(1) Michigan @ (3) Indiana Discussion Thread

Louisvillekid1 · 02-02-13, 02:00 PM

Here is my in depth analysis...

I know you're going to be on Indiana because it 'looks like mich is the obv play'

but, there is no way in hell that Michigan +5 is not worth a unit against anybody in the country right now.

GL

BIGDAY · 02-02-13, 02:02 PM

Michigan guard play should keep it inside the number.

Im taking the Pts.

onacloud · 02-02-13, 02:07 PM

Michigan +5.5 is a gift

Romanov · 02-02-13, 02:10 PM

over

Bostongambler · 02-02-13, 02:11 PM

Looking forward to it.

t-wizzle · 02-02-13, 02:22 PM

Originally posted by Louisvillekid1

Here is my in depth analysis...

I know you're going to be on Indiana because it 'looks like mich is the obv play'

but, there is no way in hell that Michigan +5 is not worth a unit against anybody in the country right now.

GL

Are books handing out free money with Michigan +200?

Louisvillekid1 · 02-02-13, 02:26 PM

Originally posted by t-wizzle

Are books handing out free money with Michigan +200?

what is going to be 60/40 Mich?

Maybe it is a sucker bet, but Im happy for take the 5 for a unit...

ttwarrior1 · 02-02-13, 02:35 PM

Indiana ML

who cares who wins now, march matters

Big Bear · 02-02-13, 02:40 PM

Originally posted by ttwarrior1

Indiana ML

who cares who wins now, march matters

you should cash that.

Big Bear · 02-02-13, 02:41 PM

bought down to -3 my self

ChiLLx · 02-02-13, 02:42 PM

Going to the game boys. Pumped for this one. Btown is going to be rowdy tonight.

ChalkyDog · 02-02-13, 02:43 PM

Going to be a great game. I am more excited about it than I am the Super Bowl.

Thinking it is going to be the best game of the month. Haven't capped it at all, so thanks for the insight T-wizz.

broadway6 · 02-02-13, 02:48 PM

#1 team in the nation catching 5.5 sounds like a good game to pass on.

RITZ · 02-02-13, 03:00 PM

02/02/13	Make Pick	675	Michigan	145	5.5	200	o 143.5 (-110)	10093	78%		71%	71%
9:00PM	676	Indiana	4½	-5.5	-240	u 143.5 (-110)	22%

78% of the bets on UM/ Why is the number going higher???!

Joe Sharp · 02-02-13, 03:09 PM

I was thinking 2.5 pts... 5.5 seems too high. But with 60% on Big Blue the line has grown

You mad bro · 02-02-13, 03:19 PM

Originally posted by Joe Sharp

I was thinking 2.5 pts... 5.5 seems too high. But with 60% on Big Blue the line has grown

over 70 % bro

Magnificent · 02-02-13, 03:53 PM

Originally posted by RITZ

02/02/13	Make Pick	675	Michigan	145	5.5	200	o 143.5 (-110)	10093	78%		71%	71%
9:00PM	676	Indiana	4½	-5.5	-240	u 143.5 (-110)	22%

78% of the bets on UM/ Why is the number going higher???!

My thoughts exactly...I'm a bigtime college BBall junkie, but I would consider myself still a newbie when it comes to analyzing public trends and line movements. I took +4 last night thinking that more people would bet on Michigan, thus dropping the line, giving my number more value. Well I was right about more people taking the points, but now the line has grown dramatically and I'm sitting here with no value whatsoever! Could I be right in assuming that books put out a number from time to time knowing that they are going to get heavier action on one side and then inflate it later to the true value to give themselves more of an advantage? Anyone with some proper insight to this? I would greatly appreciate it. Trying to learn more everyday!

PAULYPOKER · 02-02-13, 04:02 PM

Books definitely know something about who is playing and who is not that the public don't know yet..

What kind of impact will it be if this kid doesn't play?

[F] 02/01/2013 - Jordan Morgan "?" Saturday vs. Indiana U ( Ankle )

PaperTrail07 · 02-02-13, 04:49 PM

pauly ..lol he is out

PAULYPOKER · 02-02-13, 04:52 PM

So then he is the reason for the spread climbing up?

or is it because the books are betting on Indiana as I suspect?

Speedy88 · 02-02-13, 05:02 PM

Got Indi at -4.5 yesterday.

BuddyBear · 02-02-13, 05:04 PM

I like Indiana.

