Let's Talk March Madness Strategies ...

[EaglesPhan36]

Conference Tourneys, The Big Dance & Other Stupid Postseason Tourneys ...

The last few years, I have concentrated on a handful of conferences that I think I know best and played only those during conference tourney time + the 2nd half totals I like to play.

During the NCAAs, I found last year that sticking the majority of my plays in ONE region where I felt either I knew the teams or that the lines/match-ups would present the best betting opportunities really helped streamline my focus. Takes a lot of patience/discipline to not want to play other regions - but it helped keep the # of plays down. Once the Sweet 16 rolled around, allowed myself the room to play a few more games I liked in other regions - but essentially for the 1st weekend I played mainly one region and a few spot plays like ML dogs, etc that stuck with my bracket.

What is your strategy?

[BigDeem5]

Watch the games all year, know who is over valued/under valued...

For example,

I believe Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Ohio State, Kansas, and others are over valued (arizona too)

Under valued: UCLA, K St, Wisconsin, Marquette

[tto827]

I roll with Deemers strategy, although my teams are very different.

[EaglesPhan36]

As a 'Cuse fan, not sure they are over valued all the time but definitely over f-ing rated.

[k13]

Same as every year, books give you the winner just have to decode it. But that's for straight plays which are boring.

Rest will be futures and crazy parlays since there's so many games and separated.

[BIGDAY]

I play every single game in the tourney. It's a rush.

[Louisvillekid1]

Don't overvalue teams cuz they are playing close to home, It's nothing even close to an actual home game.

[Brock Landers]

be VERY careful with conference tournaments...

some teams simply DO NOT give a shit. The teams that are in and aren't going anywhere in the big tournament would like the extra rest anyway. I can't tell you how many times i've seen teams just simply not show up, for example, in 2011 Big Ten Tournament, see what Purdue did to Michigan st, then what Michigan st did vs Penn st. Case in point

Big Dance is a different story, but tread lightly on the BIG conference tournaments...

[The Giant]

I plan on following Brock Landers during the tournament.

I would advise the rest of you to do the same.

[InTheDrink]

top seeded teams who can run and score will generally cover easily in the first round

you will find at least a couple 10, 11 or 12's who jump off the page as being a better team than the first round opponent and are getting points

[InTheDrink]

ive seen some of thegiants picks in previous years and i dont know how he comes up with them but theyre unbelievable

[k13]

You guys see anything here, might take a flyier on some long-shots, especially in the big south.

Coastal Carolina	<input id="editx" name="C_172" size="4" maxlength="5"> +260
Charleston Southern	<input id="editx" name="C_173" size="4" maxlength="5"> +270
Gardner-Webb	<input id="editx" name="C_174" size="4" maxlength="5"> +290
High Point	<input id="editx" name="C_175" size="4" maxlength="5"> +500
UNC Asheville	<input id="editx" name="C_176" size="4" maxlength="5"> +600
VMI	<input id="editx" name="C_177" size="4" maxlength="5"> +2000
Winthrop	<input id="editx" name="C_178" size="4" maxlength="5"> +4000
Campbell	<input id="editx" name="C_179" size="4" maxlength="5"> +5000
Liberty	<input id="editx" name="C_180" size="4" maxlength="5"> +5000
Radford	<input id="editx" name="C_181" size="4" maxlength="5"> +6000
Presbyterian College	<input id="editx" name="C_182" size="4" maxlength="5"> +20000
Longwood	<input id="editx" name="C_183" size="4" maxlength="5"> +100000

Valparaiso	<input id="editx" name="C_184" size="4" maxlength="5"> -160
Detroit	<input id="editx" name="C_185" size="4" maxlength="5"> +200
Wisconsin Green Bay	<input id="editx" name="C_186" size="4" maxlength="5"> +1500
Wright State	<input id="editx" name="C_187" size="4" maxlength="5"> +1800
Youngtown State	<input id="editx" name="C_188" size="4" maxlength="5"> +5000
Illinois Chicago	<input id="editx" name="C_189" size="4" maxlength="5"> +7500
Loyola Chicago	<input id="editx" name="C_190" size="4" maxlength="5"> +9000
Cleveland State	<input id="editx" name="C_191" size="4" maxlength="5"> +25000
Wisconsin Milwaukee	<input id="editx" name="C_192" size="4" maxlength="5"> +75000

[Louisvillekid1]

Wright st + 1800 has value , only thing that stands out

[steveq]

well you have to consider your loyal fan base that might have the ability to follow when it is say 100 miles away as opposed to 1000 miles just saying

[EASports]

I going to rollover my bets vs the top bet team on the, "Vegasinsider Top Bet screen".

