francisco covers over Miami
Cleveland does not cover VS. Philadelphia

6 - 2. So damn obvious, I can't believe I forgot what I've learned over the last few years.

If you don't have the guts to bet ON garbage teams, at least do yourselves a favor and don't bet against them these last two weeks against teams fighting for something.

I wouldn't dare bet Denver, Indy, Miami, or NYJ this week, and I'd definitely consider playing their opponents.

[InTheHole]

Nice find

[VegasDave]

Every year... I'm kicking myself for missing it last week.

[madmaxx]

so buffalo is a lock this week?

[jjgold]

Trends change

This year all the teams that need wins might cover

[VegasDave]

so buffalo is a lock this week?

No such thing as a lock, and I never said anything remotely close to that.

Trends change

This year all the teams that need wins might cover

Very true. Needless to say, you can bet whatever you believe. I'm just giving my opinion/observation. Generally speaking, this late in the season, I've found that teams with nothing to lose and the chance to play spoiler tend to play a lot looser and better than teams with all the pressure on them. The team that needs the win is often more uptight. Also, the hapless dogs usually get lots of points against the playoff hopefuls.

I feel this "trend" holds a bit more weight than sock colors in day games type of trends, but again, if you believe all the lowly dogs will get beaten to a pulp this year, by all means good luck

[Nicky Santoro]

Trends change

This year all the teams that need wins might cover

amen..

even if they go 4-0 this week, means squat.. it would just be coincidence... it's such a small sample size.. you can flip 20 coins right now and heads can win 18-2.. does it mean that the next 20 flips, it will be heads again 18-2??... no, it can now be heads 2-18 over the next 20 flips.

when you've done this trend over 10,000 games, then you can say it might mean something..

[Chi_archie]

amen..

even if they go 4-0 this week, means squat.. it would just be coincidence... it's such a small sample size.. you can flip 20 coins right now and heads can win 18-2.. does it mean that the next 20 flips, it will be heads again 18-2??... no, it can now be heads 2-18 over the next 20 flips.

when you've done this trend over 10,000 games, then you can say it might mean something..

Nicky,

do you ever look at trends??? I mean are their any in the NHL for instance that might help sway you to pick? Or do you basically just play the lines more then handicapping games?

I mostly hate trends, they mean nothing and some are so outrageous it makes me laugh.

One for instance that I like to play in the NFL is fading the west coast teams playing on the east coast at 1:00 ... because there is a physiological explanation behind the trend

[Nicky Santoro]

trends do NOT exist.. it's for squares.. the line is already applied into it.. books know about every trend when they put up a line.. it's like saying heads is hot, so i'll bet heads cause they're 12-1 in their last 13 flips..

trends are bogus.. it's all about getting the best line cause like i said, the line already has that trend applied to it..

If CC Sabathia is pitching at home for NYY vs worst team in baseball and worse pitcher, line will be NYY -420, so it gives you zero advantage.

If BOS is at home vs OKLA city, of course bos is better team, but line will be BOS -18, so now it's like a flip of a coin... and if BOS is 14-0 at home and OKLA city is 0-14 on road, then line will be BOS -20.5..

trends are bogus.. if anything, they affect you more than they help you, cause if a book knows real line is -15.5 and know that every square will know Bos is 14-0 at home and are 11-0 lifetime vs this team, they will make Bos -16.5 knowing every square will be on BOS.

[VegasDave]

Alright, never mind then.

[The Seer]

Like clockwork, year in and year out, the last 3 weeks of the season, teams that NEED wins playing against garbage opponents, you have to bet on the garbage teams!.

The teams that NEED wins are usually over-valued.

[VegasDave]

The teams that NEED wins are usually over-valued.

And teams that are bottom feeders that were written off long ago by most bettors are often under-valued, making these great betting opportunities.

But I really don't want to get into a 4 page argument about trends. I was just sharing an observation.

[purecarnagge]

Its not about spotting trends its about spot betting. Learn that shit...you be ahead of the game.