Vegas Dave's New Orleans @ Chicago Pick

[VegasDave]

New Orleans (+3.0) @ Chicago (-3.0)
These are two very difficult teams to figure out. By and large, they both seem to win the games they are supposed to win and lose the games they are supposed to lose. So when they meet against a seemingly well matched opponent with the same record, who is going to step up and prevail? If you believe cold weather will be a factor, the obvious choice here is Chicago. But cold weather isn't enough of a reason to pick the Bears here in my opinion. The Bears have proven to be a team that you can't run on (6th ranked rushing defense), but in turn a team that you can pass on (5th worst ranked passing defense). This fits perfectly with what the Saints do; abandon the run and pass all game long. New Orleans is finally getting healthy and has won 3 of their last 4 games, with the one loss coming to stingy-defensive Tampa Bay. The Bears haven't beaten a team with more than 4 wins in 7 weeks. I don't believe the Bears will slow down the Saints, and I don't think they will keep up with them, either. Cold weather or not.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New Orleans

Good luck!

[L2Gunz]

nice writeup vegasD

[Brock Landers]

and your opinion on the Total VD?

[pavyracer]

New Orleans is not the same team on the road when playing on grass in an open stadium in cold weather.

[ryanXL977]

everyone rips new orl on the road
barely lost at tb , barely lost at skins and den

won vs sd in england and in kc.
i dont think those road numbers are accurate

[VegasDave]

and your opinion on the Total VD?

Agree with you Brock. I don't LOVE the over as much as you do, but both teams getting over 20 seems very realistic to me.

[Chi_archie]

The Bears having and advantage in cold weather in general is myth...they've lost more big games then they've won at home in the cold....

but in this game, due to NO's horrible road performance, I think it helps them, i'm just not sure that it is enough

[pavyracer]

everyone rips new orl on the road
barely lost at tb , barely lost at skins and den

won vs sd in england and in kc.
i dont think those road numbers are accurate

England was road game for both teams. Doesn't count. And a loss is a loss. It doesn't matter by how many points. They have only beaten 2-11 Kansas City on the road and no NFC teams.

[ryanXL977]

a loss is a loss, agreed

i think the bears are utter garbage though

[Chi_archie]

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/mcneil/1325465,CST-SPT-mac11.article

[pavyracer]

Agree with you Brock. I don't LOVE the over as much as you do, but both teams getting over 20 seems very realistic to me.

So you are saying in your write up that the Saints will abandon then run and throw against Bears 5th worst defense but you don't like the over? And Saints pass defense is as bad as the Bears bad defense.

[VegasDave]

England was road game for both teams. Doesn't count. And a loss is a loss. It doesn't matter by how many points. They have only beaten 2-11 Kansas city on the road and no NFC teams.

Its tough to distinguish if they are a bad road team or just played tough teams on the road.

@Washington (early season they were much better than they are now)
@ Denver (out-shot them)
@ Carolina (tough defense)
@ Atlanta (good team)
@ Tampa Bay (tough defense)

All good teams, and most of those games New Orleans wasn't healthy in.

But who knows?

[Brock Landers]

New Orleans/Bears goes over or i'm a monkey's uncle

Most obvious play on the board

[VegasDave]

So you are saying in your write up that the Saints will abandon then run and throw against Bears 5th worst defense but you don't like the over? And Saints pass defense is as bad as the Bears bad defense.

Just because this is what I see happening doesn't mean it WILL happen. I could also see the cold becoming a factor and both teams settling for some field goals.

Yes, if the game goes the way I think it will, it will be over.

[robert715]

I'm putting $500 on Bears in an attempt to snap my 9 game losing streak. Lost $7,500 during that time. Anyway, here's why: Orton is horrible, just horrible. Bears Offense is horrible. Little nervous about cold and Bears defense at home. However. N.O has a lot of weapons and is getting 3 points.

[VegasDave]

I'm putting $500 on Bears in an attempt to snap my 9 game losing streak. Lost $7,500 during that time. Anyway, here's why: Orton is horrible, just horrible. Bears Offense is horrible. Little nervous about cold and Bears defense at home. However. N.O has a lot of weapons and is getting 3 points.

Do you mean you are putting $500 on the Saints?

[Rio DiNero]

I'm with you Dave, good points!

[Jsonic]

God I love breasts

[VegasDave]

God I love breasts

Yeah, its a nice little JLH sandwich with the pink bra in the middle, haha.

[diogee]

Best of luck Dave. On the same side of this one.

[poetwarrior41]

Hi Dave........Not trying to rattle your cage or anything, even though i do enjoy doing that from time to time. Just wanted to point out one of the misleading facts in your writeup. The Bears pass defense has only allowed an average of 208 yards per game the last 3 weeks, intercepting 6 passes and only allowing 2 TD receptions. Ive looked at this game for 2 days, and i still dont have a clue who to play? Im very discouraged with the road play of New Orleans, and i do think the cold weather and windy conditions will effect Brees passing game. With the line still at -3, i cant see many reasons to back the Saints tonight. Good luck with your bets!

[VegasDave]

Poet, just addressed this in another thread;

Bears have been tightening up a bit, only allowing 184 yards passing their last 3 games. Ill take 4-2 at home over 1-5 on the road any day, good luck everybody

Tightning up huh?

St. Louis (27th ranked, 178.7 PYPG) 193 against Chi
Minnesota (26th ranked, 180.4 PYPG) 200 against Chi
Jacksonville (16th ranked, 206.1 PYPG) 159 against Chi

If by tightening up you mean letting two of the league's bottom 7 passing teams put up more passing yards then their season average against you, and stopping an average passing attack that has mailed in the season, then sure, I guess they have.

----

If this convinces you that the Bears' 28th ranked passing defense has turned the corner and will stop the best passing attack in the game, I wish you the best.

[Chi_archie]

Poet, just addressed this in another thread;



Tightning up huh?

St. Louis (27th ranked, 178.7 PYPG) 193 against Chi
Minnesota (26th ranked, 180.4 PYPG) 200 against Chi
Jacksonville (16th ranked, 206.1 PYPG) 159 against Chi

If by tightening up you mean letting two of the league's bottom 7 passing teams put up more passing yards then their season average against you, and stopping an average passing attack that has mailed in the season, then sure, I guess they have.

----

If this convinces you that the Bears' 28th ranked passing defense has turned the corner and will stop the best passing attack in the game, I wish you the best.

word...

I wanna see if the bears can get any pressure on Brees, he's only been sacked 10 times or somthing...