Haven't slept in 24+ hours. Just got back from the Kings game. Now leaving to have dinner with the girlfriend and her parents.
Might as well post the picks now, because I'm likely passing out whenever the hell it is that I get home.
THURSDAY
New Orleans (+3.0) @ Chicago (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New Orleans (Tie)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New Orleans (Loss)
SUNDAY
Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ Atlanta (-3.0)
You know what? I'm finally going to take Atlanta. I believe Tampa Bay is the slightly better team, but Jeff Garcia is not 100% with a calf injury, and one of his assets is his ability to move out of the pocket to buy himself more time. Even if he does play, which he likely will, a calf injury will be a hindrance, and I can easily see it affecting his game. Atlanta has been excellent at home this year, losing only one game there, and all 4 of Tampa Bay's losses have come on the road. If Atlanta is going to take the next step, this is a perfect place to start; and they have the talent to do it if they can play mistake free football this Sunday.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta
Seattle (-2.5) @ St. Louis (+2.5)
I would be tempted into saying this is one of those "too good to be true" type picks, but then I remind myself that this really is just a match up of two terrible teams. A St. Louis win here really wouldn't be all that stunning; Seattle's defense has been abysmal all year, and the offense has been sporadic at best. That said, St. Louis is even worse on defense, and Seattle is finally healthy. This is the first game they've played against an opponent under .500 in 7 weeks. They should be able to run the ball with ease, and I think they can rise to the occasion and come out on top here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle
Buffalo (+7.5) @ New York Jets (-7.5)
Is this the week Buffalo comes back from the dead? Maybe, maybe not. But back at home against a team that hasn't mustered up more than 3 points in 2 straight games, its about damn time the Jets got things back on track and crush an opponent. I don't see them losing a 3rd straight game here, and while I could see it staying close, I just don't think Buffalo is going to be able to put together enough offense to keep this one within double digits, and I don't think the Jets offense is going to be stymied a 3rd straight week, either.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Jets
San Francisco (+6.5) @ Miami (-6.5)
While Mike Singletary's methods aren't exactly orthodox, its hard to argue with results. The man has his team playing tough, and coming off of two impressive wins @Buffalo and vs. the Jets. I think the 3rd leg of their tour of the AFC East ends with a loss, however. It is hard to gauge exactly how much of an effect travel has on players, but San Francisco played 3 straight games against division rivals, then traveled to Texas to play Dallas, out to the east coast to play the Bills in Buffalo, back to the west coast to play the Jets at home, and now they travel back to the east coast to play Miami. Miami, meanwhile, hasn't traveled farther west than St. Louis in their last 3 games. Miami needs this game more, they are at home, they are starting to believe in their playoff chances, and their passing attack matches up well against San Francisco's defense. Reality sets in for the 49ers this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami
San Diego (-5.5) @ Kansas City (+5.5)
Honestly, this game is one you should stay far away from. Both of these teams reek of inconsistency. San Diego looks like they are turning a corner one week, and the next they are losing must win games. Kansas City looks hopeless, and then gives opponents fits, albeit in losing efforts. So with no idea which version of which team is going to show up, how the hell do you cap this game? You just have to go with your gut I suppose; and my gut tells me San Diego wins this game by a TD or more. Lousy analysis? Trust me, I know. But this game is impossible.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego
Green Bay (-2.0) @ Jacksonville (+2.0)
Fred Taylor out. Matt Jones out. Jerry Porter (even if he IS an underachiever this year) out. Jacksonville has lost 4 straight games by double digits. They've lost 6 of their last 7 games, with the only win coming over Detroit. They have had problems on and off the field all season long. Tons of key injuries on the lines and to some big name position players. They appear to have given up on the season. So how on earth are they only getting 2 points here? Yes, Green Bay has also fallen off in a major way, losing 5 of their last 6. But those 5 losses were @Tennessee, @Minnesota, @New Orleans, vs. Carolina, and vs. Houston; all good opponents, and only one of those losses was by more than 4 points. Even with all their struggles, Green Bay seems way too easy here, and 85% of bettors are betting Green Bay minus the points and 81% are betting them money line. I just NEED to go the other way.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Jacksonville