[ChalkyDog]

Don't overvalue teams cuz they are playing close to home, It's nothing even close to an actual home game.

True, however the are usually exceptions.

For instance, Villanova got to damn near play at home a few years ago.
If there is a venue in north carolina, Duke will be in that region.
Arizona v. Duke 2 years ago at the honda center for instance, was an absolute home game for the cats.

[ChalkyDog]

Eh, WTF... my most successful betting angle the first weekend is:

Major conference teams with an efficiency calculation over 0.10 make it to the 2nd weekend at an awesome rate.

Now, I usually hate putting things like this out there, but these numbers aren't simply listed anywhere, so you have to physically calculate it yourself. Having certain presumptions about posters on PT, not too worried.

[TheMoneyShot]

Crapshoot

[k13]

Wright st + 1800 has value , only thing that stands out

Was looking at that too or wisc-gb.

Might take a shot at vmi or winthrop. lol

[milwaukee mike]

Was looking at that too or wisc-gb.

Might take a shot at vmi or winthrop. lol

looking at wright st and uw-gb, those are 2 pretty decent teams getting huge odds

[ApricotSinner32]

99.99999% of people with good strategies do not tell the masses them for free. It would cost them money.

[k13]

Fade all the Louisiana Tech's.

[texhooper]

be VERY careful with conference tournaments...

some teams simply DO NOT give a shit. The teams that are in and aren't going anywhere in the big tournament would like the extra rest anyway. I can't tell you how many times i've seen teams just simply not show up, for example, in 2011 Big Ten Tournament, see what Purdue did to Michigan st, then what Michigan st did vs Penn st. Case in point

Big Dance is a different story, but tread lightly on the BIG conference tournaments...

nobody takes brock seriously but this is good advice. hell last year kentucky was the clear favorite to win the whole thing and they didn't even win their league tournament. florida state won the acc tourney last year...clearly north carolina just wasn't concerned. they went to the elite eight and got bounced by eventual national runner up kansas. this is just two glaring examples from last year.

[Louisvillekid1]

Here's the First thing you do,

Find Louisville on you're bracket and write their name 6 more times until you reach the center of the bracket.

The rest is really where you can take some shots.

[milwaukee mike]

Here's the First thing you do,

Find Louisville on you're bracket and write their name 6 more times until you reach the center of the bracket.

The rest is really where you can take some shots.

objective advice once again from louisville kid

[DOM_Toretto]

Michigan & Michigan State are basically playing their first two games at home - both at the Palace of Auburn Hills ( less than an hour away from AA & EL ) and the palace is a very big & loud venue. Depending on matchups/spreads, both should have an easy time covering early.

Don't be fooled if a BIG TEN team fizzles out early in the Big Ten Tourney - the B1G Tourny is not as important to these squads at the NCAA tourney.

[sjm5122]

Fade PAC 12.

[Frisco]

Same as every year, books give you the winner just have to decode it. But that's for straight plays which are boring.

Rest will be futures and crazy parlays since there's so many games and separated.

Early round parlays are where its at. A lot of money to be made

[Frisco]

nobody takes brock seriously but this is good advice. hell last year kentucky was the clear favorite to win the whole thing and they didn't even win their league tournament. florida state won the acc tourney last year...clearly north carolina just wasn't concerned. they went to the elite eight and got bounced by eventual national runner up kansas. this is just two glaring examples from last year.

I love betting early round games in conf tourney though where you catch a few teams desperate for wins to go dancing. NC State last year was a gold mine

[sweep]

whatever dart sticks the deepest into the board, im on it

[k13]

A few more tourney odds.

