Shouldn't capping football games be easier now?

HoulihansTX · 11-23-12, 11:31 AM

Books are not making many mistakes around this time, which saps the value out of plays.

seaborneq · 11-23-12, 02:06 PM

When is capping a slight advantage to the cappers versus the books? Never?

Sam Odom · 11-23-12, 02:45 PM

NFL 2team 6pt Teasers have more 'value' now than 6 weeks ago

yisman · 11-23-12, 02:49 PM

I just don't buy the idea that it's any easier to beat the lines later in the season than earlier in the season. Yes, by now you should have a very good idea about the teams, but how does that give you an edge? The books and other bettors also have the information. Earlier in the season the lines are probably not as 'sharp', but that's because the average bettor won't have a good idea about the teams anyway.

seaborneq · 11-23-12, 02:57 PM

Originally posted by yisman

I just don't buy the idea that it's any easier to beat the lines later in the season than earlier in the season. Yes, by now you should have a very good idea about the teams, but how does that give you an edge? The books and other bettors also have the information. Earlier in the season the lines are probably not as 'sharp', but that's because the average bettor won't have a good idea about the teams anyway.

Earlier as in the first few games? Books seem to be even better early because they have information that no one can see. Bettors are betting only on assumptions based on last years information and past trends/action. It just seems easier to me now that it did a few months ago. Maybe its because I have won the majority of my profits over the last month. The $$$$$ have it.

broadway6 · 11-23-12, 03:04 PM

no sea.... books get sharper and sharper

seaborneq · 11-23-12, 03:09 PM

Originally posted by broadway6

no sea.... books get sharper and sharper

So they are less sharp early in the season? Interesting.

wantitall4moi · 11-23-12, 03:23 PM

youre first mistake is trying to handicap something that cant be handicapped

broadway6 · 11-23-12, 03:31 PM

Originally posted by seaborneq

So they are less sharp early in the season? Interesting.

look around, lines makers are sharper than most gamblers 365 days a year. lines get razor sharp as the year goes along IMO. Gamblers can still win.

seaborneq · 11-23-12, 04:36 PM

Originally posted by wantitall4moi

youre first mistake is trying to handicap something that cant be handicapped

What can't be handicapped?

seaborneq · 11-23-12, 04:38 PM

Originally posted by broadway6

look around, lines makers are sharper than most gamblers 365 days a year. lines get razor sharp as the year goes along IMO. Gamblers can still win.

A few weeks ago, week 9 I think, the books were killed. Is that part of the 365 days of the year too?

k13 · 11-23-12, 04:43 PM

What's to cap?

Just pick a winner.

seaborneq · 11-23-12, 09:52 PM

Originally posted by k13

What's to cap?

Just pick a winner.

It's a 50/50 proposition. No problemo.

broadway6 · 11-23-12, 09:55 PM

Originally posted by seaborneq

A few weeks ago, week 9 I think, the books were killed. Is that part of the 365 days of the year too?

you have a point.... maybe i'm just a dummy b/c i seem to always lose by a fukkin hook or a point

pokernut9999 · 11-23-12, 10:00 PM

Just as many lines that are not sharp .

Back to back weeks Florida and Notre Dame were both favored by 17 one week and then 20 and 27 the next week.
Worst lines I had ever seen , neither team could have covered with shut outs.

broadway6 · 11-23-12, 10:09 PM

Originally posted by pokernut9999

Just as many lines that are not sharp .

Back to back weeks Florida and Notre Dame were both favored by 17 one week and then 20 and 27 the next week.
Worst lines I had ever seen , neither team could have covered with shut outs.

yeah, starting to think the OP is right. lines are sharp (and not sharp) year around. i'm NOW thinking the end of the year does not make a difference.

yisman · 11-24-12, 01:23 AM

Originally posted by seaborneq

Earlier as in the first few games? Books seem to be even better early because they have information that no one can see. Bettors are betting only on assumptions based on last years information and past trends/action. It just seems easier to me now that it did a few months ago. Maybe its because I have won the majority of my profits over the last month. The $$$$$ have it.

lines get sharper as the season goes along

ChalkyDog · 11-24-12, 01:46 AM

It got easy around week 4 and 5... it gets impossible this week, as it's impractical to try and cap emotion.

The bowl games on the other hand, gonna be like taking candy from a fetus.

seaborneq · 11-24-12, 01:56 AM

Originally posted by ChalkyDog

It got easy around week 4 and 5... it gets impossible this week, as it's impractical to try and cap emotion.

The bowl games on the other hand, gonna be like taking candy from a fetus.

Why are bowl games going to be easier? So you feel there was a stretch in which the games were easier to cap? Interesting dichotomy on the subject and very differing opinions.

seaborneq · 11-25-12, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by pokernut9999

Just as many lines that are not sharp .

Back to back weeks Florida and Notre Dame were both favored by 17 one week and then 20 and 27 the next week.
Worst lines I had ever seen , neither team could have covered with shut outs.

I think you have said a mouthful Poker. There could be more bad lines as the season goes on and better good lines too.

yisman · 11-25-12, 01:39 PM

with bowl games there are some trends (and things like which teams play better in bowls/are more motivated in situations) that aren't properly accounted for.

I would agree that it's easier to find value in bowl games than it is during the season.

k13 · 11-25-12, 01:52 PM

Originally posted by seaborneq

It's a 50/50 proposition. No problemo.

How many pushes?
How many times has the line mattered?

seaborneq · 11-25-12, 02:00 PM

Originally posted by yisman

with bowl games there are some trends (and things like which teams play better in bowls/are more motivated in situations) that aren't properly accounted for.

I would agree that it's easier to find value in bowl games than it is during the season.

A lot of folks are wiped out financially by the time the bowl season rolls around. But at least somebody wins during the football season as it draws to a close.

Covy · 11-25-12, 02:01 PM

Can't wait for Bowl Season

Bigbill365 · 11-25-12, 02:02 PM

Heres a trick to winning put your money on the team that has won 1 game agianst a team coming off a loss

dailydose1 · 11-25-12, 02:03 PM

Bowl season will be where its at!

Smoke · 11-25-12, 02:05 PM

Yes and it is

Scorpion · 11-25-12, 02:06 PM

you cant make money betting on sports, i would rather waste my money on my ugly girlfriend

seaborneq · 11-25-12, 02:13 PM

Originally posted by Scorpion

you cant make money betting on sports, i would rather waste my money on my ugly girlfriend

Most of us don't know this long term, and the ugly girlfriend needs love too.

Beetlejuice · 11-25-12, 02:26 PM

Honestly, it's just been over this past week or two, but I feel like I'm losing control over my wagers, it's truly a losery feeling, I just feel I can't make anything stick or make any headway with my bankroll.

seaborneq · 11-25-12, 04:17 PM

Lines seemed a lot softer today. Maybe its just me.

seaborneq · 11-27-12, 11:41 AM

Lines were soft.

RonPaul2008 · 11-27-12, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by seaborneq

You have all the information you need on every team now. Or are the lines just that good that it doesn't make any difference?

All sports are much easier to beat early in the season.

seaborneq · 11-27-12, 02:20 PM

Originally posted by RonPaul2008

All sports are much easier to beat early in the season.

Interesting