Random thought about closing lines

[gamblingisfun]

Beating the closing line is essential to making consistent profit, I've learned from reading around threads here. I just was thinking: the closing line is made due to the public's bets. So the closing line is the collective markets opinion on what the line on the game should be. But if, like many people say and I believe, that nearly all sports bettors lose long term, why should the opinion of the probable losing bettors creating the closing lines be important to me? I mean, because of people losing money Vegas is kept in business. Unless smart money outweighs square money. I don't know. Just a random thought while I research the importance of beating closing lines and how I only beat them half the time lol.

[tto827]

Smart money isn't larger than public money. But it affects line movements much more then public money.

[HUY]

Beating the closing line is essential to making consistent profit, I've learned from reading around threads here. I just was thinking: the closing line is made due to the public's bets. So the closing line is the collective markets opinion on what the line on the game should be. But if, like many people say and I believe, that nearly all sports bettors lose long term, why should the opinion of the probable losing bettors creating the closing lines be important to me? I mean, because of people losing money Vegas is kept in business. Unless smart money outweighs square money. I don't know. Just a random thought while I research the importance of beating closing lines and how I only beat them half the time lol.

Juice is the reason that most bettors lose. If there wasn't any juice then the expected profit/loss of each bettor would be zero.

Also, beating the closing line does lead to profit, but it is doubtful whether lines move due to "smart money". In my opinion it's doubtful whether "smart money" exists at all.