Placing 100$ on each and every underdog blindly

[JoeSkolnik]

Well, Using this site and excel in under an hour I fould some very interesting things out about baseball. If someone had bet 100$ on games where the following teams were underdogs in 2008: Minnesota, Chicago White sox, tampa bay, Philadelphia, Tama Bay, LA DOD, Washington, Cinci. Houston, Pittsburgh, and Atlanta, they would have gone 365 - 475, Losing 47500(100 a game) Dollars on games lost, but winning 47351 in games won(because you are betting 100 to win more than 100 in some cases 200+), in addition to getting your 36500 that you bet back. So, you win about 43.26 dollars a game on these 10 teams.


What I did:
Used excel and imported data for ten teams into excel. I only did it for ten teams, because I personally must get data for each team, so I may do all 32 a little later. Once In excel, I deleted every variable except win/loss, and money line. I sorted the data so that only +100 and higher money lines were there (IE underdogs). I deleted all lines below +100 (all negative lines). I then sorted those onto two seperate sheets, one for wins and one for losses, and did my calculations.


I don't follow baseball at all, and I have no clue how good any of these teams are this year, but I still feel this is very significant. I may do a team by team analysis before the 2009 baseball season, but overall this seems like a very profitable excercise. IE, betting the money line against percieved good teams at the start of the season seems very profitable, because no one knows whos really good or not.

Again I dont know baseball at all, but there is much more of a sample size than any other sport, therefore I feel it is most profitable.

[peterpan19]

only 30 teams in baseball, where do you have the other 2 ?

[Willie Bee]

I just think I could find a way to invest $84,000 and come out better.

[smitch124]

Check out the reference to baseball in this thread:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/125840-why-every-gambler-loses-money.html

[JoeSkolnik]

smitch that thread is referring to betting underdogs against the spread

[Dougie Fresh]

For hockey and baseball it most likely refers to the moneyline. There are no spreads in hockey and baseball, it is always 1.5 for the runline or puckline.

[smitch124]

smitch that thread is referring to betting underdogs against the spread

Go to the Baseball part of the thread, down further...

[smitch124]

mlb since 95

mlb favs -1.5 million down
mlb dogs -1.2 million down

[Sinister Cat]

There is something wrong with your math.. there's no way the average winning dog is around +230 (which is what your numbers seem to imply, unless I'm misunderstanding).

[reno cool]

he added not loss to win for some reason.

[smitch124]

well whatever betting all dogs simply will not win, if they did the books would adjust.

Its just not that easy...

[dwaechte]

He's not suggesting betting all dogs. He's cherry picking certain teams that did well last season. I'll concede that if you can accurately predict which teams will overachieve or underachieve before it actually happens then you're absolutely on to something. Unfortunately, I don't think you'll be able to do this as easily as you think.

[smitch124]

Placing 100$ on each and every underdog blindly


Then I'm misunderstanding the title of the thread...

[jcz889]

I understood that he meant betting all dogs as well.... Which is kind of like throwing your money into the ocean if you ask me

[dolce05]

bet the over unders...last year i took select games taking the over....it also works well when the weather gets warmr and the ball travels better (you have to do it before they start to realize the weather is now a factor). All you need is 1 pitcher to hickup and most teams have these subpar guys coming in in the 3rd or 4th innning. Usually can guarantee at least 3 more runs for that game.

Taking the under was harder because all sides have to cooperate. Both pitchers have to pitch well. Both teams need to have an errorless game for the most part, and good hitters have to be off their game that day. If your selective with your games and patient, you can turn a nice coin every week. Slow and steady is the name of the game.

[Ryangene]

i did in just a contest one time, all unders and underdogs for baseball for the 1st half of the season and things went great. I won the contest. As for the whole 08 season i did most on the over/under and turned out ok too.

O/U Picks
602-562-37
51.72%
+15370 units

[curious]

I was in Tampa Bay for an extended period between seasons last year (the year that TBay totally sucked). Everywhere I went I heard Tampa Bay players talking (on the radio, in the newspapers, in clubs) about how psyched they were. Better management, new players, some new coaches, better pitching....

I played TBay every game where they were + odds and absolutely killed the books, on TBay anyway.

Sooooooooo, my point is, perhaps you could research what the players are saying between seasons and find a team that the public knows "sucks" which has had some kind of turn around during the off season and play them anytime they are + odds.

Perhaps.

I know a lot of people in TBay so it was easy for me to get my finger on the pulse on the TBay players. Not sure if this can be done from afar unless you know people in that city. Worth a shot I think.

[Ryangene]

I guess its about finding that team that when they seem to be underdogs they seem to win. I'd imagine that TB will be like that alot of times with NY and Boston in the same division.

[curious]

I guess its about finding that team that when they seem to be underdogs they seem to win. I'd imagine that TB will be like that alot of times with NY and Boston in the same division.

It is also about finding teams that are very different from the public perception of them. When team drastically improves it takes a while for the public perception to catch up to reality. When this happens there will be line bias in favor of the now improved team.

[Ryangene]

My Twins used to be this same way. I would anticipate teams like Royals, and Tb will be like that alot.

[ryanXL977]

if you do it on home underdogs, i bet you come out on top