What are the Key Numbers for NFL totals?

[ClimbSomeRocks]

I think I remember 44 as the most important number to beat, what numbers come next?

[TomG]

37.0

[easyliving]

I would think 48 considering I've seen it quite often as the set line in a lot of playoff games.

[YourAllAmerican]

Chart found here:

http://cleanuphitter.com/nfl/stats/nfl_common_scores.php

There is no number nearly as important to totals as the 3 and 7 are to spreads.

[statnerds]

anyone doubting the value of key numbers when it comes to totals, 41, 37, etc. check the line history for the Superbowl at Pinny. has been constant pressure on the Under and Pinny moved from 48 to 47.5 but will not drop it to 47. what does that tell you?

[chopperocker]

41, 37, 51, 38, 44 and 45.

[ClimbSomeRocks]

41	139	4.2%
37	130	3.93%
44	125	3.77%
51	115	3.47%
43	113	3.41%
33	108	3.26%
40	106	3.2%
47	101	3.05%
48	101	3.05%

From this table I think it is not worth it to buy to a half point up to 48 for the -119 juice. Is this correct?

[nikossf]

Not necessarily.. you could buy the half pt just for the fact a game cannot land on 47.5


Guess this is where I would consider amount wagered and bankroll. difference between a half a pt could be a loss or at 2nd best a push.

[YourAllAmerican]

From this table I think it is not worth it to buy to a half point up to 48 for the -119 juice. Is this correct?

The break-even point for buying a half-point for 10 cents is 5 percent. It'd be slightly less at a -110 book that sells half-points for 9 cents, but only a little less. A general rule of thumb is that it's not worth buying points on totals, but some bettors are willing to give up a little mathematical edge just so they don't bang their head against a wall when they inevitably lose a close one by a half-point.