Vegas Dave's NFL Picks Week 14 (Every Game w/ Write Up)
Good luck this week!
I just can't find any upsets this week, even though I know they will occur. Be careful this week.
THURSDAY
Oakland (+9.5) @ San Diego (-9.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Oakland (Loss)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego (Win)
SUNDAY
Cleveland (+14.0) @ Tennessee (-14.0)
One of the few games on the board this week that I feel the dog is getting too many points. With Ken Dorsey in at QB for the Browns, it isn't hard to believe that the Titans could win this one handily. The Browns' defense has been stout, however, allowing only 16 points to Houston and 3 to Indianapolis (the touchdown was a fumble returned for a TD). Cleveland hasn't lost by more than 10 in 9 straight games. If the defense continues to play well, they are capable of keeping this game close, and two TDs seems excessive to me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee
Jacksonville (+6.5) @ Chicago (-6.5)
Look closely at Chicago's season. At 6 - 6 they appear to be a decent team, but when you look at their wins, you see 2 wins over Detroit and 1 over St. Louis. Close wins over Philly and Minnesota, and you see that their only convincing win of the year came back in week 1 over Indianapolis. Jacksonville has been bad all year, and certainly falls under the category of teams that Chicago can beat. But I feel that 6.5 points is too many here, based on how the public has given up on Jacksonville and still overrates the Bears. My gut tells me Jacksonville is going to win this game outright. Someone has to get upset this week, don't they?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Jacksonville
Minnesota (-9.5) @ Detroit (+9.5)
Funny I mentioned I couldn't find any underdogs this week, and I start with three straight. But it'll be almost all favorites after this, trust me. Minnesota, like just about every other team in the league, is perfectly capable of beating Detroit by double digits, and its hard to pick otherwise. But lets just say you are a Detroit Lion, 4 games away from becoming an 0 - 16 NFL football team, a historic embarrassment. You will do everything in your power to make sure that doesn't happen. But you look at the schedule and see @Indianapolis, New Orleans, and @Green Bay coming up. No way in hell you are going into Indianapolis and beating them, and you think you have any chance of keeping up with Drew Brees? And the last game of the season @Lambeau? THIS IS IT, right here. You can beat Gus Frerotte. The home crowd behind you. This is Detroit's best chance to win a game this year, and I expect them to lay it all on the line in this game. Will they win? Probably not. But if they were ever going to keep a game close, this is the one to do it in.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota
Houston (+5.5) @ Green Bay (-5.5)
You rarely see a philosophy pick for a favorite, especially a big one. But on one side you have Houston coming off of a win over a division rival on Monday night football now playing a road game against an out of conference opponent; pretty clear cut letdown situation. On the flip side, you have a Green Bay team that just lost as a home favorite and is now playing another home game that they need to redeem themselves in. Letdown VS. Rebound, doesn't get a whole lot better.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Green Bay
Cincinnati (+13.5) @ Indianapolis (-13.5)
I'm going to keep this simple. Indianapolis has 5 straight wins, by win margins of 3, 4, 6, 3, and 4. I know some people get mad when I use the word "due", but I'm sorry, this team is DUE for an offensive blowout. I think they get the perfect team to get one against this week at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
Atlanta (+3.0) @ New Orleans (-3.0)
Why do I pick against Atlanta every week? I think they are a great team, Matt Ryan and Michael Turner are both excellent. Yet every single week I pick against them, and like clockwork they beat me every week. Well, once again, I'm going against them. New Orleans is lethal at home and Drew Brees is having an inhuman season. The Saints high octane offense was slowed down last week against Tampa Bay (one of the best defenses in the game), and while Atlanta's overall defense isn't too shabby, their 22nd ranked passing defense is a big mismatch against New Orleans. I like the Saints to outshoot the Falcons here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans
Philadelphia (+7.0) @ New York Giants (-7.0)
The Giants just aren't human. You can't cap them like a human team. 6 straight games against tough and/or division opponents, no problem. I really want to take the points here, especially with the extra rest Philly got since they played last Thursday, but I can't. Amazing this team lost to Cleveland; they could be chasing history right now.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants
New England (-4.5) @ Seattle (+4.5)
Perfect philosophy pick situation, right? Seattle only getting 4.5 points? Well, Seattle seems to be immune to philosophy picks. 16 - 5 overall, and Seattle happens to be 0 - 2. Not to mention all the times I've given them the benefit of the doubt that they weren't a philosophy pick that they've failed. Here's the truth; they are miserable on defense, and hopelessly out of sync on offense. Ready for a mind blowing stat? New England has only lost in back to back games ONCE since 2003. You think Seattle will be the team to make it happen again? Good luck.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England
New York Jets (-4.0) @ San Francisco (+4.0)