Washington (-7.0) @ Cincinnati (+7.0)
Cincinnati's offense is tragically bad, and there isn't any way to pick this team without holding your nose. But Washington is one of those teams that I don't really feel comfortable giving up 7 points to ANY team with, especially on the road. Their offensive production over the last 8 games; 10, 7, 20 (Seattle), 10, 6, 25 (Detroit), 14, 17. And while there is no excuse for Cinci being outscored 69 - 6 in their last 2 games, those games were against two AFC powerhouses in Indianapolis and Baltimore. @Pittsburgh and the tie with Philly came before that. This team has faced a brutal schedule, and Washington is actually one of the easier games they've had in a while. If they can find their way into the endzone a few times at home, even by accident, I think they get the cover here; and I see this happening.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington
Tennessee (-3.0) @ Houston (+3.0)
You may not believe it, but I'm going with the Texans here. There is just a lot to like; as the Jets proved, the best way to beat the Titans is with a strong passing game, and the Texans certainly have that. The Titans also haven't really been tested on the road this year. There is also the huge chance that they get caught looking ahead; with Pittsburgh and Indianapolis to close out the season, the Titans will have to decide who to rest, who to start, etc. and have a lot to think about in the coming weeks. This game sets up perfectly as a trap game, with Houston playing for a lot of pride lately trying to finish the season on a high note. I think they pull off the upset.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Houston
Detroit (+17.0) @ Indianapolis (-17.0)
With Baltimore and the entire AFC East breathing down the Colts neck in the AFC wild card race, this team is extremely motivated to keep winning and keep pounding opponents to stay in their groove. They can't afford to take anyone lightly, even Detroit. An emotionally draining loss last week and now the daunting task of going into Indianapolis, I don't see Detroit having anything in the tank here. I hate to give another professional team a college football amount of points, but I'm NOT taking Detroit just for the sake of taking them this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
Minnesota (+3.0) @ Arizona (-3.0)
While the stats show a game that Arizona passes at will and overpowers a mediocre secondary at home, I'm going to ignore the stats on this one. Sometimes it just comes down to who wants it more. Minnesota has overcome early season struggles and season long quarterback issues to take the lead in their division, which they are hanging on to by only a half game after Chicago's win Thursday night, and they are fighting for their playoff lives. Arizona, meanwhile, has already wrapped up their division. And while Arizona may have the best WR core in the league, who have they really beaten this year? San Fran twice, St. Louis twice, Seattle, and Buffalo. Only two teams over .500; Miami (back in week 2 before they established the wildcat) and a fluky win over Dallas. Minnesota is going to be a tough game, and with a we're-already-in-the-playoffs voice in the back of their heads, it might just be a loss.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Minnesota
New England (-7.0) @ Oakland (+7.0)
Another impossible one to predict. I always take flack for picking the Raiders "because they are my favorite team". Trust me on this; BECAUSE they are my favorite team, I happen to know just how bad they are as well if not better than anyone. I don't select them because they are my team, I select them because I think they are the right pick. And, sadly, I believe that is true again this week. New England tends to keep games closer than they should be; they only have 3 double digit wins this year, 1 on the road. The defense is in really bad shape, and while the Raiders offense is among the league's worst, if Fargas and McFadden can establish the rushing attack, they might be able to put up some points. Perhaps most pertinently, Matt Cassell's father just passed away, and he spent a bit of time away from the team this week to be with his family. He will start Sunday, but it is hard to believe he will be 100% focused on football in a hostile environment after such an emotional week. The Raiders defense can be stingy at times, and if Cassells makes bad decisions out there, he could pay for them. I think this will be a low scoring game, and Oakland will cover the 7 points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England
Denver (+7.5) @ Carolina (-7.5)
