Vegas Dave's College Football Picks Week 15 (Video!)

[VegasDave]

The last of the season;



Hope you all have enjoyed my videos this year. Will be doing other things over the off season that you will hopefully enjoy as well

[VegasDave]

Put this out too late last night, don't think anyone saw it!

[Cougar Bait]

Nice vid Dave, as always. Not sure about that ECU/Tulsa game, was thinking of going the other way there...and not too sure I agree with the "Arizona St. always wins this game and they are in Arizona's head" logic. I would think that would be just the right amount of motivation, especially for seniors playing at home to lay it on a rival if they can. That stadium can be unforgiving. I like your reasoning behind playing the under on the USC game, you made some good points. UCLA probably gets a field goal because someone blows a coverage in the 3rd quarter...and that's about it. I know you didn't make it a play but I'd love to hear your thoughts on the Boston College/Virginia Tech game. GL this week!

[VegasDave]

Fair enough, but even if Arizona is motivated (which they will be), I still don't think they deserve to be an 11 point favorite at all.

As for BC, VTech, I capped it as best I could but I've got NOTHING. Two tough teams for me to figure out! Good luck if you play it!

[Cougar Bait]

Just saw Washington is 1-10 ATS this year. Yikes!

[VegasDave]

Just saw Washington is 1-10 ATS this year. Yikes!

They are miserable. Once Jake Locker went down, the entire team collectively gave up.

I am counting on Cal being classy and uninterested here. Trying backups out for next year, etc. This is how I see the game going.

If they wanted to, they could drop 50+ on these guys.

But even 49 - 14 is a winner for me. It could be ugly, but I like the play this week

[gm2022]

Gl this week Dave!

[VegasDave]

Thanks GM! Lets both finish strong here!

[clowncar]

Best of luck thsi week Dave.

Enjoyed your video again and lean your way on most of those games , especially tulsa and ASU.

It was a fun season and I am better for having seen your videos each week. Have a nice bowl season and offseason and be ready to lace them up again next year.

[MickChunky]

Always enjoy the insight Dave

[VegasDave]

It was a fun season and I am better for having seen your videos each week. Have a nice bowl season and offseason and be ready to lace them up again next year.

Thanks, this means a lot to me

Yeah, this offseason I'm going to focus on 3 conferences and learn them inside and out. I'm too well rounded right now... works for 30 team leagues, but studying 120 teams is impossible to know teams in depth. I'll still make plays outside of my focus conferences, but plays inside my conferences will be the highlight/2 unit type plays.

We'll see how it goes. Last year (my first year capping college) I went 44 - 47 ATS (.484), so even an 0 - 5 week this week (62 - 65, .488) still makes this season an "improvement".

If I could grab 2 wins this week and finish the season over .500, I'll consider that a personal accomplishment and a step forward, even if haters around here are quick to point out its a losing-money season. You can't become an expert capper overnight

[DeluxeLiner]

I know this is your last vid Dave, but we need to discuss bowl games when they come for sure.

[I.R.B]

Goodluck Dave.

[CrapsMyWay]

Thanks Dave for all the info...

[VegasDave]

I know this is your last vid Dave, but we need to discuss bowl games when they come for sure.

I'll be capping them all and of course will be giving write-ups and what not as they come

[guru-t]

GL Dave,Like the selections.The USC-UCLA under looks like the perfect pick.The thing that scares me on that one is you're right.USC will probably get 31 to 38 points on offense here.Doesn't the fact that CRAFT could provide for a lot of short fields and possible INTs for TDs.That game against ASt scares me a little on the under and that wasn't the only game that he has done that so I just can't chalk it up to that being a rarity.Especially when you know that USC is going to get up by 17-21 pnts and Craft will be forced to throw the ball not to mention all the pressure he's going to have on him from that SC defense.As long as he doesn't turn the ball over,the under is an excellent play but doesn't Craft worry you a bit.If USC scrores 35 on offense,all it takes is 2 bad mistakes by Craft to get it on the 49.Thanks,just thought I would chime in Dave.