Speaking of philosophy picks, this one pains me quite a bit. The Jets fell to Denver last week as I predicted, but that was in large part to being out shot in the passing game. I don't really see San Francisco having the firepower to keep up. And shouldn't the Jets be extra focused after getting a wake-up call last week? -4.0 makes no sense, and it has resulted in EVERYONE betting on the Jets this week. Everyone. And the reasoning is the same across the board; "They lost last week, they won't let it happen again, they will crush a much weaker San Francisco team". I can't disagree, but bookmakers knew this is how people would think and could have easily made Jets -7.0 and still got great action. They like San Fran here. Build off the Buffalo win with added confidence while the Jets suffer a hangover from the loss? Jets can't travel west (losses to Oakland and San Diego already)? Whatever. At 75% winning percentage, I just hold my nose and dive in.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*San Francisco
Kansas City (+8.5) @ Denver (-8.5)
This one could go either way, but I don't see Denver letting up here. A win here deals a crippling blow to the Chargers' playoff chances. Denver would love to lock this division up before week 17 to make sure their game in San Diego is a meaningless one. In order to make that much more likely, they are going to need a win here. Tack on the added incentive of getting revenge on Kansas City for upsetting them earlier this season, and I believe Denver is the right side in this game, even giving up so many points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver
Miami @ Buffalo (Pick'em)
It pains me to take Buffalo here, as Miami is the better team without a doubt in my mind. But Buffalo losing to a big underdog last week at home now playing at home again is scary, Miami needing this game more and being on the road against a division rival is scary, the way Miami has kept games close against awful teams (4 point win over StL, 2 point win over Oak, 2 point win over Sea) is scary, and a warm weather team heading up to a cold climate is scary. So unless you are a fan of horror movies, I'd say Miami is a little too scary to pick this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo
Dallas (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh (-3.0)
I could get into a long winded breakdown here, but I'll keep this simple. Pittsburgh's defense is GOOD. I mean very, very good. Best rushing defense in the league, best passing defense in the league, which not surprisingly results in the best total defense in the league. Dallas has a high powered offense. When high powered offense meets smash mouth defense, at smash mouth defense's home no less, I'll take the defensive team every single time.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
St. Louis (+14.0) @ Arizona (-14.0)
This spread should say it all, really. Arizona has lost two straight (last one a blowout loss to a struggling Philadelphia team), and the two wins before that were by only 6 points @ Seattle and 5 points vs. San Francisco. They haven't been in blowout form in a month now. St. Louis had a great effort against Miami last week, losing only by 4. All of that information has been completely thrown out. And I can't disagree with throwing it all out either; Arizona has one of the most ridiculous WR cores in the league, good for the 2nd best passing game in the league, and St. Louis's 29th ranked total defense should get destroyed here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona
Washington (+5.0) @ Baltimore (-5.0)
Maybe I should be considering Washington here as a philosophy pick? No idea. Very early on this season I bought into this Baltimore team, and week in and week out they are one of my surest picks. The defense is as strong as ever, but they now have not only a decent offense, but a very good offense to go with it. The results have been amazing. In their last 7 games, Baltimore has lost to the Giants in New York, and beaten the other 6 teams they've played, all by double digits. They've given me no reason to stop believing in them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore
MONDAY
Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ Carolina (-3.0)
In a game that should come down to field position and bounces, its impossible to say who will get the upper hand. Two very evenly-matched defense oriented teams, which way do you go? If you must make a pick, I think you have to go with the home team here; Carolina is undefeated at home, and all three of Tampa Bay's losses have come on the road. Should be a great game to watch; Monday Night Football finally got one right.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina
THE RECORD
Last Week
With the spread: 8 - 8 - 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 8 - 8 - 0 (.500)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 3 - 0 - 0 (1.000)
Season
With the spread: 100 - 88 - 3 (.532)
Without the spread: 119 - 72 - 1 (.623)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 16 - 5 - 0 (.762)
THE PICKS
* - Indicates Upset Pick
^ - Indicates Philosophical Pick
Last Week
With the spread: 8 - 8 - 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 8 - 8 - 0 (.500)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 3 - 0 - 0 (1.000)
Season
With the spread: 100 - 88 - 3 (.532)
Without the spread: 119 - 72 - 1 (.623)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 16 - 5 - 0 (.762)
THE PICKS
* - Indicates Upset Pick
^ - Indicates Philosophical Pick
I just can't find any upsets this week, even though I know they will occur. Be careful this week.