I do believe that Carolina is the better team, but I also believe this number is a bit swelled due to Carolina's dominant performance over Tampa Bay last week. Rushing for just about 300 yards on a tough Tampa Bay defense, what will they do against Denver's 26th ranked rushing defense? I can understand that logic, but I'd also point out that Denver is playing some good football, and can pass on just about anyone when they are clicking. I do think that Carolina will win, and a cover wouldn't even surprise me, but I believe the value in this game is on Denver getting over a TD.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina
Pittsburgh (+2.0) @ Baltimore (-2.0)
This should be an awesome game. Two extremely stingy defenses. I do have to go with Baltimore here though; they have shown a lot more aptitude on offense, and they do have home field advantage in this one. These are arguably the two teams to beat in the AFC this year, and this is definitely an exciting playoff preview.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore
New York Giants (+3.0) @ Dallas (-3.0)
Okay, I know Jacobs isn't starting. But after last week's dismal performance on offense, I have to believe the Giants will bounce back with a good effort this week. And with Marion Barber's toe injury and no Felix Jones to back him up, the Cowboys will be a one dimensional team, and I believe the Giants can exploit that and pick up the win here. They don't want to start a skid to end their season. Plus with all the soap opera drama in Dallas, its hard to pick them to win big games like this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New York Giants
MONDAY
Cleveland (+14.0) @ Philadelphia (-14.0)
2 touchdowns on Monday night is an embarrassing spread. But can you really take the Browns here? Philadelphia is looking sharp again, dominating Arizona and then surprisingly shutting down the Giants in New York. Now they face a team that is lost on offense with Ken Dorsey as their starter. Even if the Browns do play for pride out there, is it going to matter? I don't see them putting up more than 10 points, and I do see Philly putting up 28+.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
Good luck this week!
Might as well post the picks now, because I'm likely passing out whenever the hell it is that I get home.
THE RECORD
Last Week
With the spread: 8 - 8 - 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 12 - 4 - 0 (.750)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 - 1 - 0 (.500)
Season
With the spread: 108 - 96 - 4 (.529)
Without the spread: 131 - 76 - 1 (.633)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 17 - 6 - 0 (.739)
THE PICKS
* - Indicates Upset Pick
^ - Indicates Philosophical Pick
Last Week
With the spread: 8 - 8 - 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 12 - 4 - 0 (.750)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 - 1 - 0 (.500)
Season
With the spread: 108 - 96 - 4 (.529)
Without the spread: 131 - 76 - 1 (.633)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 17 - 6 - 0 (.739)
THE PICKS
* - Indicates Upset Pick
^ - Indicates Philosophical Pick
THURSDAY
New Orleans (+3.0) @ Chicago (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New Orleans (Tie)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New Orleans (Loss)
SUNDAY
Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ Atlanta (-3.0)
You know what? I'm finally going to take Atlanta. I believe Tampa Bay is the slightly better team, but Jeff Garcia is not 100% with a calf injury, and one of his assets is his ability to move out of the pocket to buy himself more time. Even if he does play, which he likely will, a calf injury will be a hindrance, and I can easily see it affecting his game. Atlanta has been excellent at home this year, losing only one game there, and all 4 of Tampa Bay's losses have come on the road. If Atlanta is going to take the next step, this is a perfect place to start; and they have the talent to do it if they can play mistake free football this Sunday.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta
Seattle (-2.5) @ St. Louis (+2.5)
I would be tempted into saying this is one of those "too good to be true" type picks, but then I remind myself that this really is just a match up of two terrible teams. A St. Louis win here really wouldn't be all that stunning; Seattle's defense has been abysmal all year, and the offense has been sporadic at best. That said, St. Louis is even worse on defense, and Seattle is finally healthy. This is the first game they've played against an opponent under .500 in 7 weeks. They should be able to run the ball with ease, and I think they can rise to the occasion and come out on top here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle
Buffalo (+7.5) @ New York Jets (-7.5)
