Cal State Northridge vs Drexel (-2.5)
Drexel started at -2 everywhere basically and now went to -2.5. First glance I really wanted to pound Drexel. 1-4 CS Northridge against 1-1 Drexel should be a good bet, but the problem to me is Drexel beat Penn 66-64 at home in the first game and then just get drilled by Georgetown 53-81. Georgetown shot the ball terribly from behind the arc and still blew right past them. Their own win was against Penn and if you'll remember it was the early game on ESPN (around 10 AM?) during that 24 hour madness event that ended with the UNC/UK game. I actually made a very small bet on Drexel at -2 just for interest. I think this line will rise and I'm hoping it'll get to around 3.5 which is extremely unlikely but possible I guess. I'm thinking that Drexel played over their heads in the Penn game, because it was on ESPN in the full spotlight. I remember seeing an article talking about Drexel excusing all the students from class for coming to the game. Throw in that it was "an area game" and I dont put much stock into that game. Penn also recently lost 63-73 to Albany. I'm thinking home court advantage is getting blown way out of proportion here. CS Northridge has already played 4 road games against Rider, New Mexico, Cal State-Bakersfield, and Stanford. They lost all 4 of these games but all of these teams are better than Drexel in my mind. CS-Bakersfield actually beat Pepperdine on the road. Public is all over Drexel here and I'm really thinking I can get a great price right before tip. If this gets to +3.5 or better I'm going to make a nice sized bet on CS-Northridge
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yeah I capped this game CSU Northride +2 or so as a play, so looks great to meComment -
Up to +3 now at BM and DiamondComment -
yeah going to get on CSU right now, already put them in a 4 team parlay....Comment -
TPow
what else looks good to you? I have a bunch capped wondering what you think of them....Comment -
I might make a decent sized bet, but I still think it might get to 3.5 or 4Comment -
honestly I've been dicking around way too much tonight than normal and that was the first game I looked at. If you're on a while I'll be here too. Getting ready to look at Arkansas State/Indiana StateComment -
wow Arkansas State +4 against Indiana State? IND State is 0-4 and Ark. State is 4-1 with wins AT TN-Martin and AT Ball State in their last 2 games. Only road loss this year was a 52-65 loss AT Ole Miss. They're 4-0 ATS this year. They lost two players on 11/17 which is right after the Ole Miss game. Indiana State lost 61-67 to Murray State and 69-80 against North Texas. Both of those games were at home???? They played Depaul awful tough on the road in their last game, but something is wrong here. Line movement post up nextComment -
Ark State started mostly +4.5 everywhere. They are down to +3 on 2 books, still at +4 on a couple books, and +3.5 at another book. I'm jumping on the +4 and looking to middle later because this WILL go downComment -
yeah I have Ark State as play if underdogComment -
yeah I've got Ark. State +4 right now. This game might take a huge drop towards +1.5 or so. If it gets there, I might consider middlingComment -
I will be on a bit, but here are some possible plays that I did a bit analysis and going to do more in depth and watch the lines moving
Tenn Tech -4
Kansas -12
George Mason -2
St John -13
UConn -24
Northwestern -14
Idaho -3
San Fran +16
Albany -4
Cuse -14
Wisconsin +2
Char South -2
Kennesaw State -4
now these lines might be way off, that is jus what I myself capped before looking at any of the lines, so going to re-analyze as the lines come outComment -
Got ARK State +3Comment -
Arkansas State lost it's leading scorer from last year Yima Chia-Kur to being ineligible. Hard to put anything into this because of how good they've played this year. Alright BIG ALERT!
Indiana State's starting SG last year (Harry Marshall) averaged 10 PPG last year and was supposed to turn into the PG this year is OUT as of 11/30. This means he has played in their losses this year.Comment -
lines look near perfect so far. I see Drexel is up to -2.5 (-109) at Matchbook. Would love to see this line keep climbingComment -
still like ARk StateComment -
yeah I really like CSU stillComment -
I don't get how Arkansas State came out as a 4.5 point dog though. Worried about it being a trap maybe.Comment -
I know its easy to think that, but maybe I am just oblivious to it so far this year, seems alot of games just shake head like wtf are you kidding me and I have not played them, and sure enough it worked out in my favor if would have put some on it. Perfect example was today James Madison at Fordam -1 I was like that is easy given going to lay huge but was like well something is wrong. Nope, other then fact that JM won by 20Comment -
I think maybe those games that are from a PK-4 point spread always seem to overvalue the home team. Especially with teams like JM/Fordham and Drexel/CS NorthridgeComment -
yeah I agree. going with CSU not getting screwed again!
what other games you looked at from my list?Comment -
well so far just CSU and the Ark. State game. Looking at Idaho/Sacremento State next. Thought about Wisky/VT but I'm not in the mood for a game like that right now. Just want to get a good feel on the single digit gamesComment -
wow not so sure now, 2 Sac. State players are questionable and 2 are OUT. I'm not sure what to look at nowComment -
who is out? what game are you talking about?Comment -
I have Bowling Green as play if underdogComment -
Sacramento State/Idaho.
2 forwards are questionable, 1 guard is out, another forward is out
none are starters which complicates things worseComment -
then Idaho definitely looks good to meComment -
who are they playing tommorow?Comment -
yeah I might dig a little deeper into that game.Comment -
Idaho is playing Sac State, I have Idaho winningComment -
what sites are you looking on?Comment -
alright Sac. State is 0-4 and this will be their first home game so far. Losses at CS-Bakersfield, Washington State, UC Riverside, and Fresno State. Lost all 4 by double digits with the smallest being their last game against CS-Bakersfield 62-72. Idaho has really played some tough games so far. They've beaten North Dakota and a D-? team. Their last win was a 101-47 win over UC Irvine!!! The line on that game was Idaho +1.5?????? Lost at Eastern Washington 59-69 in their only winnable road game. Got beat 62-100 at Michigan State and 46-80 at Gonzaga. I really like how they played at Michigan State and Gonzaga because it shows that they won't be scared of playing on the road. Still a little worried about the fact that this is Sacramento State's home opener, but the play has to be on Idaho IMO. Line movement info up nextComment -
I'm everywhere, Wagerline and ESPN right now thoughComment -
Line started at 3 everywhere and quickly went to 3.5 on a couple books. Line then went back down to 3 on those couple books. The line actually dropped to 2.5 on Bookmaker. I'm gonna go ahead and lock in Idaho +3 elsewhereComment -
yeah got it +2.5 on BookmakerComment
