Vegas Dave's Thanksgiving Picks
Good luck and Happy Thanksgiving! 
Tennessee (-11.0) @ Detroit (+11.0)
Well, the whole world seems to be on Tennessee here, and I generally do not like being on the same side as everyone else. But Tennessee losing last week made overlooking this game a lot less likely. And while Tennessee may not seem like a blowout team, its worth noting they've played a lot of respectable teams this year. When they have played teams like Cincinnati, Houston, and Kansas City, they have won big (17, 19, and 24). Detroit is the easiest team Tennessee has faced this year. They should have no trouble moving the ball on the ground and through the air, and they should also be able to shut down Detroit. 11 points just isn't enough for me to take Detroit here, even on Turkey Day.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee
Seattle (+12.0) @ Dallas (-12.0)
By the numbers, Dallas should cover here without any trouble, as Seattle has proven to be useless defending against the pass. But with Hasselbeck back and with another game under his belt, I think Seattle will score enough points to keep this game close. Dallas does deserve respect, especially with Romo back, but I bet the following stat surprises you; since Week 2, Dallas has only won a single game by 12 or more; last week against San Francisco when they won by 13. They tend to play to the level of their opponent, and Seattle has strung together 3 straight respectable losses (3 to Washington, 6 to Arizona, 2 to Miami). I see Dallas letting Seattle hang around longer then they should, or leaving the door open for a late meaningless score to cover. Either way, I'll take my chances with the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas
Arizona (+3.0) @ Philadelphia (-3.0)
Well this one just screams philosophy pick. Philadelphia is coming off of their absolute worst game of the year, where they got completely embarrassed; especially Donovan McNabb. Before that they tied against terrible Cincinnati. At 5 - 5 - 1, 0 - 2 - 1 over their last 3, and with an injured Westbrook and a struggling McNabb, Philadelphia looks down and out. Arizona meanwhile looked very solid in their loss to the Giants, and at 7 - 4 (straight up and against the spread) with a seemingly unstoppable passing attack, they are quickly becoming one of the betting public's favorite teams. So why is Philly favored here? I feel like a pick'em or even Arizona as a slight favorite would have made a lot more sense. Arizona looks too good to be true here, so I'll go the other way. And if you aren't satisfied with that, Philadelphia having the 6th ranked passing defense and Arizona traveling across country on a short week should help make the pick seem a little more palpable.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Philadelphia
Tennessee (-11.0) @ Detroit (+11.0)
Well, the whole world seems to be on Tennessee here, and I generally do not like being on the same side as everyone else. But Tennessee losing last week made overlooking this game a lot less likely. And while Tennessee may not seem like a blowout team, its worth noting they've played a lot of respectable teams this year. When they have played teams like Cincinnati, Houston, and Kansas City, they have won big (17, 19, and 24). Detroit is the easiest team Tennessee has faced this year. They should have no trouble moving the ball on the ground and through the air, and they should also be able to shut down Detroit. 11 points just isn't enough for me to take Detroit here, even on Turkey Day.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee
Seattle (+12.0) @ Dallas (-12.0)
By the numbers, Dallas should cover here without any trouble, as Seattle has proven to be useless defending against the pass. But with Hasselbeck back and with another game under his belt, I think Seattle will score enough points to keep this game close. Dallas does deserve respect, especially with Romo back, but I bet the following stat surprises you; since Week 2, Dallas has only won a single game by 12 or more; last week against San Francisco when they won by 13. They tend to play to the level of their opponent, and Seattle has strung together 3 straight respectable losses (3 to Washington, 6 to Arizona, 2 to Miami). I see Dallas letting Seattle hang around longer then they should, or leaving the door open for a late meaningless score to cover. Either way, I'll take my chances with the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas
Arizona (+3.0) @ Philadelphia (-3.0)
Well this one just screams philosophy pick. Philadelphia is coming off of their absolute worst game of the year, where they got completely embarrassed; especially Donovan McNabb. Before that they tied against terrible Cincinnati. At 5 - 5 - 1, 0 - 2 - 1 over their last 3, and with an injured Westbrook and a struggling McNabb, Philadelphia looks down and out. Arizona meanwhile looked very solid in their loss to the Giants, and at 7 - 4 (straight up and against the spread) with a seemingly unstoppable passing attack, they are quickly becoming one of the betting public's favorite teams. So why is Philly favored here? I feel like a pick'em or even Arizona as a slight favorite would have made a lot more sense. Arizona looks too good to be true here, so I'll go the other way. And if you aren't satisfied with that, Philadelphia having the 6th ranked passing defense and Arizona traveling across country on a short week should help make the pick seem a little more palpable.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Philadelphia
And a Happy Thanksgiving 
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