Is this the week Buffalo comes back from the dead? Maybe, maybe not. But back at home against a team that hasn't mustered up more than 3 points in 2 straight games, its about damn time the Jets got things back on track and crush an opponent. I don't see them losing a 3rd straight game here, and while I could see it staying close, I just don't think Buffalo is going to be able to put together enough offense to keep this one within double digits, and I don't think the Jets offense is going to be stymied a 3rd straight week, either.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Jets
San Francisco (+6.5) @ Miami (-6.5)
While Mike Singletary's methods aren't exactly orthodox, its hard to argue with results. The man has his team playing tough, and coming off of two impressive wins @Buffalo and vs. the Jets. I think the 3rd leg of their tour of the AFC East ends with a loss, however. It is hard to gauge exactly how much of an effect travel has on players, but San Francisco played 3 straight games against division rivals, then traveled to Texas to play Dallas, out to the east coast to play the Bills in Buffalo, back to the west coast to play the Jets at home, and now they travel back to the east coast to play Miami. Miami, meanwhile, hasn't traveled farther west than St. Louis in their last 3 games. Miami needs this game more, they are at home, they are starting to believe in their playoff chances, and their passing attack matches up well against San Francisco's defense. Reality sets in for the 49ers this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami
San Diego (-5.5) @ Kansas City (+5.5)
Honestly, this game is one you should stay far away from. Both of these teams reek of inconsistency. San Diego looks like they are turning a corner one week, and the next they are losing must win games. Kansas City looks hopeless, and then gives opponents fits, albeit in losing efforts. So with no idea which version of which team is going to show up, how the hell do you cap this game? You just have to go with your gut I suppose; and my gut tells me San Diego wins this game by a TD or more. Lousy analysis? Trust me, I know. But this game is impossible.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego
Green Bay (-2.0) @ Jacksonville (+2.0)
Fred Taylor out. Matt Jones out. Jerry Porter (even if he IS an underachiever this year) out. Jacksonville has lost 4 straight games by double digits. They've lost 6 of their last 7 games, with the only win coming over Detroit. They have had problems on and off the field all season long. Tons of key injuries on the lines and to some big name position players. They appear to have given up on the season. So how on earth are they only getting 2 points here? Yes, Green Bay has also fallen off in a major way, losing 5 of their last 6. But those 5 losses were @Tennessee, @Minnesota, @New Orleans, vs. Carolina, and vs. Houston; all good opponents, and only one of those losses was by more than 4 points. Even with all their struggles, Green Bay seems way too easy here, and 85% of bettors are betting Green Bay minus the points and 81% are betting them money line. I just NEED to go the other way.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Jacksonville
Washington (-7.0) @ Cincinnati (+7.0)
Cincinnati's offense is tragically bad, and there isn't any way to pick this team without holding your nose. But Washington is one of those teams that I don't really feel comfortable giving up 7 points to ANY team with, especially on the road. Their offensive production over the last 8 games; 10, 7, 20 (Seattle), 10, 6, 25 (Detroit), 14, 17. And while there is no excuse for Cinci being outscored 69 - 6 in their last 2 games, those games were against two AFC powerhouses in Indianapolis and Baltimore. @Pittsburgh and the tie with Philly came before that. This team has faced a brutal schedule, and Washington is actually one of the easier games they've had in a while. If they can find their way into the endzone a few times at home, even by accident, I think they get the cover here; and I see this happening.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington
Tennessee (-3.0) @ Houston (+3.0)
You may not believe it, but I'm going with the Texans here. There is just a lot to like; as the Jets proved, the best way to beat the Titans is with a strong passing game, and the Texans certainly have that. The Titans also haven't really been tested on the road this year. There is also the huge chance that they get caught looking ahead; with Pittsburgh and Indianapolis to close out the season, the Titans will have to decide who to rest, who to start, etc. and have a lot to think about in the coming weeks. This game sets up perfectly as a trap game, with Houston playing for a lot of pride lately trying to finish the season on a high note. I think they pull off the upset.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Houston
Detroit (+17.0) @ Indianapolis (-17.0)
