Denver is looking a lot sharper the past couple of games. The Rockets are not a good team and I highly doubt they make the playoffs. A lot of love surrounding this team because of some recent great performances by Harden. Tonight Harden will have to deal with Andre Iguodala, one of the top 3 perimeter defenders in the NBA imo. Iguodala struggles guarding quicker guys with speedy dribbling, but Harden is more of a crafty dribbler with a deceptive first step. Harden struggled against the bigger Wesley Mathews in the last game against Portland and while I expect him to play solid tonight, I think Igu will make him a volume shooter and force the Rockets to find a second option. Iguodala doesn't need to be a huge factor offensively in this game. Look for him to be a threat on the glass and in the passing game as always.
When Harden doesn't score 30+, this Houston team is not very good at all. Their second option is Jeremy Lin --a pg with some skills but he will be facing one of the best young PGs in the league today in Ty Lawson. It is absolutely grueling chasing this kid around for 4 quarters. He never spots moving and might be the quickest (not fastest) player in all of basketball. Lin is not a very good defender, and I see him struggled on that end of the floor tonight.
Asik was a good acquisition for this team. Big, an offensive rebounder with good hands. Asik will face a combination of Koufus, McGee, and Mozgof tonight probably. I'm not an advocate of Karl bring McGee off the bench as he is one of the most athletic C's I've ever seen play the game. He's a mental nutcase but if this guy continues on this path, he'll be a stud in a few years. The Nuggets have the size at the C position to give Asik some different looks. Asik should play well but it's always tough when you have the luxury of throwing 3 different guys at him.
Patrick Patterson is not a starting player in this league. He's a mid range jump shooter at the PF position. Faried never has any plays called for him in this system. He's a guy that's going to get you the lose balls, slam the glass, and clean up anything down low on the offensive end. Still improving as a defender but I doubt Patterson can keep up with Faried's intensity.
Parsons is a pretty good young guy that's going to play a lot a lot of minutes this year. The Rockets are really lacking at the 3 spot. Parsons will have to guard Gallinari tonight--a very similar play to Parsons--but just a bit better on the offensive end. Gallinari and Parsons are both solid rebounders, the play very similar defense. Gallo just a little more effective as he can not only shoot but has the ability to put the ball down on the deck at 6'10.
The Rockets run a hard dribbling offense. What I mean by this is they always give it to their first option after crossing the timeline. The first option here is a high pick with Asik. If Denv. is able to trap that effectively, Houst will have about 12 sec left on the shot clock. Harden will pull out and gives it to Lynn if he can't make a play, but more often then not he will try to create a play for himself or someone else on the team. Lynn essentially tries the same thing with either Patterson or Asik. This is a stagnant offense for the most part, too much dribbling, with really only 1 knock down shooter on this team in James Harden.
The Rockets bench is kind of a mess. They do have Morris and Delfino who are pretty solid, but Aldrich Tony Douglas, Dequan Cook--no one that good. Cook should get some time in this game as you need to hit 3s in order to stay with Denver. Delfino is a guy that can create his own shot when needed.
The Nuggets counter with the best bench in the NBA by far. A. Miller, Wilson Chandler, Brewer, McGee. All of these guys can create their own shots at will. A. Miller is basically a starting PG coming off the bench--bringing him in to face Tony Douglas. I expect Miller's veteran savvyness to play here, and for him to get the better of Douglas in the post tonight. Look for a good game from this Denver bench as the Rockets don't really have any good defenders coming off their bench.
Not going to say much about the other two games as I'm in a hurry right now, but PHX has significant advantages in this game. PHX is starting Beasely at the 3 this year, a wise decision imo as Scola and Gortat are both back to the basket/pick and roll players and Beasely like to play off the dribble. I don't see any chance that Kidd Gilchrest can hang with Beasley tonight. He's not used to facing guys like this in college who are 6'8 and can dribble the basketball. Gragic is a good PG. A knock down shooter, a great passer, a solid defender. The guy just gets better every year. Kemba Walker should be able to get his on him, but Dragic has about 5 inches on Walker and Gortat/Scola setting screen on all on the smaller Walker should give Dragic some easy lanes to the bucket. Walker will have a difficult time fighting through screen tonight.
When Byron Mullons is the 2nd option on your basketball team, you have some issues. The Suns have far too many players who can make things happen on the offense end. Brown off the bench is a better player than anyone in a Bobcats uniform.
Bobcats are the worst team in the NBA at guarding the perimeter. There is no comparison. They will be the worst when the year ends. The Suns have a few knock down shooters so expect that weakness to get exposed tonight.
