Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo
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I'll bring the bath salts!Comment -
Kings are -107 -1/2 right now at 5Dimes.That's almost .2 units....GL NinoComment -
snappy, when i clinked glasses with J$ (who called for the reg bet)...it was cuz we BOTH won (him with his reg, and me with my do-it-yourself -1 PL)...Originally posted by snapperman2
bald_guy, thanks for chiming in...u obviously have the hang of the bet-sizing...but still have a bit of confusion about how it gets graded...with -1, you only WIN if your team wins by 2 or more...1 run victories get a "consolation PUSH"...anything worse than that INCLUDING a tie are big fat LOSSes...everything is for the WHOLE GAME, unlike the reg which grades at 60mins...so with the -1PL a reg tie gives you a chance for the consolation PUSH (if your team should win the game, which means win by 1, therefore a tie)...Comment -
'nother thing, bald guy...the whole-game "-1 PL" is best considered an alternate way of accomplishing the same thing as the "-0.5 reg"...a way of backing your team when the ML get too pricey...
notice today's card has DET -110...the ML's not too pricey...best to go the ML route (ie. stupid to give up the "1-goal victories" if you can have them for reasonable money)...
but WAS and LAK are more pricey...so ways of getting a better price (-0.5 reg OR -1PL) come into consideration...each having their advantages and disadvantages...with "reg" you win on the reg-1-goal victories that you'd just push with the -1...on the other hand, a reg-bet would lose a game tied after 60min, but your -1 bet still leaves you with a chance for a push)...in MLB the -1RL has always been the standard way of getting a better price...in hockey it's always been the reg-bet...(I just threw out the idea that there's no reason that the -1 can not be used in the NHL too)
on balance, in MLB or NHL...ML is the best way to go if not too price...if too pricey, either pass or consider a lower-cost alternative...that "sacrifices"--by losing or pushing--on some of the results that a ML-bet would clearly win...You gain a better price/you sacrifice ways of winning your bet.
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Nino is a "value-junkie"/not an "action junkie"...and i'd tail just as he calls 'em...i merely offered up an alternate to "-0.5 reg" that he calls for occasionally that some might appreciate...over the haul the two types of bet would be close in EV...with the -1 being less volatile (cuz of the reasonably-frequent pushes)...Comment -
Well. I still think a tie would be a push on the ML part of a home rolled ML-1. I think it depends on how your book grades a tie. Which don't happen very often.
Edit: seems ties can no longer happen. So the case above can't happen. When I seen total stats such as 16-5-1, I assumed the 1 was a tie. But guess they are reporting they was tied at end of regulation.Comment -
Have to disagree with you on the Kings El Nino.
Minny +160 .....................10 units
Play of the year ....This team needs to get back on track and I see them doing it tonight. They match up very well against the Kings. They keep Carter off the board and they win. Backstrom in net for Minny and BERNIER in net for the Kings.Comment -
damn dude you overthink things way too much. Just bet the gamesOriginally posted by fitguy67Comment -
I prefer Bernier actually since Quicks come back from injury..Bernier is one hell of a goalieComment -
0-1 so far tonight. But luckily that was our 1 unit play. So lets hope our 2 2 unit plays do better!!Originally posted by El Nino
Update:
1-2 tonight. Since i got Los Angeles +100 with the roll your own ML-1 method, the 2 unit plays cancelled each other out so am only down one unit. Not bad at all.
Thanks for the picks. I think our fortunes will change soon.Comment -
I'm in for the daisy chain too!Originally posted by SmokeComment -
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for those that don't mind thinking...this final report on how the "-0.5, reg" and "-1, whole game" bets compare price-wise...
Everything at 5dimes, so "apples with apples"...
right now...about an hour before puck-drop...
-0.5, reg = -107
"-1, whole game" = +100 (ML= -175/PL= +175)
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so it appears that the extra work involved in calculating and executing the -1PL (relative to the "off the shelf" regulation bet) is compensated somewhat by a little discount...I'd expect that such a small-yet-significant discount would tend to persist over the haul...i'd bet that those setting the "-0.5, reg" price are well-aware of the value of the -1PL and use it as a "benchmark" of sorts...for various historical-data-based reasons (esp. the ratio of regulation 1-goal victories by the fave to regulation ties...things that affect the relative value of the two options)...they like to consistently price their reg-bets a few points from it...(BTW, ditto the setting of the "+0.5,reg" relative to the +1PL "benchmark"...the differences will be the result of statistical calculation)
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it would be nice if an NHL data-weeny could evaluate the relative performance of each type of bet for all faves closing, say, with a ML -160 or higher...you'd need data on closing ML, PL, and reg bets as well as the game results
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I won't take up any more thread space with this...