Mercer	<input id="editx" name="C_0" size="4" maxlength="5"> -160
Florida Gulf Coast	<input id="editx" name="C_1" size="4" maxlength="5"> +300
USC Upstate	<input id="editx" name="C_2" size="4" maxlength="5"> +550
Stetson	<input id="editx" name="C_3" size="4" maxlength="5"> +1400
North Florida	<input id="editx" name="C_4" size="4" maxlength="5"> +2100
Jacksonville	<input id="editx" name="C_5" size="4" maxlength="5"> +5500
East Tennessee State	<input id="editx" name="C_6" size="4" maxlength="5"> +5500
Lipscomb	<input id="editx" name="C_7" size="4" maxlength="5"> +8000

Robert Morris	<input id="editx" name="C_8" size="4" maxlength="5"> -130
Wagner	<input id="editx" name="C_9" size="4" maxlength="5"> +285
LIU Brooklyn	<input id="editx" name="C_10" size="4" maxlength="5"> +650
Bryant	<input id="editx" name="C_11" size="4" maxlength="5"> +800
Quinnipiac	<input id="editx" name="C_12" size="4" maxlength="5"> +2300
Mount St. Mary's	<input id="editx" name="C_13" size="4" maxlength="5"> +3000
St. Francis Brooklyn	<input id="editx" name="C_14" size="4" maxlength="5"> +4500
Central Connecticut	<input id="editx" name="C_15" size="4" maxlength="5"> +7500

Belmont	<input id="editx" name="C_16" size="4" maxlength="5"> -300
Murray State	<input id="editx" name="C_17" size="4" maxlength="5"> +475
Eastern Kentucky	<input id="editx" name="C_18" size="4" maxlength="5"> +675
Tennessee State	<input id="editx" name="C_19" size="4" maxlength="5"> +1200
Morehead State	<input id="editx" name="C_20" size="4" maxlength="5"> +4000
Southeast Missouri	<input id="editx" name="C_21" size="4" maxlength="5"> +6000
Eastern Illinois	<input id="editx" name="C_22" size="4" maxlength="5"> +30000
Tennessee Martin	<input id="editx" name="C_23" size="4" maxlength="5"> +60000

Bucknell	<input id="editx" name="C_24" size="4" maxlength="5"> -245
Lehigh	<input id="editx" name="C_25" size="4" maxlength="5"> +230
Lafayette	<input id="editx" name="C_26" size="4" maxlength="5"> +1000
Army	<input id="editx" name="C_27" size="4" maxlength="5"> +2000
Holy Cross	<input id="editx" name="C_28" size="4" maxlength="5"> +8500
American	<input id="editx" name="C_29" size="4" maxlength="5"> +12500
Colgate	<input id="editx" name="C_30" size="4" maxlength="5"> +30000
Navy	<input id="editx" name="C_31" size="4" maxlength="5"> +100000

Gonzaga	<input id="editx" name="C_32" size="4" maxlength="5"> -375
Saint Mary's	<input id="editx" name="C_33" size="4" maxlength="5"> +280
BYU	<input id="editx" name="C_34" size="4" maxlength="5"> +1100
Santa Clara	<input id="editx" name="C_35" size="4" maxlength="5"> +3000
San Francisco	<input id="editx" name="C_36" size="4" maxlength="5"> +20000
San Diego	<input id="editx" name="C_37" size="4" maxlength="5"> +50000
Pepperdine	<input id="editx" name="C_38" size="4" maxlength="5"> +100000
Loyola Marymount	<input id="editx" name="C_39" size="4" maxlength="5"> +100000
Portland	<input id="editx" name="C_40" size="4" maxlength="5"> +150000

[k13]

Iona 5th in conference but favorite to win tourney...

Iona	<input id="editx" name="C_221" size="4" maxlength="5"> +230
Loyola - MD	<input id="editx" name="C_222" size="4" maxlength="5"> +450
Niagara	<input id="editx" name="C_223" size="4" maxlength="5"> +475
Canisius	<input id="editx" name="C_224" size="4" maxlength="5"> +600
Fairfield	<input id="editx" name="C_225" size="4" maxlength="5"> +650
Rider	<input id="editx" name="C_226" size="4" maxlength="5"> +800
Manhattan	<input id="editx" name="C_227" size="4" maxlength="5"> +950
Marist	<input id="editx" name="C_228" size="4" maxlength="5"> +4000
Saint Peter's	<input id="editx" name="C_229" size="4" maxlength="5"> +15000
Siena	<input id="editx" name="C_230" size="4" maxlength="5"> +20000

[milwaukee mike]

wow that maac is a complete tossup

too many teams with a chance and too much juice in the lines to take a stab at niagara, but it's tempting

[PhillyFlyers]

[k13]

I was thinking fairfield for the hell of it but +650 is way too low.

Fun to have a horse in the field though.

Line is really moving against my Jacksonville team today...