Frenchy616 · 02-02-13, 05:17 PM

I agree the points seem nice but remember what IU did to MSU when they came to Assembly hall last season with the 15 point win. I expect IU to play a game with the lead most the entire time and to win by 7+ points.. Here is why...

Michigan's Schedule- Only road win they have that is good is at Minnesota, but other than that they haven't playing very many difficult road games. They lost by 3 @OSU and if you remember that game they were down 15+ most the game.

Assembly Hall- That place is going to be ROCKIN!!! The atmosphere is going to be more intense than Robinson Jr3 and Stauksas, Mitch, and other's have ever seen before

Post game- Unless Hulls has a wide open 3, the Hoosiers are going to start this game attempting to go inside out with Cody Zeller and Christian Watford. As a relatively thin team in the post they are already down a player without Morgan playing.

Burke/Hardaway- IU is going to really D them up tonight. Everybody is forgetting that Yogi would probably be in the top 10 defenders in the Big 10 with Watford #1.

Final Point--- What will Michigan do when they shoot two 3s and realize they aren't falling! I 100% IU to come out with a quick 7-10 point lead and maintain it for the most the game.

Just some insight from someone really familiar with the Indiana and Michigan

Frenchy616 · 02-02-13, 05:30 PM

If you aren't finding value in the game -5 odds, I think you should defiantly consider IU -2.5 in the first half. Only game IU hasn't had more than a 2.5 lead at half was their funk against Wisconsin. You can point to IU for struggling against them, but in all honesty IU has ALWAYS struggled with Wisconsin.

Unlike Wisconsin, Michigan plays right into IU's desired tempo and that isn't necessarly good when your on the road. I like IU to be up 42-36 at half.. Right around a 6 point lead

Frenchy616 · 02-02-13, 05:34 PM

ALSO, great value with IU prop bets. Really like Christian Watford Over 12.5 points. Matched up against a freshman in Glenn Robinson. Who is very good, but you have to remember Watford show's up in the Big games. He struggles against really big guys like Payne and Nix but obviously won't have to deal with that tonight.

I am expecting 15+

onacloud · 02-02-13, 06:23 PM

Did you just say Wattford is the best defender in the B10?

And Victor is a better defender than Yogi....

BeerBottlez · 02-02-13, 06:40 PM

Their is a lot of value on Michigan getting 5 points imo. It's hard to win on the road but they had a horrible start at OSU down 21 and nearly won it.

I think Michigan on the ML has some value too with it being +200-210 on many books.

The game will probably get close either way. Indiana could jump out to a nice lead but they've been known to let teams come back in the second half (Minnesota) so in the end Michigan +5 seems like the better play.

From what I keep hearing is Jordan Morgan is a game time decision for the Wolverines. He likely won't play that much anyways if he's able to but even 10-15 minutes to rest up McGary and Horford could be big especially if Michigan tries to play all uptempo which I don't advise.

bigjah15 · 02-02-13, 06:41 PM

I'm on Indiana , think its Indiana or no play.

CarpeDime · 02-02-13, 06:45 PM

pass for me, but if you gave me a FP on the spread, yeah i'd take the points with michigan

michigan has been great ats this year when anything but a huge fave, and indy has been bad ats in conf play

but yes the line and moves and bet pcts on the game seem a bit odd

Hilljacademics · 02-02-13, 06:48 PM

goduke · 02-02-13, 06:57 PM

can someone give me the current moneylines that 5 dimes has for this game? I cant find the info on SBR odds for just that game it is blank

InTheDrink · 02-02-13, 06:58 PM

Too many to give Michigan

Take the points or don't play it. Indiana started out a little overrated and are still a little overrated.

onacloud · 02-02-13, 07:09 PM

Originally posted by InTheDrink

Too many to give Michigan

Take the points or don't play it. Indiana started out a little overrated and are still a little overrated.

IU is extremely over rated they didn't play any non-conference games on the road and the times they did play on a neutral court out of conference they lost to Butler and then barley won the other one against g-town in OT I think those were the only neutral out of conference games

Assembly Hall is no joke but home court can only help you so much should be a great game

I wish I didn't work tomorrow or I would've made the trip down there win or lose b-town is the place to be tonight gonna be nuts after the game

t-wizzle · 02-02-13, 07:12 PM

Originally posted by Speedy88

Got Indi at -4.5 yesterday.

Good bet. I got 5.5