My 2000th post - why your write ups are all total bs

[mathdotcom]

Example:

Team A vs. Team B
My pick, Team A ML -110

Player 1 for Team A has never lost to an Eastern conference team on a Tuesday.
[This statistic is obviously meaningless, but what about stats about Team A's record vs. Team B over the past 10 years. Wtf does a game 10 years ago mean today?]

Player 2 for Team A will be eager to make up for his poor performance.
[Okay. Or maybe his poor performance is because he sucks and will suck again tonight.]

Players 3 and 4 for Team A have chemistry.
[This is a favorite of Vegas Dave. Look at his writeup on Capitals/Kings game today, he uses it for almost all of his reasons for his bet]

Player 5 always does well in <City of Team B>.
[For one, this could just be randomness. For another, it inevitably refers back to my first point, that games from previous years are essentially irrelevant]


If you're going to post a write-up, talk about information that you think has not already been included in the line. The fact that Team B just plain sucks is already included in the line. If you don't have information that wouldn't be included in the line, then you're just paying juice on a coin flip. This is known as "being a moron".

[onthewhat]

[mathdotcom]

I'm sure you could all add 100 more examples of this writeup stupidity.

[flyingillini]

[Nicky Santoro]

even if you know 1,353 things about a game.. and you think you have an advantage, keep dreaming.. no matter how good a team is or how bad a team is.. the spread makes it 50-50.. it's like handicapping a flip of a coin and trying to think about what next flip will be.. ok, heads has been hot of late, yet tails has won the last 2 flips, however, heads is 22-5 in its last 27 flips, but heads is also 6-0 in spins that were taken place following 2 straight tails.. so i love heads on next spin..

and that is basically what a write up is worth.. zilcho.. i dont care how much you know, the line is already applied into it.. that's why spread is there, to make it 50-50. so even if heads is hot and all and you think heads is the good bet.. its 50-50 no matter what..

write ups are silly.. and waste of time..

[gordon gekko]

[Panic]

I dont do write ups or any of that sh!t. Mainly because I'm not talented enough. But, we are on a gambling forum, what else would you have posters do after they make a pick? Or should there be no pick threads with no write ups also? That would be pretty funny on a gambling forum. It would be like going to a workout forum and saying dont post any workout routines.

[flyingillini]

I dont do write ups or any of that sh!t. Mainly because I'm not talented enough. But, we are on a gambling forum, what else would you have posters do after they make a pick? Or should there be no pick threads with no write ups also? That would be pretty funny on a gambling forum. It would be like going to a workout forum and saying dont post any workout routines.

Exactly!

[mathdotcom]

A better analogy would be someone on a politics forum saying Obama will win because his last name has fewer letters than McCain's does.

The uncertainty inherent in betting markets is not witnessed in working out forums.

I have no problem with people posting picks or saying their pick is because of a gut instinct. But don't pretend like it's a science and you derived a proof that the probability of one team beating the spread is > 50% (or should I say 52.4%).

[rjt721]

Nice. A write-up on why write-ups suck.

[reno cool]

Example:

Team A vs. Team B
My pick, Team A ML -110

Player 1 for Team A has never lost to an Eastern conference team on a Tuesday.
[This statistic is obviously meaningless, but what about stats about Team A's record vs. Team B over the past 10 years. Wtf does a game 10 years ago mean today?]

Player 2 for Team A will be eager to make up for his poor performance.
[Okay. Or maybe his poor performance is because he sucks and will suck again tonight.]

Players 3 and 4 for Team A have chemistry.
[This is a favorite of Vegas Dave. Look at his writeup on Capitals/Kings game today, he uses it for almost all of his reasons for his bet]

Player 5 always does well in <City of Team B>.
[For one, this could just be randomness. For another, it inevitably refers back to my first point, that games from previous years are essentially irrelevant]


If you're going to post a write-up, talk about information that you think has not already been included in the line. The fact that Team B just plain sucks is already included in the line. If you don't have information that wouldn't be included in the line, then you're just paying juice on a coin flip. This is known as "being a moron".

well said. wannabe professional handicappers should consider your post.

[VegasDave]

Is this why you dislike me so much?

Write-Ups are very easy to ignore... usually easy to identify from the thread title. Skip over them.

I think its sad that discussion about why a game is or is not a good bet is looked at as a bad thing on a GAMBLING FORUM.