Vegas Dave's NFL Picks Week 13 (Every Game w/ Write Up)
THE RECORD
Last Week
With the spread: 10 - 5 - 1 (.667)
Without the spread: 9 - 7 - 0 (.563)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 - 0 - 0 (1.000)
Season
With the spread: 92 - 80 - 3 (.535)
Without the spread: 111 - 64 - 1 (.634)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 13 - 5 - 0 (.722)
THE PICKS
* - Indicates Upset Pick
^ - Indicates Philosophical Pick
Last Week
With the spread: 10 - 5 - 1 (.667)
Without the spread: 9 - 7 - 0 (.563)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 - 0 - 0 (1.000)
Season
With the spread: 92 - 80 - 3 (.535)
Without the spread: 111 - 64 - 1 (.634)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 13 - 5 - 0 (.722)
THE PICKS
* - Indicates Upset Pick
^ - Indicates Philosophical Pick
THURSDAY
Tennessee (-11.0) @ Detroit (+11.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee (Win)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee (Win)
Seattle (+12.0) @ Dallas (-12.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Seattle (Loss)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas (Win)
Arizona (+3.0) @ Philadelphia (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Philadelphia (Win)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Philadelphia (Win)
SUNDAY
Carolina (+3.0) @ Green Bay (-3.0)
There really isn't much more to this game than where it is being played. Green Bay is a totally different team at home; the defense plays better, the offense runs more seamlessly. And yes, you can say this about a lot of teams, but its pretty uncanny for the Packers; 3 - 2 at home with double digit wins over Indy and Chicago, 2 - 4 on the road with the two wins coming against lowly Detroit and Seattle. As for 8 - 3 Carolina, they are 6 - 0 at home and 2 - 3 on the road; and their 2 road wins came on a miracle play on the last play of the game against San Diego and an extremely ugly game against Oakland. Tack on Green Bay being furious about being embarrassed so badly on Monday night, and I think the choice is clear.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay
Indianapolis (-4.5) @ Cleveland (+4.5)
One of two very scary philosophy picks for me Sunday, but the damn things are hitting over 70% this year, how can I turn my back on them? Indianapolis is surging after a slow start en route to 4 straight wins, and now they face a Cleveland Browns team that has been a mess all year. They can't defend against the pass or get pressure on the QB, which makes them a horrible mismatch against Indianapolis. Brady Quinn's season ending injury only adds insult to, well, injury. All this adds up to about 90% of bettors being on Indianapolis here, and Indianapolis has also been thrown into just about every parlay and teaser and exotic bet out there this week. Bookmakers haven't budged on the line, it should be Cleveland +6.0 by now, but it hasn't moved. They like something about this game. Maybe the team rallies to prove they aren't a one man team? Maybe its the fact that Indy's 4 wins have come by margins of 3, 4, 6, and 3? Whatever it is, I'll take the side I'm "not supposed" to take.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Cleveland
Baltimore (-7.0) @ Cincinnati (+7.0)
When these teams meet up they generally play close games, so I really hate giving the home team 7 points here. But Baltimore is just too good on both sides of the ball for me to pick against them here. Cincinnati has played over their head in keeping losses close all year, but I can't figure out how they are going to not only stop Baltimore, but score as well. I'd need more than 7 points to take the Bengals here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore
San Francisco (+6.5) @ Buffalo (-6.5)
With a blowout victory over Kansas City, New York's forgotten team has ended their losing streak and somewhat gotten back into the thick of things. The AFC East appears to be a two horse race between the Jets and Patriots, but at 6 - 5 there is no reason for the Bills to roll over and give up on the season just yet. This is a very winnable game for them, and with the confidence boost of last week's road win, I think they tack on another easy win here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo
Denver (+7.5) @ New York Jets (-7.5)
If you thought Cleveland was tough to swallow, how hard is it to pick Denver this week? The Jets have won 5 straight, including 3 straight 30+ point efforts and wins on the road against New England and previously-undefeated Tennessee. Their 2nd ranked offense (PPG) goes against the Bronco's 28th ranked defense. The Bronco's 27th ranked rushing defense and 25th ranked passing defense will be ill-equiped to stop the Jets juggernaut offense. The Broncos have lost 4 of their last 6, including last week a home blowout loss to the Raiders. Isn't this a classic case of one team riding too high and the other team riding too low? Looks that way to me. And if you don't want to blindly follow my philosophy pick and want a concrete reason to like Denver, maybe the fact that they have the league's 3rd best passing attack and are going against the Jets' 26th ranked passing defense might make you see a shootout as a realistic possibility? Jets will likely win here, but I say they have their hands full this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Jets
