need alittle advice from a mathmatician

[mmike032]

currently i have
risking -------to win
.5U --------2.5U( last leg of teaser OK-.5)
1U-----------1U(OK -7)(-110)
1U-----------1U(OK -7.5)(-110)

my options to hedge?
my options for a middle at +10 (+105)
or just let it ride
too many beers to comprend at this time

[Justin7]

Your Oklahoma bets look brilliant right now, with the line at +10.

Are you overexposed? If not, no reason to hedge.

[mmike032]

Your Oklahoma bets look brilliant right now, with the line at +10.

Are you overexposed? If not, no reason to hedge.

not at all ,just feel there is a chance for a middle if I buy .5 point to 10.5

[Ganchrow]

Are you overexposed? If not, no reason to hedge.

This is a misleading statement as given the OP's set-up unless he'd been underbetting he (assuming an advantage bettor) almost certainly will be overexposed given current marked-to-market risk holdings.

After winning the other legs of his teaser, as well as experiencing favorable line movement, the OP's exposure to OK risk factors has increased substantially. Therefore, if the OP had been placing n-Kelly optimal bets all along (or close to), some set of -EV hedges would very likely be in order due to his modified risk profile.

IMHO, without specifying probability estimates for the various outcomes, however, it's mathematically dishonest to make blanket hedging recommendations regarding a fairly complex correlated system such as this.

[mmike032]

thanks for the imput fellas but I let it ride

[hoopster42]

Your Oklahoma bets look brilliant right now, with the line at +10.

yeah, becoz we all know that the line movement is always right

ummm, try about 50% of the time the line movement is right

most bettors hate when the line moves in their favor coz its usually a tell tale sign that the pick will lose

[mmike032]

yeah, becoz we all know that the line movement is always right

ummm, try about 50% of the time the line movement is right

most bettors hate when the line moves in their favor coz its usually a tell tale sign that the pick will lose

hence my concern. to many folks on OU for my preference
and look how the games going