Lakers/Nuggets is a trap

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  • boombaby1987
    SBR High Roller
    • 10-03-12
    • 103

    #1
    Lakers/Nuggets is a trap
    The public's money is going to be insane in favor of the Lakers, a lot on the Lakers moneyline. Play accordingly.
  • neverstoppers23
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 11-26-09
    • 6302

    #2
    why wouldn't you love the lakers as a dog tonight with the way they have been playing? gasol and nash howard and kobe are finally together on the court. and they look exactly how we thought they would months ago. they finally look like one of the best teams in the west, and they are driven to show people how roaring good they are with nash.

    good luck sir, i never care what side the public is on or not. if its a good play its a good play
    Comment
    • TheProdigy8199
      SBR MVP
      • 11-05-10
      • 1694

      #3
      Originally posted by neverstoppers23
      why wouldn't you love the lakers as a dog tonight with the way they have been playing? gasol and nash howard and kobe are finally together on the court. and they look exactly how we thought they would months ago. they finally look like one of the best teams in the west, and they are driven to show people how roaring good they are with nash.

      good luck sir, i never care what side the public is on or not. if its a good play its a good play
      Agreed...the Lakers are ALWAYS a huge public play...that's just the way it is, just like Miami...it doesn't matter if they are giving or getting points, they will always have their backers. So the "public" really has no bearing on this game. This is also a really good spot for the Lakers. They are playing well and are finally completely healthy. Nash coming back has been a huge spark for this team and Metta World Peace coming off the bench has supplied them with extra offense, much like James Harden did for OKC. They also play a lot better defense than the Nuggets. They should be able to control the paint with Howard matched up against Kofous. Another thing people aren't considering is that the Nuggets played the late game last night and had to fly back to Denver. They probably didn't get into Denver until about 3am this morning, whereas the Lakers played the early game and have had much more time to rest up. The Lakers have a huge experience edge in tonights game...I think they win this outright, the points are a bonus.
      Comment
      • Eagles27
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 10-19-12
        • 800

        #4
        Denver has been shooting shit the past few games (even in the big win against the lowly bobcats), the nuggs were shooting shit from beyond the arc. Im just going to stay away from this one.
        Comment
        • bigballr9989
          SBR High Roller
          • 10-11-11
          • 212

          #5
          No play for me here but LAL seems like the way to go. As previously stated, Lakers with Nash look like the strong team we know they can be. Its obvious that Kobe really trusts Nash and the offense flows beautifully with him running the point. Nuggets got abused last night and will be hungry tho. The over seems like the play all things considered, but LA could get out to an early lead and roll to a big blowout. BOL to all
          Comment
          • crustyme
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 09-29-10
            • 16896

            #6
            lakers got on their flight immediately after the game yesterday so got a good nights sleep in denver.

            nuggets probably landed around 4am this morning after a late night game.

            lakers ml.
            Comment
            • vaas187
              SBR MVP
              • 03-01-12
              • 2280

              #7
              it's lakers or nothing.

              if lakers is around 50-60% it's a solid play.

              just like miami...

              typically lakers are 75%+ so vegas loves taking advantage of low public numbers on a highly public team
              i don't base my bet off that statistic and holds no factual baring but it's an angle i certainly do think about
              Comment
              • lonegambler
                SBR MVP
                • 01-15-09
                • 2151

                #8
                Originally posted by boombaby1987
                The public's money is going to be insane in favor of the Lakers, a lot on the Lakers moneyline. Play accordingly.
                I agree 100%
                Comment
                • Reign Man
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 12-18-12
                  • 178

                  #9
                  Denver is always tough to beat at home but the way both teams are playing it's really hard not to roll with the Lakers here. Lawson has been struggling and he's the difference maker, that achilles soreness has really been a ongoing problem for awhile and it's not letting him drive the way he's used to
                  Comment
                  • crackerjack
                    SBR MVP
                    • 08-01-06
                    • 3366

                    #10
                    Originally posted by crustyme
                    lakers got on their flight immediately after the game yesterday so got a good nights sleep in denver.

                    nuggets probably landed around 4am this morning after a late night game.

                    lakers ml.
                    Man I wish handicapping games was this easy...
                    Comment
                    • TheProdigy8199
                      SBR MVP
                      • 11-05-10
                      • 1694

                      #11
                      Originally posted by crackerjack
                      Man I wish handicapping games was this easy...
                      It is a solid point though...
                      Comment
                      • STAY STRONG
                        SBR MVP
                        • 03-07-10
                        • 2498