New York Giants (-3.5) @ Washington (+3.5)
This is just a gut feeling more than anything. The Giants have been near-invincible all season, and Washington hasn't looked sharp in over a month now. No real reason to give them much of a chance. But with Bradshaw and Jacobs both not healthy and the Giants in command at 10 - 1, I could see them letting up a little bit, even if only subconsciously. Washington meanwhile is still very much alive at 7 - 4, thanks to some impressive upsets and a few easy out-of-division games. The Giants have had a brutal stretch of games over their last 5; @PIT, DAL, @PHI, BAL, @ARI, and now a division rival this week? I think the Redskins are less bruised up and are poised to pull off the upset.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Washington
New Orleans (+4.0) @ Tampa Bay (-4.0)
Hard to pick against Drew Brees, and with Reggie Bush coming back, this incredible offense just got even better. But Tampa Bay's defense is ranked 3rd in points given up this season, and the passing defense is ranked 2nd best in the NFL. I'm a firm believer in taking defense over offense, even if the offense is simply amazing. If Brees can carve these guys up, look out for New Orleans down the stretch.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
Miami (-9.0) @ St. Louis (+9.0)
St. Louis is bad, awful, horrendous, etc. etc., but every dog has its day. The Rams have lost four straight games by 19+ points, and they are bound to string together a halfway decent game sooner or later. Miami has let bad teams stick around this season, and despite their fantastic year, they only have one double digit victory. St. Louis should lose, but I say they lose respectably this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami
Atlanta (+4.0) @ San Diego (-4.0)
Every week people keep saying THIS IS THE WEEK that San Diego gets things "back on track", but every week they are wrong. This might just be the week though. The fact that a 4 - 7 team that has shown nothing over the last 5 weeks (1 - 4 with a 1 point win over KC) is a favorite over a 7 - 4 team that has won 3 of their last 4 (Including tough New Orleans and Carolina) tells you which side bookmakers want you on. If San Diego can stop the run as well as they are capable of and pass the ball well, they should be able to win this game and cover the spread. It is about time they do.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego
Kansas City (+3.0) @ Oakland (-3.0)
Kansas City is ripe for an upset, but I don't think it comes this week. Since waiving DeAngelo Hall, the Raiders defense has been clicking much better, and last week the offense finally woke up. Russell had a great game and McFadden had two TDs. This week McFadden and Fargas get the league's 2nd worst rushing defense, which should allow the Raiders to stay in their comfort zona and run the offense they want to. Tom Cable has done a good job getting the team to keep playing hard, and shockingly enough at 3 - 8 the Raiders are not totally out of the playoff hunt in the AFC West. I'm not saying they are going to make it; but they do have something to play for, and dare I say it, I think they pick up their second straight win this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Oakland
Pittsburgh (+1.0) @ New England (-1.0)
I've gone back and forth on this game a dozen times, but what it finally comes down to for me is the Pittsburgh defense. They are just so damn stingy. Yes Matt Cassell has come into his own and proven he can play good football at this level, but this is as tough of a defense as New England has faced. I think Roethlisberger can do enough in this game to get Pittsburgh the lead and then go into shutdown mode, which they can do as well as anyone. I'll take my chances on the Steelers "upset".
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Pittsburgh
Chicago (+3.5) @ Minnesota (-3.5)
Chicago matches up well against Minnesota. They have a great rushing defense, but they usually end up getting beaten by teams through the air. Minnesota's 26th ranked passing offense really isn't that capable of exploiting that weakness though. Minnesota meanwhile has a difficult time defending against the pass, and with Kyle Orton back, this could be trouble for Minnesota. I think the Bears get the win here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Chicago
MONDAY
Jacksonville (+3.0) @ Houston (-3.0)
Man, these games look so much better when they are scheduled during the preseason. Jacksonville was supposed to be a playoff threat; instead, they are simply an afterthought at this point. Houston isn't great, but they have an outstanding passing game that should be able to light Jacksonville up; and I just haven't seen any life out of them this year, making them impossible to back. Wouldn't have guessed the Texans would be favored or I'd be taking them way back when, but here we are.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
Good luck this week
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