Florida v. Florida St... insight please - homers welcome.

[ChalkyDog]

Florida is coming off of an awesome win by decimating Marquette. They also have a nice win under their belt by beating Wisconsin and Bo Ryan by 18.

FSU is coming off two losses at home. One of them was to a game Minny squad. The other was to a miserable Mercer team.

Obviously rivalry games have something different about them, and this is an insane rivalry.

That said, Florida has looked to be in the discussion as a top 3 basketball team so far. Their guard play led by Boyton is very good, and their big man down low, Patric Young, is a beast.

FSU brings Michael Snaer to the table, who I am high on, but he isn't near enough. Their other guy, White, is also pretty good, but nothing like the star power seen on the Gators.

It's not just that the Gators have better players, but they play very tough Defense, and are pretty incredible on offense.

Buzz Williams just said he has never experienced a loss like the one suffered to Florida a few days back. Buzz even endorsed them as legit national title contenders who "are capable of winning it all."

If we assume they can win it all, which I do, we can also safely presume there is no way in hell they lose to FSU tomorrow, right?

Spread is -4.5, but the ML is only going to be around -175. Depending on your betting style, both look like good bets tomorrow. To me at least.

Anyone else have a take on this? Most importantly, is anyone taking FSU - and why?

[Vegas39]

Like FL in this one. FSU got killed on boards vs Minny and expect same here

[Justin3587]

-4.5 is scary. Personally, I think the under is the play. I think it is at like 135.5, however if I had to take a spread it would be Florida State. ONLY because Florida hasn't played a road game yet. Last year they were pretty bad on the road. Losses include Rutgers, Tennessee, and Georgia. Plus the losses on the road to Syracuse and Kentucky, but I don't really count those as bad losses. I think last years team was better. 6-0 is a great start but really, the only half way decent teams they played were Wisconsin (who is nowhere near where they have been in recent years) and Marquette, who I think barely ends up .500

[RetardStrength]

Defense.... nuff said.

Take FL

[uncynd]

-4.5 is scary. Personally, I think the under is the play. I think it is at like 135.5, however if I had to take a spread it would be Florida State. ONLY because Florida hasn't played a road game yet. Last year they were pretty bad on the road. Losses include Rutgers, Tennessee, and Georgia. Plus the losses on the road to Syracuse and Kentucky, but I don't really count those as bad losses. I think last years team was better. 6-0 is a great start but really, the only half way decent teams they played were Wisconsin (who is nowhere near where they have been in recent years) and Marquette, who I think barely ends up .500

Completely agree with this entire post and I'm on Florida

[freakydave]

florida -6 for me

[Dr Nostron]

I watched the Noles in person vs Minn and they look clueless on offense and arent near the defensive team they have been in the past - at least to this point in the season.

They dont have a lot of depth or experience in the paint which doest bode well vs Young.

Will be shocked if Gators dont win by double digits here.

[aaserv08]

Agreed. FL covers easy.

[JJJ]

sometimes when it looks to easy it usually is

[Sir_Don_Yeggins]

I wouldn't over think this lol Florida > Fl. St -- if you don't like the spread bet moneyline lol

[daneblazer]

It takes FSU a while to get started. They don't know what type of team they have yet and Hamilton hasn't quite figured out his rotation. Take Florida

[Noles1992]

I know this is a rivalry but from looking at how they have done as of late including a loss to mercer and struggled with N.FLA.

seems the obvious play would be FLA.

DATE	OPPONENT	RESULT/TIME	RECORD/TICKETS
Fri, Nov 9	vs South Alabama	L 76-71	0-1 (0-0)
Mon, Nov 12	vs Buffalo	W 95-68	1-1 (0-0)
Fri, Nov 16	vs Brigham Young*	W 88-70	2-1 (0-0)
Sat, Nov 17	vs Saint Joseph's*	W 73-66	3-1 (0-0)
Wed, Nov 21	vs North Florida	W 75-67	4-1 (0-0)
Tue, Nov 27	vs #21 Minnesota	L 77-68	4-2 (0-0)
Sun, Dec 2	vs Mercer	L 61-56	4-3 (0-0)

[CanuckG]

Expect the unexpected

[daneblazer]

Mercer is a solid team. They returned nearly everyone from a team who won 27? games last year. They aren't a push over.

[Noles1992]

Expect the unexpected

True, that why I am staying away myself.

Mercer is a solid team. They returned nearly everyone from a team who won 27? games last year. They aren't a push over.

I know Mercer is pretty good and they play a lot of tough out of conference games this year .

[DennisT]

Florida -4 for me. Luck All!

[Leo818]

Florida -4 as well for me. GL

[DennisT]

You said it!!!

[Vegas39]

Expect the unexpected

like Portland covering vs UNLV

[alexschillig]

The public is on florida at 90 percent! I can not get myself to bet that seems too much like a setup

[DennisT]

Yeah. But I must admit I feel comfortable about the play.

[WeinketoWarrick]

I think Florida is the play but it's a huge public play so it looks a little fishy.

[Frisco]

The public is on florida at 90 percent! I can not get myself to bet that seems too much like a setup

Are the books supposed to make Florida a 10 point favorite on the road in a rivalry game? That's the only way more than 10% of ppl back FSU here and still prolly wouldn't crack 25% in that case. No set up here.

[Justin3587]

Also think the Under is a good play here. 137 at Heritage.

[Frisco]

I think Florida is the play but it's a huge public play so it looks a little fishy.

It's like betting OKC or the Heat, always huge public play and feels wrong but sometimes the better team actually covers.

[RetardStrength]

The public isn't always wrong

[Vegas39]

The public isn't always wrong

true but happens enough to make people gun shy

[ChalkyDog]

FSU is dead. Arena sounds like a morgue.

Looking good so far. The amount of public on the spread, made me take ML - because weird shit happens to ATS when the book is in this position.

Florida's press might be the thing that takes them to the championship.

[daneblazer]

Top recruit in the country visiting Tallahassee for this game too. Horrible time to lay an egg.

[Vegas39]

This getting ugly

[ChalkyDog]

Top recruit in the country visiting Tallahassee for this game too. Horrible time to lay an egg.

In football? I can't imagine Wiggins is at this game.

[musky123]

thoughts for 2nd half over/under

[ChalkyDog]

thoughts for 2nd half over/under

No idea, bud. If anything I might lean taking FSU.

Issue here is the fact that Florida is getting 2nd and 3rd chance buckets. No way FSU lets that happen.

Turnovers are going to happen vs. Florida's press. But they need to stop allowing Florida 2 and 3 possessions for every one of FSU's.

[ChalkyDog]

Shit, dane - you're right. Wiggins is at this game.

No idea why. Dude is unofficially inked at UK already. Going through these motions is what got Shabazz in trouble.

[steve1114]

i had FSU