Your thoughts on my strategy - Hedging

[tha]

Hey all,

I am looking at testing a bundle of different betting systems to find one that actually works. I noticed something on a popular sports betting site that I think carries an opportunity. I am starting this thread to hear what you all think of it.

I learnt across a few dozen tennis matches (consecutive ones) that there are ample number of perfect "reversal" of odds and I think this leads to a hedging opportunity.
- I choose to call them perfect because they tend to turn around a 100%,
- I call them reversal because they move in the opposite direction

Let me explain this with better illustration.

Match: A Vs B

Odds	A	B
Before Start of match	+145	-140
End of Game #4	+125	-130
End of Game #8	+110	-115
End of Game #13	-115	-115
End of Game #19	-125	+145

You will notice that the underdog turned the favorite across 19 games and hence the odds turned around. I am noticing similar "odds reversals" (as I call them) across many games. This certainly looks like an hedging opportunity across several games which could lead to a marginal profit in worst case scenarios.

I am currently tracking these reversals across 100 most recent ITF matches and I hope to find something worthy of betting soon.

I would really love to know if anyone has attempted anything similar in the past.

Thank you for reading.

[tto827]

Welcome!
Those odds are not 100% accurate because you will never see +145 and -140 (unless line shopping at multiple books, and even then somewhat unlikely), that's negative vig for the book.

If your pick of the underdog gets a lead in the match, it will lead to a good hedge opportunity, but if he trails the whole way, you likely will never find value for a hedge.

Hedging also is typically negative expected value. If you take someone at +140, and now it is available at -150, you are beating the book by 90 cents and only pay vig once. If you hedge with the other side at +140, you are buying a line with vig, and paying it on both sides.

**Mods should probably move this to the think tank, he won't get help here.

[tha]

Thanks @tt087,

I am clearly excited to see such a thing happen across most matches am tracking right now. I am looking forward to the data from all the 100 matches this month. I am pretty sure it will give me a better handle on understanding the probabilities/likelihood of these reversals.