1st, 2nd, or 3rd Period NHL Lines

[blittydeuce]

How does one find an edge playing these?

[MAKAVELI 96]

this is a record of over/under 1.5 for 1st periods and includes data until Nov 17.



nhl.com has stats for 1st period goals for and against for every team.

i'm trying to develop a first period over/under system by using a weighted distribution system of results from the previous 3,5,7, and 10 games and also the results from teams with similar playing styles. so far it's 13-7 over the last 3 days.

plays for today are:

min/pit under 1.5
edm/clb under 1.5
mon/car over 1.5
fla/tb under 1.5
col/cal over 1.5
chi/phx over 1.5

[blittydeuce]

thanks makaveli good lookin'

[avssakic]

how do you decide on whether or not a game is a play or not?

[smitch124]

Good info, GL tonight Makaveli

[MAKAVELI 96]

you could just look at the predicted 1st period total and bet on the over in games that are the furthest away from 1.5 or the under where they are the furthest below 1.5.

i'm not betting any money at the moment and just capping every single game and seeing whether there is any correlation between the wins and the variation from 1.5. i suspect that over the long run it would be better to put a small amount of money on every single game rather than cherrypicking games.

[avssakic]

I was just curious which way you went win a team has a high over and the other team has a high under

[MAKAVELI 96]

the stats i posted in the first post aren't really used to decide the predicted 1st period outcome. you can use those as general guidelines to say stuff like nyr and tb are generally low scoring 1st period teams but a lot of that depends on the type of teams that they play.

if you tally up all of the results you'll see that 129 games have gone over and 131 games have gone under so far during this season.