[VegasDave]

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Craft did indeed make so many mistakes that it cost me the under, but after last week's debacle I'm hoping UCLA comes out with some new looks that allow them to make a few less mistakes. It is a value bet; I always ask myself "If this game were played 100 times, how many times would the total be UNDER", and in my estimation it would be under 55+ times, making this a good pick at -110. Thats just how I see it; no pick comes without some risk!

I'd consider teasing USC and the Under to get USC -27/26 and UNDER 54/55, that seems like a high percentage play to me.

[GODFATHER]

Hi Dave,

Like your info, I'll be watching for future posts

[durito]

I'd consider teasing USC and the Under to get USC -27/26 and UNDER 54/55, that seems like a high percentage play to me.

I wouldn't recommend the teaser.

The UNDER, however, was an excellent play at 48.5. good luck

[VegasDave]

Hi Dave,

Like your info, I'll be watching for future posts

Thank You! Appreciate it.

I wouldn't recommend the teaser.

The UNDER, however, was an excellent play at 48.5. good luck

Thanks for the GL!

Would you not recommend the teaser due to the fact that it doesn't really cross any key numbers? I can understand that. Right now I'm seeing USC -33, O/U 47.5.

If you bet a USC/Under Parlay, you'd likely need one of these scores:

34 - 0, 35 - 0, 38 - 0, 38 - 3, 41 - 0, 41 - 3, 41 - 6, 42 - 0, 42 - 3, 45 - 0

7 point teasing it to USC -26, Under 54.5 tacks on:

27 - 0, 28 - 0, 31 - 0, 31 - 3, 34 - 3, 34 - 6, 35 - 3, 35 - 6, 38 - 6, 38 - 9, 38 - 10, 41 - 9, 41 - 10, 41 -13, 42 - 6, 42 - 9, 42 - 10, 45 - 6, 45 - 9, 49 - 0, and 49 - 3.

All very realistic scores I think. Maybe not the proper mathematical usage for a teaser, but not a terrible value in my opinion.

[durito]

Teasing an NCAAF total is almost never worth it. You have to look at what a teaser is. It's a parlay where you buy pts. 6pts aren't worth the approx -240 you would pay.
Same thing applies to the high spread.

Since you are looking at the favorite and the under, there isn't any correlation there either.

Basically you would be giving up some value by teasing it (assuming the under has value to start with)

[VegasDave]

Fair points, thanks for the insight

[VegasDave]

Wish I'd added UL Lafayette! But at least I can play my non-play leans in this team contest instead of having them go completely to waste

[jackpot269]

GL Dave, I have enjoyed your vids & insight this year and thanks for all the work that gos into it !!!!!!!!! Look forward to bowl season & rest of NFL again GL !!!!!!!!!!!

[VegasDave]

GL Dave, I have enjoyed your vids & insight this year and thanks for all the work that gos into it !!!!!!!!! Look forward to bowl season & rest of NFL again GL !!!!!!!!!!!

Thanks JP!

Go Raiders and go Rutgers tonight!

[bypp]

Enjoyed the video as always. With you on a couple of em. Still a bit unsure about the ECU game though. GL this week.

[VegasDave]

Enjoyed the video as always. With you on a couple of em. Still a bit unsure about the ECU game though. GL this week.

Understandable, any reason in particular?

Do you see ECU slowing down Tulsa or keeping up with them?

[jackpot269]

Thanks JP!

Go Raiders and go Rutgers tonight!

I took Rutgers-11.5 & took the over 41 on our Raiders ive lost enough on them this year !!!!!

[VegasDave]

Rutgers sure did their part tonight

[Sforz]

1-0

[bypp]

Understandable, any reason in particular?

Do you see ECU slowing down Tulsa or keeping up with them?

Well, I hadn't had too much time to look at the game. Initially Tulsa's bad road games really turned me off to layin 12 or 13 points with them. But the more I research, I'm either going to have to go Tulsa with you or make it a no play. There's no way I can go against them at home.

[VegasDave]

Well, I hadn't had too much time to look at the game. Initially Tulsa's bad road games really turned me off to layin 12 or 13 points with them. But the more I research, I'm either going to have to go Tulsa with you or make it a no play. There's no way I can go against them at home.

Well GL if you decide to play it!

[VegasDave]

50 minutes to go! GL to everyone today!