OK Seaweeders, Here It Is. My 10 Unit Prop Bet on the Superbowl!! Wish Me Luck......

[Seaweed]

Will First Kick-Off Result in a Touchback?

YES -180


I have just watched the opening kick-off of the past 44 Superbowls, and read the transcripts from the Green Bay-K.C game in SuperBowl l. The number of times the opening kick-off resulted in touchbacks is staggering. Since they moved the kick-off forward to the 35 yard line, the number of touchbacks have significantly increased as 85.6 percent of kicks have gone in the endzone. The SuperBowl is a high pressure game, where the defense will not want to give the offense a chance at early momentum. According to the Vegas Props, the Ravens are favored to kick-off first to the 49ers. The 49ers do not possess any weapons to attempt a return agaisnt the Ravens special teams. This is not like when the Bears returned it against the Colts. Playing indoors, the ball will sail out of the endzone when Justin Tucker swings. Tucker has a perfect record indoors, ideal for kicking.Ladies and Gentlemen, this is the best bet for the Superbowl. A bet that will make us cash early, and put smiles on our faces. With this bet, you won't need to watch the rest of the game. Simply tune in, watch the touchback, and then switch the channel over to your next bet.

[tto827]

I agree it looks very good. As does under 4.5 kickoff returns -200ish (moving up every minute), and Baltimore to kick off first -140.

[Titanup28]

Sharp

[Seaweed]

Sharp

[daimoshokage]

FUKKING SQUARE..

[Giogeorge]

FUKKING SQUARE..

Seaweed is sharp as fck

[Seaweed]

Seaweed is sharp as fck

[daimoshokage]

Seaweed is sharp as fck

sharp don't lay that kind of juice you fukking idiot.. fukking squares do.. so shut your piehole about sharps and shit..

[Koldazzice]

My only concern is if they want a return to try and pin them deep. That being said I did play this for a unit for shits and giggles. Pure adrenaline alone should give both kickers an extra 5-10 yards distance.
Good luck

[Seaweed]

My only concern is if they want a return to try and pin them deep. That being said I did play this for a unit for shits and giggles. Pure adrenaline alone should give both kickers an extra 5-10 yards distance.
Good luck

You should not lay a heavy favorite for shits and giggles.

[InTheDrink]

weeder!

[SparJMU]

What does Super Bowl I have to do with anything?

[Seaweed]

weeder!

drinker

[Seaweed]

What does Super Bowl I have to do with anything?

I hope you're joking.

[saints1856]

Seaweed - very interesting info. However, you are assuming the Ravens will kick off first. What if SF kicks off first? Akers hasn't been very consistent kicking FGs lately. But, in the NFC Championship game (in a Dome), he DID kick 5 for 5 touchbacks. And as far as Justin Tucker, in the AFC Championship game, he was only 1 for 4 as far as touchbacks. The wind WAS blowing pretty badly in NE that night though....

I do like that this prop will take about 10 seconds to complete, and being that the weather wont play a part, I agree with you. Adrenaline will hopefully get that ball out of my Superdome end zone for a touchback. I have it at my site at -175, so I'll throw some on it fo sho. Good luck to us.

[playersonly69]

And I think that we will see a squib kick to start the game.

[RubberKettle]

Whats the max bet on this prop? $500?

5dimes limit $100

[saints1856]

RubberKettle, my limit is $300.

I wontt put that much on it though, in case some jackass tries to run it out 5 yards deep in the end zone

[ZINISTER]

Strong pick. BUT, with Jacoby Jones' success they may want him to try to spark the team with a 'borerline' deep endzone kick. ALSO, the lack of coverage in the Denver game by Baltimore's special teams may prompt Niners to test them early and bring out a 'borderline deep' kick. Just some things to ponder when deciding how many units to bet.

[EaglesPhan36]

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/kickoff-touchback-pct

[onacloud]

[BIGDAY]

GL Seaweeder!

[onacloud]

Seaweed why didn't you line shop for a 10 UNIT PLAY? What is 10 Units? 100$?

Sun 2/3		4267 First kickoff results in a touchback		<input id="editx" name="M1_569" size="4" maxlength="5"> -155
6:25PM		4268 First kickoff not a touchback		<input id="editx" name="M2_569" size="4" maxlength="5"> +125

[ebbearsfb1]

Onside kick to start the game

[tto827]

Seaweed - very interesting info. However, you are assuming the Ravens will kick off first. What if SF kicks off first? Akers hasn't been very consistent kicking FGs lately. But, in the NFC Championship game (in a Dome), he DID kick 5 for 5 touchbacks. And as far as Justin Tucker, in the AFC Championship game, he was only 1 for 4 as far as touchbacks. The wind WAS blowing pretty badly in NE that night though....

I do like that this prop will take about 10 seconds to complete, and being that the weather wont play a part, I agree with you. Adrenaline will hopefully get that ball out of my Superdome end zone for a touchback. I have it at my site at -175, so I'll throw some on it fo sho. Good luck to us.

Baltimore always defers to the second half. San Fran seems like a toss up as to whether they kick/receive if they win the toss this year. That being said, there's roughly a 75% chance Baltimore kicks. Now why the line on Baltimore to kick off is only -140 scares me a bit, but Akers inside didnt have a kick returned, and tucker clearly has enough leg where can bust it through the back of the end zone in a dome.
I think it would have to get pretty flukey for this prop to lose.

[VegasInsider]

-180

Winner or loser, it's a stupid bet. When will you people learn to stop laying juice?

[tto827]

-180

Winner or loser, it's a stupid bet. When will you people learn to stop laying juice?

If it hits 4 out of 5 times, how is it a stupid bet?

[Vegas39]

-180 on a prop no less

[cant call it]

Its stupid because line is at -155 now

[tto827]

Its stupid because line is at -155 now

Agreed he get a horrendous line lol

[YouMama]

Akers and tucker, kicking in a dome, to lemichael james and jacoby jones

good legs, not boomers, 2 speedsters on dome surface... if its not out of the back of the endzone, its coming out

[VegasInsider]

If it hits 4 out of 5 times, how is it a stupid bet?

1. Terrible line (-155 at other shops)

2. This play @ -180 has to hit 65% to break even

I think it's a decent play at -155, because the break even point is lowered below the statistical evidence that a touchback will occur in a dome between these two kickers.

[tto827]

1. Terrible line (-155 at other shops)

2. This play @ -180 has to hit 65% to break even

I think it's a decent play at -155, because the break even point is lowered below the statistical evidence that a touchback will occur in a dome between these two kickers.

A guy I consult with is a professional arber who also plays props. He said kickoffs under 4.5 is a smart play until its at -300. His numbers supported that. Akers was 5/5 for touchbacks last week in a dome, and somehow only 2/10 during the regular season, and tucker was 4/5 on touchbacks in a dome this year.

So 11/20... 55%, but Akers was 5/5 most recently in a playoff game, so we should probably weight that game more heavily. -180 was not a good play.

[onacloud]

Seaweed will come in and quote Brock "There is no juice when you win"

[Marigold HD]

May give this one some play.