NUGGETS +3 -115 Risk $230 to win $200
NUGGETS ML/SUNS ML/CELTICS ML Risk $100 to win $343
SUNS ML -145 Risk $145 to win $100
Don't see anything that warrants a big play tonight. Lot of games where I see no value. I'll probably make a play on the late game. Look at for a $600 play later this week.
When Harden doesn't score 30+, this Houston team is not very good at all. Their second option is Jeremy Lin --a pg with some skills but he will be facing one of the best young PGs in the league today in Ty Lawson. It is absolutely grueling chasing this kid around for 4 quarters. He never spots moving and might be the quickest (not fastest) player in all of basketball. Lin is not a very good defender, and I see him struggled on that end of the floor tonight.
Asik was a good acquisition for this team. Big, an offensive rebounder with good hands. Asik will face a combination of Koufus, McGee, and Mozgof tonight probably. I'm not an advocate of Karl bring McGee off the bench as he is one of the most athletic C's I've ever seen play the game. He's a mental nutcase but if this guy continues on this path, he'll be a stud in a few years. The Nuggets have the size at the C position to give Asik some different looks. Asik should play well but it's always tough when you have the luxury of throwing 3 different guys at him.
Patrick Patterson is not a starting player in this league. He's a mid range jump shooter at the PF position. Faried never has any plays called for him in this system. He's a guy that's going to get you the lose balls, slam the glass, and clean up anything down low on the offensive end. Still improving as a defender but I doubt Patterson can keep up with Faried's intensity.
Parsons is a pretty good young guy that's going to play a lot a lot of minutes this year. The Rockets are really lacking at the 3 spot. Parsons will have to guard Gallinari tonight--a very similar play to Parsons--but just a bit better on the offensive end. Gallinari and Parsons are both solid rebounders, the play very similar defense. Gallo just a little more effective as he can not only shoot but has the ability to put the ball down on the deck at 6'10.
The Rockets run a hard dribbling offense. What I mean by this is they always give it to their first option after crossing the timeline. The first option here is a high pick with Asik. If Denv. is able to trap that effectively, Houst will have about 12 sec left on the shot clock. Harden will pull out and gives it to Lynn if he can't make a play, but more often then not he will try to create a play for himself or someone else on the team. Lynn essentially tries the same thing with either Patterson or Asik. This is a stagnant offense for the most part, too much dribbling, with really only 1 knock down shooter on this team in James Harden.
The Rockets bench is kind of a mess. They do have Morris and Delfino who are pretty solid, but Aldrich Tony Douglas, Dequan Cook--no one that good. Cook should get some time in this game as you need to hit 3s in order to stay with Denver. Delfino is a guy that can create his own shot when needed.
The Nuggets counter with the best bench in the NBA by far. A. Miller, Wilson Chandler, Brewer, McGee. All of these guys can create their own shots at will. A. Miller is basically a starting PG coming off the bench--bringing him in to face Tony Douglas. I expect Miller's veteran savvyness to play here, and for him to get the better of Douglas in the post tonight. Look for a good game from this Denver bench as the Rockets don't really have any good defenders coming off their bench.
Not going to say much about the other two games as I'm in a hurry right now, but PHX has significant advantages in this game. PHX is starting Beasely at the 3 this year, a wise decision imo as Scola and Gortat are both back to the basket/pick and roll players and Beasely like to play off the dribble. I don't see any chance that Kidd Gilchrest can hang with Beasley tonight. He's not used to facing guys like this in college who are 6'8 and can dribble the basketball. Gragic is a good PG. A knock down shooter, a great passer, a solid defender. The guy just gets better every year. Kemba Walker should be able to get his on him, but Dragic has about 5 inches on Walker and Gortat/Scola setting screen on all on the smaller Walker should give Dragic some easy lanes to the bucket. Walker will have a difficult time fighting through screen tonight.
When Byron Mullons is the 2nd option on your basketball team, you have some issues. The Suns have far too many players who can make things happen on the offense end. Brown off the bench is a better player than anyone in a Bobcats uniform.
Bobcats are the worst team in the NBA at guarding the perimeter. There is no comparison. They will be the worst when the year ends. The Suns have a few knock down shooters so expect that weakness to get exposed tonight.
NUGGETS +3 -115 Risk $230 to win $200
NUGGETS ML/SUNS ML/CELTICS ML Risk $100 to win $343
SUNS ML -145 Risk $145 to win $100
Don't see anything that warrants a big play tonight. Lot of games where I see no value. I'll probably make a play on the late game. Look at for a $600 play later this week.
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