Food for Thought (NFL Plays)
I've been looking at past results of teams playing this week and I noticed a couple things I think are useful. The Giants beat Philly by 6 on the road. They are -6.5 at home which seems decent, but the Giants had 3 fumbles in that game at Philly. Another thing is I saw the stats of the NO/ATL game from earlier in the year. The yardages were basically identical, but I saw where Bress threw 3 picks and NO had a fumble as well. They are +3 at home against Atlanta tommorow. Anybody else do this later in the year? I know they won't play the same, but it does show why things happened why they did (fumbles, interceptions, etc)
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Tpow -
You're on to something. If you understand how turnovers affect scores in the NFL (and consequently spreads later in the year), this one angle will give you EV for perhaps 10 games a year. Combine it with other approaches, and you're on your way to terrorizing the books.Comment -
so who do you like, Giants and Atlanta ? or what ?
plz tell meComment -
justin7 you seem to be very intelligent and well educated on some of the more technical aspects of handicapping. Why do we never see picks or a record from you?Comment -
My time is better spent trading than handicapping. I do a little - ask TCowley how we did this year. I do a LOT of capping in smaller stuff - Arena Football is my specialty. Sadly, it might be gone this year.Originally posted by spongeratComment -
Do you mean NWO is -3 at home????Comment -
After watching that Giants/Philly game earlier in the year, my viewpoint was that Philly should have won that game AND COVERED -3. I think Philly covers and possibly wins outright. I don't think we have to worry about stupid non-calls like we had in their last matchup.Comment -
yeah. i was about to say. NO is -3/-3.5 right nowOriginally posted by fiveteamerComment -
wow justin, are you a broker or daytrader or something? Would explain alot. I have a friend who works in commodities options and futures and hes the same way when it comes to capping. So I bet you cap the smaller sports because theres more of an edge there right? Less efficient market = more opportunity for soft lines and arbitrage and the like. and so let me guess, posting your plays in these fragile markets might have an adverse effect?Comment -
I'm not a broker... And I don't day trade, unless you are talking about sports.Originally posted by spongerat
You're correct about market inefficiencies though.Comment -
Justin is the sharpest guy on SBR, why would he post his picks...it's a no win situation for him.Comment -
Saints cannot stop Atlanta. 3rd and 25. F'k off.Comment -
yeah, even if saints got 3 td lead, atl can score 3 tds in a hurryComment -
f'king 2 pt conversion.
WHY???????????????????????
Saints defence is disgusting.Comment -
saints covered
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Originally posted by Justin7
What????Comment
