Nicky betting Philosophy explained

[donjuan]

But the sharp gamblers know no one can predicit one game, it's one freakin game, anything can happen

Games can be predicted, but those predictions are represented by probability distributions rather than absolutes.

[Nicky Santoro]

Games can be predicted, but those predictions are represented by probability distributions rather than absolutes.

are you then saying that games can be predicted.. so basically, you're also saying that locks exist??

i don't care who is playing who.. even if Celtics are -12 and i got them at pick em, it's still not a lock.. they can easily get upset and lose..2 yrs ago, the lakers were -16.5 vs Clippers and Clippers won by about 12... Lakers were close to -2000 on the ml and got blown out..

no one can predict any game.. and when i hear the word LOCK, i just click on the x.. no game can be a lock..

[onthewhat]

maybe but that says more about confidence than anything else. I'm as close to a NCAAB sharp as anybody else here IMO. I'm always looking at tommorows lines before the games today start

Dude, hate to bust your balls here, but you are some college kid betting $10 a game. You hate to see this written by posters, but Nicky Santoro is a professional gambler. He beats the numbers and is a winner. You are a fukking write up gambler, those guys don't win in the long run, you have to have an edge in the numbers.

If you bet Louisville -2 vs ND because you think they have the matchup advantage...and line closes at a pick em....you made a horrible bet. Nicky meanwhile gets Louisville at PK because he knows line movements and Louisville wins by 1...he wins because he got the best number, not because he puts his bets in at 10am because he capped the games the day before.

This is a numbers game. You have to get the best number or you will be a loser. All sides are 50/50. Get a bad number and its 55/45 with the book having edge and you get drilled.

[Nicky Santoro]

[QUOTE=onthewhat;1281655]

If you bet Louisville -2 vs ND because you think they have the matchup advantage...and line closes at a pick em....you made a horrible bet. Nicky meanwhile gets Louisville at PK because he knows line movements and Louisville wins by 1QUOTE]


onner, actually lvl at pick em is not a good bet either.. getting the dog at +2 and then game closes at pick em is much better. getting lvl at pick em is a losing propisition..

[donjuan]

are you then saying that games can be predicted.. so basically, you're also saying that locks exist??

Read my post again. I said that games can be predicted in the form of a probability distribution. That is pretty much the opposite of a lock.

[TPowell]

**** Nicky, **** you. I dont bet $10 a game, considering this is my job outside of school and I make a living off this. I write up games to get my thoughts out because IT HELPS ME and others. Looks like I'm doing pretty good, I have records from last year too if you want those. I cap my games BEFORE everybody on here more than likely you fuk

[rm18]

[QUOTE=Nicky Santoro;1281677]

If you bet Louisville -2 vs ND because you think they have the matchup advantage...and line closes at a pick em....you made a horrible bet. Nicky meanwhile gets Louisville at PK because he knows line movements and Louisville wins by 1QUOTE]


onner, actually lvl at pick em is not a good bet either.. getting the dog at +2 and then game closes at pick em is much better. getting lvl at pick em is a losing propisition..

Most of the reason lines move is because games can be predicted, because smart guys know Notre Dame should win that game.

[onthewhat]

Nicky is right. Look at TPowell signature. He wants the attention of being a winner, he wants us to pat him on the back.

Congrats buddy, you are up 27 units I guess...I don't know I don't follow your picks. Congrats buddy

[TPowell]

I just think its funny how you guys love to slob on Nicky's knob so much

[donjuan]

I just think its funny how you guys love to slob on Nicky's knob so much

I sure don't but he is right that you will be a winner if you always get better than market close.

[onthewhat]

We aren't slobbing on anything. Guys are posting how he sucks or whatever, and hating on him. Guys are just jealous that he is a big time professional gambler and knows how to win.

I'd be jealous too if I was broke, thankfully I'm not so I'm not jealous of people with money.

[TPowell]

of course getting the best # is important but you better know what side to take. Onthewhat I'm not broke by the way, idc if Nicky wipes his ass with $100 to be honest

[onthewhat]

Well in my experiences, the guys jealous of winning gamblers, are people that don't have money. Just my experiences though.

[dle]

T,

i couldn't even name you one player in any college sport.. i can only name about 12 guys in the nfl.. and i can name about 24 guys in the nba.. i dont know any players.. i can't handicap..

when i look at a game, i only look at the lines.. in sports, the more you know, the less successful you are.. in sports gambling, to be successful, all you have to do is know numbers and %'s, and the feel of line movements...etc.. it has nothing to do with knowing sports.. in fact, knowing sports hurts you more in gambling than it does help you.

I call bullshit.

You have 5k post on a sports handicapping site and you don't know one player in college sports. Not even one? Not even Tim Tebow?

Sorry, but you may be a good person with numbers (I base this on your assumed reputation here) but there is no way you don't know players names as much as you post here.

[TPowell]

whatever, I post my plays here and EVERYBODY can see how I'm doing. Players Talk has turned into a joke anyway.

[donjuan]

of course getting the best # is important but you better know what side to take.

Why?

[TPowell]

because college hoops lines arent exactly sharp IMO. Are you asking why its important to know whats going on in a game your betting lol?

[Nicky Santoro]

I call bullshit.

You have 5k post on a sports handicapping site and you don't know one player in college sports. Not even one? Not even Tim Tebow?

Sorry, but you may be a good person with numbers (I base this on your assumed reputation here) but there is no way you don't know players names as much as you post here.

dle,

i swear on a stack of bibles... i swear to GOD.. i have never heard of this tim tebow.. or whatever his name is.. i realy really dont know any college players at all.. not one.. not one football or basketball college player, as GOD is my witness

tpowell, why you mad at me for? i never even said anything to you..