Go Kings!!!Comment -
Sorry, pal. When I fade the Wild (as a homer) it is a good idea to tail. The Wild are 0-2 this year on the 2nd leg of back to back road games without a day of rest. Both losses are out west. Bernier is underrated as well.Originally posted by cockblockerHave to disagree with you on the Kings El Nino.
Minny +160 .....................10 units
Play of the year ....This team needs to get back on track and I see them doing it tonight. They match up very well against the Kings. They keep Carter off the board and they win. Backstrom in net for Minny and BERNIER in net for the Kings.Comment -
very much soOriginally posted by El NinoComment -
1-2 -1.33u
The City of Detroit can go fukk itself today
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In this morning's Detroit Free PressOriginally posted by El Nino1-2 -1.33u
The City of Detroit can go fukk itself today
In direct response to El Nino's proposal...the legislative council of the great city of Detroit is now drafting a resolution to officially declare itself a "hermaphrodite"...
this would clear all legal barriers to attempting to fully comply...and set the stage for other cities to also attempt what once was thought impossible...
altho many logistical issues remain to be ironed out, all four major sports teams--the Wings, Tigers, and especially the Lions--are likely to play a key role in the proposed "Big Bang" scenario...and a committee is being set up to develop ways to educate the community on how to pawn everything they own and go "all in" en masse, when the signal is given by the city fathers...
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Nino:
Regulation for the Caps nicked you in the ass... sorry my friendComment -
O well. Last night was last night. Any thing good on tap for tonight niño?Comment -
4/5
Anaheim Ducks Regulation (-125) 2u
YTD
85-64-2 +34.73uComment -
Yeah, I didn't feel that there was long term value in taking the -140. Both teams were undefeated in the shootout this year. Took the gamble on the + $.Originally posted by ch3ssComment -
Thanks. Lock and loaded, but with ML-1.Originally posted by El Nino
I foolishly did a play on my own tonight, Pens - NY Rangers OVER. LOL. Needless to say, should have did the under. O well, hopefully this play will be more productive. Thanks for the pick!!Comment -
Ducks aint looking to good right nowComment -
Not scurred. I've lost so many 2 and 3 goal leads. I'm due to get one my way.Originally posted by ch3ssComment -
El nino can you please do a video in assless chaps?
Thank youComment -
Smoke, can you change your avatar back to a hot chick. I feel like I'm going to be prison raped every time I see it.Originally posted by SmokeComment -
4 goals in the 1st period, nothing for the rest of the game...totally standard. May have to wait until the playoffs for more plays. This is getting ridiculous.Originally posted by ch3ssComment -
Reminds me of last week when I had Canucks/Oilers over 5 and the Oil Kings scored 4 in the first 8 minutes....clearly no more goals for 52 minutes!!!!Originally posted by El Nino
D2DComment -
A bit of a rough week, no doubt about that. I see there are 10 games tomorrow. Will try to keep watch in case you pick something. Hang in there.Originally posted by El NinoComment -
Originally posted by El NinoComment -
Originally posted by Bolzano
lol at this attempt to sell bs infoComment -
Wow!!! I would Pay ANY amount of money for such valuable information. Where do I send my cash? Do you accept 3rd party, out of state checks? LOL!! Ridiculous!!Originally posted by BolzanoComment -
thats the ideaOriginally posted by El Nino
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Nino... was at a damn baby shower, but as you can imagine i put 2U on Caps winning in regulation...
Well Ovie is penetrating lighting up the lamp.... watch out fellas.....Comment -
Yep, Capitals are heating up at the right time. Was busy last night and all day, didn't have a chance to cap any games. Looks like the books prob. took a beating though.Originally posted by ch3ssComment -
Caps -1.5 against Tampa.. This is to tough.... Big time points..Playing at home... Id take the $ line and not the PL... They are decent rivals, but its going to be loud tonight... why ? I am going to be at the game haha
GO CAPSComment