THURSDAY
Oakland (+9.5) @ San Diego (-9.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Oakland (Loss)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego (Win)
SUNDAY
Cleveland (+14.0) @ Tennessee (-14.0)
One of the few games on the board this week that I feel the dog is getting too many points. With Ken Dorsey in at QB for the Browns, it isn't hard to believe that the Titans could win this one handily. The Browns' defense has been stout, however, allowing only 16 points to Houston and 3 to Indianapolis (the touchdown was a fumble returned for a TD). Cleveland hasn't lost by more than 10 in 9 straight games. If the defense continues to play well, they are capable of keeping this game close, and two TDs seems excessive to me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee
Jacksonville (+6.5) @ Chicago (-6.5)
Look closely at Chicago's season. At 6 - 6 they appear to be a decent team, but when you look at their wins, you see 2 wins over Detroit and 1 over St. Louis. Close wins over Philly and Minnesota, and you see that their only convincing win of the year came back in week 1 over Indianapolis. Jacksonville has been bad all year, and certainly falls under the category of teams that Chicago can beat. But I feel that 6.5 points is too many here, based on how the public has given up on Jacksonville and still overrates the Bears. My gut tells me Jacksonville is going to win this game outright. Someone has to get upset this week, don't they?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Jacksonville
Minnesota (-9.5) @ Detroit (+9.5)
Funny I mentioned I couldn't find any underdogs this week, and I start with three straight. But it'll be almost all favorites after this, trust me. Minnesota, like just about every other team in the league, is perfectly capable of beating Detroit by double digits, and its hard to pick otherwise. But lets just say you are a Detroit Lion, 4 games away from becoming an 0 - 16 NFL football team, a historic embarrassment. You will do everything in your power to make sure that doesn't happen. But you look at the schedule and see @Indianapolis, New Orleans, and @Green Bay coming up. No way in hell you are going into Indianapolis and beating them, and you think you have any chance of keeping up with Drew Brees? And the last game of the season @Lambeau? THIS IS IT, right here. You can beat Gus Frerotte. The home crowd behind you. This is Detroit's best chance to win a game this year, and I expect them to lay it all on the line in this game. Will they win? Probably not. But if they were ever going to keep a game close, this is the one to do it in.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota
Houston (+5.5) @ Green Bay (-5.5)
You rarely see a philosophy pick for a favorite, especially a big one. But on one side you have Houston coming off of a win over a division rival on Monday night football now playing a road game against an out of conference opponent; pretty clear cut letdown situation. On the flip side, you have a Green Bay team that just lost as a home favorite and is now playing another home game that they need to redeem themselves in. Letdown VS. Rebound, doesn't get a whole lot better.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Green Bay
Cincinnati (+13.5) @ Indianapolis (-13.5)
I'm going to keep this simple. Indianapolis has 5 straight wins, by win margins of 3, 4, 6, 3, and 4. I know some people get mad when I use the word "due", but I'm sorry, this team is DUE for an offensive blowout. I think they get the perfect team to get one against this week at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
Atlanta (+3.0) @ New Orleans (-3.0)
Why do I pick against Atlanta every week? I think they are a great team, Matt Ryan and Michael Turner are both excellent. Yet every single week I pick against them, and like clockwork they beat me every week. Well, once again, I'm going against them. New Orleans is lethal at home and Drew Brees is having an inhuman season. The Saints high octane offense was slowed down last week against Tampa Bay (one of the best defenses in the game), and while Atlanta's overall defense isn't too shabby, their 22nd ranked passing defense is a big mismatch against New Orleans. I like the Saints to outshoot the Falcons here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans
Philadelphia (+7.0) @ New York Giants (-7.0)
The Giants just aren't human. You can't cap them like a human team. 6 straight games against tough and/or division opponents, no problem. I really want to take the points here, especially with the extra rest Philly got since they played last Thursday, but I can't. Amazing this team lost to Cleveland; they could be chasing history right now.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants
New England (-4.5) @ Seattle (+4.5)