With Baltimore and the entire AFC East breathing down the Colts neck in the AFC wild card race, this team is extremely motivated to keep winning and keep pounding opponents to stay in their groove. They can't afford to take anyone lightly, even Detroit. An emotionally draining loss last week and now the daunting task of going into Indianapolis, I don't see Detroit having anything in the tank here. I hate to give another professional team a college football amount of points, but I'm NOT taking Detroit just for the sake of taking them this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
Minnesota (+3.0) @ Arizona (-3.0)
While the stats show a game that Arizona passes at will and overpowers a mediocre secondary at home, I'm going to ignore the stats on this one. Sometimes it just comes down to who wants it more. Minnesota has overcome early season struggles and season long quarterback issues to take the lead in their division, which they are hanging on to by only a half game after Chicago's win Thursday night, and they are fighting for their playoff lives. Arizona, meanwhile, has already wrapped up their division. And while Arizona may have the best WR core in the league, who have they really beaten this year? San Fran twice, St. Louis twice, Seattle, and Buffalo. Only two teams over .500; Miami (back in week 2 before they established the wildcat) and a fluky win over Dallas. Minnesota is going to be a tough game, and with a we're-already-in-the-playoffs voice in the back of their heads, it might just be a loss.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Minnesota
New England (-7.0) @ Oakland (+7.0)
Another impossible one to predict. I always take flack for picking the Raiders "because they are my favorite team". Trust me on this; BECAUSE they are my favorite team, I happen to know just how bad they are as well if not better than anyone. I don't select them because they are my team, I select them because I think they are the right pick. And, sadly, I believe that is true again this week. New England tends to keep games closer than they should be; they only have 3 double digit wins this year, 1 on the road. The defense is in really bad shape, and while the Raiders offense is among the league's worst, if Fargas and McFadden can establish the rushing attack, they might be able to put up some points. Perhaps most pertinently, Matt Cassell's father just passed away, and he spent a bit of time away from the team this week to be with his family. He will start Sunday, but it is hard to believe he will be 100% focused on football in a hostile environment after such an emotional week. The Raiders defense can be stingy at times, and if Cassells makes bad decisions out there, he could pay for them. I think this will be a low scoring game, and Oakland will cover the 7 points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England
Denver (+7.5) @ Carolina (-7.5)
I do believe that Carolina is the better team, but I also believe this number is a bit swelled due to Carolina's dominant performance over Tampa Bay last week. Rushing for just about 300 yards on a tough Tampa Bay defense, what will they do against Denver's 26th ranked rushing defense? I can understand that logic, but I'd also point out that Denver is playing some good football, and can pass on just about anyone when they are clicking. I do think that Carolina will win, and a cover wouldn't even surprise me, but I believe the value in this game is on Denver getting over a TD.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina
Pittsburgh (+2.0) @ Baltimore (-2.0)
This should be an awesome game. Two extremely stingy defenses. I do have to go with Baltimore here though; they have shown a lot more aptitude on offense, and they do have home field advantage in this one. These are arguably the two teams to beat in the AFC this year, and this is definitely an exciting playoff preview.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore
New York Giants (+3.0) @ Dallas (-3.0)
Okay, I know Jacobs isn't starting. But after last week's dismal performance on offense, I have to believe the Giants will bounce back with a good effort this week. And with Marion Barber's toe injury and no Felix Jones to back him up, the Cowboys will be a one dimensional team, and I believe the Giants can exploit that and pick up the win here. They don't want to start a skid to end their season. Plus with all the soap opera drama in Dallas, its hard to pick them to win big games like this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New York Giants
MONDAY
Cleveland (+14.0) @ Philadelphia (-14.0)
2 touchdowns on Monday night is an embarrassing spread. But can you really take the Browns here? Philadelphia is looking sharp again, dominating Arizona and then surprisingly shutting down the Giants in New York. Now they face a team that is lost on offense with Ken Dorsey as their starter. Even if the Browns do play for pride out there, is it going to matter? I don't see them putting up more than 10 points, and I do see Philly putting up 28+.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
Good luck this week!