                        #12
                        Lake Show rolling!!
                        Comment
                        • rainman416
                          SBR MVP
                          • 09-20-12
                          • 1248

                          #13
                          Tired of these Goof threads that play on the assumption that the public loses every game... Vegas makes their money off the Vig. they set the lines hoping to get a 50/50 split... because of goooooves like this OP, there will be more action on Nugg's than you'd expect.. Lakers win SU tonight. the points are a gift I will take.
                          Comment
                          • CanuckG
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 12-23-10
                            • 21978

                            #14
                            Originally posted by rainman416
                            Tired of these Goof threads that play on the assumption that the public loses every game... Vegas makes their money off the Vig. they set the lines hoping to get a 50/50 split... because of goooooves like this OP, there will be more action on Nugg's than you'd expect.. Lakers win SU tonight. the points are a gift I will take.
                            Thanks Rainman tailing for a dime
                            Comment
                            • rainman416
                              SBR MVP
                              • 09-20-12
                              • 1248

                              #15
                              GL - My plays tonight are as follows:

                              Comment
                              • Jakenv21
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 11-01-12
                                • 374

                                #16
                                Originally posted by rainman416
                                Tired of these Goof threads that play on the assumption that the public loses every game... Vegas makes their money off the Vig. they set the lines hoping to get a 50/50 split... because of goooooves like this OP, there will be more action on Nugg's than you'd expect.. Lakers win SU tonight. the points are a gift I will take.
                                In theory that's what they want but I look at this stuff every day. So many games are no where near 50-50.
                                today
                                94% on NYK
                                80% on Cleveland
                                84% on Atlanta
                                90% on Orlando
                                88% on Lakers
                                source scoresandodds.com
                                Comment
                                • crustyme
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 09-29-10
                                  • 16896

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by crackerjack
                                  Man I wish handicapping games was this easy...
                                  you must be able to predict the future.

                                  cause us mere mortals look for every edge possible.
                                  Comment
                                  • rainman416
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 09-20-12
                                    • 1248

                                    #18
                                    Do those numbers reflect the play on the Spread, ML or both??
                                    Comment
                                    • Jakenv21
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 11-01-12
                                      • 374

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by rainman416
                                      Do those numbers reflect the play on the Spread, ML or both??
                                      Spread
                                      Comment
                                      • boombaby1987
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 10-03-12
                                        • 103

                                        #20
                                        Gl to all who bet. Ill check in after the game.
                                        Comment
                                        • El Sol
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 05-17-08
                                          • 876

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by rainman416
                                          Tired of these Goof threads that play on the assumption that the public loses every game... Vegas makes their money off the Vig. they set the lines hoping to get a 50/50 split... because of goooooves like this OP, there will be more action on Nugg's than you'd expect.. Lakers win SU tonight. the points are a gift I will take.
                                          Local and smaller books certainly want 50 / 50 action as they don't have the equity to absorb big hits, but the big books Generally want the Public Favorites to lose. The books most profitable weeks are always when a lot of Dogs win against America's favorite teams and lines will often adjust in attempts to make that happen.
                                          Comment
                                          • jeffdane
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 09-20-09
                                            • 5165

                                            #22
                                            doesnt just about everything point to an under?
                                            Comment
                                            • boombaby1987
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 10-03-12
                                              • 103

                                              #23
                                              Tried to warn you SBR. Another public burial.
                                              Comment
                                              • rainman416
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 09-20-12
                                                • 1248

                                                #24
                                                Lakers lose. Sucks. But it had nothing to do with how many people bet on them. Public action pushes spreads. Not performance. Who knew Dwight would get ejected in the 3rd? lol usually such a nice guy
                                                Comment
                                                • You mad bro
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 01-15-12
                                                  • 16641

                                                  #25
                                                  Lakers r a joke
                                                  Comment
                                                  • boombaby1987
                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                    • 10-03-12
                                                    • 103

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by rainman416
                                                    Lakers lose. Sucks. But it had nothing to do with how many people bet on them. Public action pushes spreads. Not performance. Who knew Dwight would get ejected in the 3rd? lol usually such a nice guy
                                                    Whatever you say, all I am saying is that being with the 88% public is a losing battle the majority of the time. We see it time and time again.

                                                    Too bad people didn't listen to me.
                                                    Comment
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