Perfect philosophy pick situation, right? Seattle only getting 4.5 points? Well, Seattle seems to be immune to philosophy picks. 16 - 5 overall, and Seattle happens to be 0 - 2. Not to mention all the times I've given them the benefit of the doubt that they weren't a philosophy pick that they've failed. Here's the truth; they are miserable on defense, and hopelessly out of sync on offense. Ready for a mind blowing stat? New England has only lost in back to back games ONCE since 2003. You think Seattle will be the team to make it happen again? Good luck.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England
New York Jets (-4.0) @ San Francisco (+4.0)
Speaking of philosophy picks, this one pains me quite a bit. The Jets fell to Denver last week as I predicted, but that was in large part to being out shot in the passing game. I don't really see San Francisco having the firepower to keep up. And shouldn't the Jets be extra focused after getting a wake-up call last week? -4.0 makes no sense, and it has resulted in EVERYONE betting on the Jets this week. Everyone. And the reasoning is the same across the board; "They lost last week, they won't let it happen again, they will crush a much weaker San Francisco team". I can't disagree, but bookmakers knew this is how people would think and could have easily made Jets -7.0 and still got great action. They like San Fran here. Build off the Buffalo win with added confidence while the Jets suffer a hangover from the loss? Jets can't travel west (losses to Oakland and San Diego already)? Whatever. At 75% winning percentage, I just hold my nose and dive in.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*San Francisco
Kansas City (+8.5) @ Denver (-8.5)
This one could go either way, but I don't see Denver letting up here. A win here deals a crippling blow to the Chargers' playoff chances. Denver would love to lock this division up before week 17 to make sure their game in San Diego is a meaningless one. In order to make that much more likely, they are going to need a win here. Tack on the added incentive of getting revenge on Kansas City for upsetting them earlier this season, and I believe Denver is the right side in this game, even giving up so many points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver
Miami @ Buffalo (Pick'em)
It pains me to take Buffalo here, as Miami is the better team without a doubt in my mind. But Buffalo losing to a big underdog last week at home now playing at home again is scary, Miami needing this game more and being on the road against a division rival is scary, the way Miami has kept games close against awful teams (4 point win over StL, 2 point win over Oak, 2 point win over Sea) is scary, and a warm weather team heading up to a cold climate is scary. So unless you are a fan of horror movies, I'd say Miami is a little too scary to pick this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo
Dallas (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh (-3.0)
I could get into a long winded breakdown here, but I'll keep this simple. Pittsburgh's defense is GOOD. I mean very, very good. Best rushing defense in the league, best passing defense in the league, which not surprisingly results in the best total defense in the league. Dallas has a high powered offense. When high powered offense meets smash mouth defense, at smash mouth defense's home no less, I'll take the defensive team every single time.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
St. Louis (+14.0) @ Arizona (-14.0)
This spread should say it all, really. Arizona has lost two straight (last one a blowout loss to a struggling Philadelphia team), and the two wins before that were by only 6 points @ Seattle and 5 points vs. San Francisco. They haven't been in blowout form in a month now. St. Louis had a great effort against Miami last week, losing only by 4. All of that information has been completely thrown out. And I can't disagree with throwing it all out either; Arizona has one of the most ridiculous WR cores in the league, good for the 2nd best passing game in the league, and St. Louis's 29th ranked total defense should get destroyed here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona
Washington (+5.0) @ Baltimore (-5.0)
Maybe I should be considering Washington here as a philosophy pick? No idea. Very early on this season I bought into this Baltimore team, and week in and week out they are one of my surest picks. The defense is as strong as ever, but they now have not only a decent offense, but a very good offense to go with it. The results have been amazing. In their last 7 games, Baltimore has lost to the Giants in New York, and beaten the other 6 teams they've played, all by double digits. They've given me no reason to stop believing in them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore
MONDAY
Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ Carolina (-3.0)
In a game that should come down to field position and bounces, its impossible to say who will get the upper hand. Two very evenly-matched defense oriented teams, which way do you go? If you must make a pick, I think you have to go with the home team here; Carolina is undefeated at home, and all three of Tampa Bay's losses have come on the road. Should be a great game to watch; Monday Night Football finally got one right.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina
BTW, nice avatar 
Mike
