How do YOU determine when a line is way off/has value?

[soul786]

Do you watch every game you can, and have an idea?

Are you a stat-scanner, pouring over the number?

Does your gut tell you when a line seems off?

The thought came to me recently we may all cap differently, and with my schedule I CANNOT watch every game and stats is what I rely on. And maybe the opinion of a few guys around here. How do you guys decide when a bet is worth its units?

[tto827]

Anyone who finds true value does it based off stats, and uses formulas. There is no way someone who just watches games and looks over stats can ever tell you what his exact edge is on a bet.

[soul786]

Anyone who finds true value does it based off stats, and uses formulas. There is no way someone who just watches games and looks over stats can ever tell you what his exact edge is on a bet.

Do you figure momentum between games can be of influence?

Say a team gradually begins playing better and still loses their previous game, yet they're the underdog to a mediocre team with a 2-2 form. It's a bit basic but would someone who watches this team night in and night out have an edge aside from someone reviewing just the stats?

[tto827]

Do you figure momentum between games can be of influence?

Say a team gradually begins playing better and still loses their previous game, yet they're the underdog to a mediocre team with a 2-2 form. It's a bit basic but would someone who watches this team night in and night out have an edge aside from someone reviewing just the stats?

Its comparing two of the views on gambling, I have no idea which is "right". Personally, I enjoy watching and making judgements, it may cost me a little, but it still feels like gambling, and its more fun for me. I am pretty sure that 99% or more of people who do this for a living have formulas that scrape data and spit out the plays for them. It takes serious skill and testing to find a formula that will beat the books in the future, but once you have one, there is no need to watch games, you just bet what it tells you to.

Momentum obviously can play a part, but many people overrate momentum, wanting to win, and must win games, so unless you know something, this might put you at a disadvantage in the long run.

[You mad bro]

Ask sbr

[soul786]

Ask sbr

I take it you don't partake in intellectual discussions

[soul786]

Its comparing two of the views on gambling, I have no idea which is "right". Personally, I enjoy watching and making judgements, .......

I don't know many that last long doing this so cudos if it works for you, do you refrain from getting emotionally attached then also? All these 'team backers' tend to get burnt

[TheCentaur]

Time travel

[You mad bro]

I take it you don't partake in intellectual discussions

Lmao nahhhh

[soul786]

Time travel

So that's how you got me in that tourney last night. Turned a straight on me

[tto827]

I don't know many that last long doing this so cudos if it works for you, do you refrain from getting emotionally attached then also? All these 'team backers' tend to get burnt

I'll fade my team if I think public perception is too high on them, I'll ride them if I think its low. I'd say 80% of my plays come from having a team that I think is better than they are perceived, and then finding them in a good spot to place a wager. For example, fade ATL most of the regular season, bet them at home in the playoffs, because they are not as good of a team as people like to think they are during the season, and also are no where near as bad as people think they are during the postseason.

[innovation]

You need a model to make your own line. Thats how I feel Vegas out.

[soul786]

You need a model to make your own line. Thats how I feel Vegas out.

Is it even possible to out-model vegas?