Check in if you got buried by the over 50 and NYG -3.5 last night

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  • stevenash
    Moderator
    • 01-17-11
    • 66109

    #1
    Check in if you got buried by the over 50 and NYG -3.5 last night
    After dinner last night, around 6pm, told the wife I'm going to walk the dogs and that I want to see "Buzzy" the book for a bit, I wanted to see if Buzzy was taking action on UCONN women versus Maryland women.

    So me and the two puppies walk the half mile (the three of us needed the exercise) to the sports bar off the Brooklawn Country Club here in Fairfield Ct where Buzzy has been taking action since Reagan's second term.

    I chain up the puppies to the fence, enter the vendor of charisma, and find Buzzy on his usual stool at the end of the bar.

    Buzzy greets me we a hearty "How'sit going Nashy, how was your Thanksgiving?" Told him "going well,thanks, went to my in-laws for Turkey day, made pretend I liked them, and hand a nice meal"

    Buzzy offers me a beer, I decline, told him I gotta get up at 5am for work, he understands.
    I say to Buzzy, "you got a line on the UCONN girls tonight, monster game", he says yeah, UCONN -23, you want some?" I declined, told him I like UCONN to beat the Terps, but 23 is tall tall timber to lay.

    I glance at the dogs outside, they are OK, but they seem to want to walk some more.

    So, just before I leave, as an afterthought, I say to Buzzy, "who you like in this Giant game?"
    He says "Nashy, 80 percent of my phone calls and walk in action is Giants -3.5 and over 50.
    It's unreal, he goes on to tell me, if the over and G-Men cover, my profits this year are down the toilet and I'm out some......., you want something on this game?

    So just for shits and giggles, playing Joe Contrarian here, since every stat points to the over, and since everybody and their mama are on the over, I say to Buzzy, "yeah, give me a small 20 timer on the under 50, since everybody is going the other way.

    Buzzy chuckles, I go home.

    So, did that MNF game bury you?
    I know Buzzy is having a nice Christmas, Nashy made a 100 dollar pocket change.
  • lakerboy
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 04-02-09
    • 94463

    #2
    No I had skins ml +125 for 5 grand. Obvious letdown game for giants after big win over packers.
    Comment
    • Fang-Banger
      SBR MVP
      • 10-04-10
      • 2805

      #3
      Big over will hit next week with the saints/gmen. Classic 48-41 final written all over it
      Comment
      • ttrace35
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 09-30-10
        • 10828

        #4
        Originally posted by lakerboy
        No I had skins ml +125 for 5 grand. Obvious letdown game for giants after big win over packers.
        Sure you did.
        Comment
        • daimoshokage
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 02-07-11
          • 8935

          #5
          NAH...

          http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...skins-3-a.html
          Comment
          • Tully Mars 63
            SBR MVP
            • 08-06-11
            • 2750

            #6
            I had a1/2 unit on NYG, didn't help my weekend but didn't kill me either. I didn't take the over but was seriously thinking about it.
            Comment
            • unluckysob
              SBR MVP
              • 05-21-08
              • 1527

              #7
              I bet skins and lost---------ist half bet---had it figured all wrong
              Comment
              • Regul8er
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 11-06-07
                • 10666

                #8
                Stayed away.

                Bet Nebraska ML last night......still cant understand why USC was favorite on the road in this game!
                Comment
                • slacker00
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 10-06-05
                  • 12262

                  #9
                  It was one play. I had 15 bets open on that game last night, with all the props, going 10-5.

                  If you are getting buried by betting a single side, you need to learn basic bankroll management. 1 single bet should never exceed 1% of bankroll(i.e. 1 unit). I scale the bets down even further if they are correlated, i.e. my Giants ML and spread bet was less than 1 unit combined because ML and -2 1/2 are basically the same bet as well as a lot of my props were leaning on the Giants as well. I did just fine, typical variance, which is countered by reasonable bankroll management. Last night was a perfect example of a fluke result happening, yet the correct game analysis still won in the end for me. I'm not sure why I'm even saying all of this because 9 out of 10 people in here don't seem to get it, I see these same kinds of threads week after week. I usually ignore them, I guess I've been seeing a lot of new names in here lately, maybe just throwing out some free advice to help out those guys from what I've learned over the years. If you are putting all on your money on one play, even if it's a good play, eventually you'll get busted, it's just that simple.
                  Comment
                  • JayLA
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 09-11-12
                    • 7806

                    #10
                    Originally posted by slacker00
                    It was one play. I had 15 bets open on that game last night, with all the props, going 10-5.

                    If you are getting buried by betting a single side, you need to learn basic bankroll management. 1 single bet should never exceed 1% of bankroll(i.e. 1 unit). I scale the bets down even further if they are correlated, i.e. my Giants ML and spread bet was less than 1 unit combined because ML and -2 1/2 are basically the same bet as well as a lot of my props were leaning on the Giants as well. I did just fine, typical variance, which is countered by reasonable bankroll management. Last night was a perfect example of a fluke result happening, yet the correct game analysis still won in the end for me. I'm not sure why I'm even saying all of this because 9 out of 10 people in here don't seem to get it, I see these same kinds of threads week after week. I usually ignore them, I guess I've been seeing a lot of new names in here lately, maybe just throwing out some free advice to help out those guys from what I've learned over the years. If you are putting all on your money on one play, even if it's a good play, eventually you'll get busted, it's just that simple.
                    thanks for the good post.

                    1 unit is 1% of bankroll, really? this would imply a huge bankroll. 1% of 2,000 would only be 20 buck bets lol...
                    Comment
                    • slacker00
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 10-06-05
                      • 12262

                      #11
                      Originally posted by JayLA
                      thanks for the good post.

                      1 unit is 1% of bankroll, really? this would imply a huge bankroll. 1% of 2,000 would only be 20 buck bets lol...
                      Right. I guess if you like action (and we all do), and have confidence in your handicapping (we all do), make more uncorrelated bets. Like I said above, I had 15 bets going on one game, that's 15% of BR right there. It's common for me to have 50% of my BR in play at any given time as old bets get scored and new bets get placed day by day. I try to keep around 50% fluid at all times just in case some really good bets come out, I want to have the BR to play them. On Super Bowl Sunday last year, I had 100% of my BR in play, there were just too many good props to pass up. Just food for thought.

                      As for your BR being 2,000 or 20k or 200k, don't worry about that. Just win your bets, the rest will sort itself out.
                      Comment
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