[rm18]

Why?

If you get an extra point on a side that is a 44% winner it is still a bad bet.

[TPowell]

I'm not mad at ya Nicky

[dle]

Like when Florida opened at 8 and closed at 10, you take BAMA and oops you lose.

I got 10.5 and you think Vegas knew that Florida would win by 1/2 of a point? Tin foil my friend.

Nicky Santoro says you're better off not knowing sports. Yesterday I adamantly posted that Oklahoma (-6) against Tulsa was an absolute steal. I knew how much better Oklahoma was and how bad Tulsa was. I also knew it was on a neutral court, Tulsa had NO ONE to guard Blake Griffin (note that name, Nicky) and 70% of the crowd would be OU fans because it was on a neutral court.

Oklahoma won by 25. They had the game covered less than 2 minutes into the game.

You shop for lines AND mismatches. Not just lines.

Nicky says that if you know more about sports then you lose, whereas I think it has to do with impulsive gambling and wanting action because you're a sports fan that makes you lose.

[dle]

i have never heard of this tim tebow

Come on man.

[tacomax]

i swear on a stack of bibles... i swear to GOD.. i have never heard of this tim tebow..

I believe you. Just like when you said you lived in East LA.

[Nicky Santoro]

dle,

i have friend here in montreal named Jason.. this kid here knows more sports than anyone in this globe. he can name you ever player in NCAAB, NCAAF, all 4 major sports, he can tell you when and with who they were drafted, what school from.. etc... he is a real machine..

he's also a gambler.. and he loses his shirt every month.. he is broke.. he knows every stat.. records on road, home, at night, on grass, vs conference,, and he can't win.. he's a loser in gambling.

there you go...

[rm18]

You know he is messing with us swearing on bibles about the most religious guy in sports

[onthewhat]

Guy lives in Canada. Do they talk about USA college players up there?

[dle]

dle,

i have friend here in montreal named Jason.. this kid here knows more sports than anyone in this globe. he can name you ever player in NCAAB, NCAAF, all 4 major sports, he can tell you when and with who they were drafted, what school from.. etc... he is a real machine..

he's also a gambler.. and he loses his shirt every month.. he is broke.. he knows every stat.. records on road, home, at night, on grass, vs conference,, and he can't win.. he's a loser in gambling.

there you go...

But he's lacking intellect in the math behind the lines, right?

I say you use the combination of math and sports knowledge. He's lacking one of the key ingredients, which you have.

[Nicky Santoro]

Come on man.

whether you want to believe it or not, it's the GOD'S honest truth.. and i am not proud to say this cause it makes me look dumb, but this is the truth.. and i do ok in college sports every year..

.

[dle]

Guy lives in Canada. Do they talk about USA college players up there?

He has over 5K post on here.

He knows who Tim Tebow is and if he doesn't he should at least google image search Tim Tebow Girlfriend.

[rm18]

But he's lacking the intellect of the math behind lines, right?

I say you use the combination of math and sports knowledge. He's lacking one of the key ingredients, which you have.

Even knowing the guys does not neccessarily mean you analyze them well. I remember guys hammered the Packers when Bush did not practice, I get excited every time Reggie Bush gets injury so I can bet on the Saints.

[Nicky Santoro]

You know he is messing with us swearing on bibles about the most religious guy in sports

you see, i swear, i didn't even know he was religious.. and onner is right, in montreal canada, you dont even hear about college sports. in the news, they NEVER even mention anything about college.. Just hockey and baseball.. not even NBA here in montreal.. it's hockey hockey hockey..

hardly anyone knows college sports here in montreal.. it is like hockey in North Carolina.. it's non existent

[rm18]

whether you want to believe it or not, it's the GOD'S honest truth.. and i am not proud to say this cause it makes me look dumb, but this is the truth.. and i do ok in college sports every year..

.

Injury info is big in college, Boston College was without their QB Saturday and nobody seemed to care and they lose by 18 on a pick line. COllege injuries are not really factored into the line fully because it is all reputation. One game Iowa;s Drew Tata was hurt like 3 years ago against Syracuse was +20 and without Tate Iowa was unlikely to even score 20.

[dle]

you see, i swear, i didn't even know he was religious.. and onner is right, in montreal canada, you dont even hear about college sports. in the news, they NEVER even mention anything about college.. Just hockey and baseball.. not even NBA here in montreal.. it's hockey hockey hockey..

hardly anyone knows college sports here in montreal.. it is like hockey in North Carolina.. it's non existent

I grew up watching hockey in North Carolina. Saw the Canes with the drapes down, baby.

[dle]

you see, i swear, i didn't even know he was religious.. and onner is right, in montreal canada, you dont even hear about college sports. in the news, they NEVER even mention anything about college.. Just hockey and baseball.. not even NBA here in montreal.. it's hockey hockey hockey..

hardly anyone knows college sports here in montreal.. it is like hockey in North Carolina.. it's non existent

I realize that is the case in Montreal, but you post on here and you have to see these names mentioned just through daily browsing. That's why I don't believe you.

I do think you know what you're doing, I just disagree slightly and think you pull our legs a lot.

[onthewhat]

I realize that is the case in Montreal, but you post on here and you have to see these names mentioned just through daily browsing. That's why I don't believe you.

I do think you know what you're doing, I just disagree slightly and think you pull our legs a lot.

He might see the name Tim Tebow...that doesn't mean he knows he is the Heisman winner and QB for Florida.

If I see someone post a random hockey name on here, I'm not going to know what team he plays for, what position, and what his stats are, and what he is good at, etc.