Vegas Dave's NFL Picks Week 11 (Every Game w/ Write Up)
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Good luck this weekend!
THURSDAY
New York Jets (+3.0) @ New England (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England (Loss)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England (Loss)
SUNDAY
Denver (+6.5) @ Atlanta (-6.5)
The Atlanta train just keeps on rolling, and everyone is hopping aboard. Can't blame anyone, it is an awesome story and Matt Ryan does seem to be the real deal. Interestingly enough, I always seem to end up picking against them; and it isn't out of disrespect for them, but more that I just feel their opponents are on the right side of the spread. I feel that way again this week. Denver is not a good football team, but they have a powerful passing attack that I believe will be able to shootout with Atlanta. I'm expecting this to be a last-one-with-the-ball-wins type of game. New Orleans let me down last week, but I believe Denver will keep this loss in the 1 - 6 point range.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta
Minnesota (+4.0) @ Tampa Bay (-4.0)
On top of the fact that Tampa Bay is a great home team and Minnesota isn't a very good road team, I believe that Tampa Bay has the personnel and the scheme to keep Minnesota's rushing game in check. They also have a passing attack that should be able to move the ball on Minnesota. Tampa Bay matches up well here on both sides of the ball, and I believe they are the pick.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
Baltimore (+7.0) @ New York Giants (-7.0)
Through my slump, the one thing I've been able to count on is the Baltimore Ravens. People refuse to accept that the offense is real, and refuse to acknowledge the defense is back, too. A team so powerful on defense and so smart and creative on offense shouldn't be giving up 7 points to anyone in the league, in my opinion. Yes, that includes the Giants, who also happen to be pretty darn good on both sides of the ball. New York has proven once again to be the team to beat in the NFC, but that doesn't mean they are going to blow out everyone. Coming off of two straight division rivalry games doesn't usually help heal the bruises, either. I'll take the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants
Oakland (+10.5) @ Miami (-10.5)
With DeAngelo Hall gone, the Raiders have actually improved on defense, and they had an outstanding game defensively against Carolina. The problem stems from the anemic offense; but Jamarcus Russell and, more importantly, Darren McFadden are set to return. This should provide at least somewhat of a spark, even with Javon Walker out. Miami is also very likely to be thinking about New England next week and be chalking this game up as a win. In what should be a very low scoring affair, 10.5 is too many points to pass up on.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami
New Orleans (-5.5) @ Kansas City (+5.5)
Very quietly, 1 - 8 Kansas City has put together three straight solid efforts, against three decent opponents in San Diego, New York Jets, and Tampa Bay no less. They've played well enough to win in all 3 but just couldn't finish late. I'm sure I will regret picking against New Orlean's pass happy attack, but KC has played very well and they seem to be gaining confidence. Tyler Thigpen is working well in the new spread offense they installed for him, and Larry Johnson returns this week. I call stunner; Kansas City upsets the high-octane Saints.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Kansas City
Houston (+8.0) @ Indianapolis (-8.0)
Houston had a miserable game last week against Baltimore, but that will happen sometimes when you face a tough defensive team. Indianapolis isn't quite that. Houston tends to play Indy tough more often then not, and they have the passing attack to keep up with them. After the last meeting between these two teams ended in a miraculous Indianapolis comeback, Houston should know two things; not to be stupid, and that if they play well for 60 minutes they can beat these guys. I don't think they will this Sunday, but I do think 8 points is way too many to pass up on.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
Detroit (+14.0) @ Carolina (-14.0)
Carolina's offense isn't explosive enough to keep giving up these double digit point spreads, but I have to bite again this week. Carolina's defense is stingy and should prove to be very difficult for Detroit to score on, especially IN Carolina. And the Panthers offense should bounce back after a poor showing in Oakland; Detroit's defense will be much easier to handle. I'll give up the whopping 2 TDs and expect the Carolina blowout.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina
Philadelphia (-9.0) @ Cincinnati (+9.0)
Really no need for a long write-up here. Yes, Cinci is coming off of a win, but they still don't have the talent to hand with a team like Philadelphia with Palmer out. In need of wins and stuck in one of the NFL's toughest divisions, Philadelphia will not take games like this one lightly; they will be focused and they should be able to win this game comfortably.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
Chicago (+3.5) @ Green Bay (-3.5)
Chicago is a tough team to crack, but there are a few concerning issues for them right now; Rex Grossman is not a good quarterback, and they can't seem to defend against the pass. Very worrisome, considering Green Bay does a pretty good job defending against the pass and they have a very strong passing attack themselves. That extra little .5 scares me a bit, but I like the Packers to cover at home here in a game they match up in well.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay
Arizona (-3.0) @ Seattle (+3.0)
I promised myself I wouldn't over-think things this week, and that I wouldn't try to outsmart the public and the bookies and all that and just try to cap games. But COME ON, if this isn't a philosophy pick that smacks you in the face with a philosophy bat, what is? Seattle plus only 3?!? I know that Hasselbeck is coming back, but they weren't exactly lighting up the scoreboard before he got injured. 6 - 3 Arizona VS. 2 - 7 Seattle. The league's highest ranked offense in total scoring VS. the league's 25th ranked defense in points given up. The league's 2nd best passing attack (and that includes games Boldin was out, mind you!) VS the league's 2nd WORST (31st ranked) passing defense? +3.0?!?! Shouldn't Seattle be getting double digits here? 90% of bettors are on Arizona and the line hasn't moved! Bookmakers have been missing on these over the last few weeks and I doubt they'd set another trap if they weren't sure about it. Doesn't get much more clear cut "looks too easy" than this!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Seattle
St. Louis (+6.5) @ San Francisco (-6.5)
"Too many points" seems to be the mantra of this Dime, but it again rings true here. Yes, the Rams got shellacked by the Jets last week in embarrassing fashion. But the Jets are a good team. So are their last two losses, Arizona and New England. I see two bad football teams that aren't that far apart from eachother. These games tend to stay close anyway; 5 of the last 6 meeting between these two teams has been decided by 4 points or less. Singletary gets his first coaching win this week, but not in comfortable fashion.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco
Tennessee (-2.5) @ Jacksonville (+2.5)
Well, you saw how well picking against Tennessee did me last week. This team is the best team in the NFL, they are undefeated, and now Jacksonville is supposed to beat them? Why? Because they blew out a pathetic Detroit team? Jacksonville has been inconsistent and bad all year long, but they are only a 2.5 point underdog to the best team in the league? This may be a trap, but I'm beginning to think it isn't a trap; it is the public's unwillingness to accept that this Titans team is for real, and that "they are due for a loss" isn't a valid reason to pick against them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee
San Diego (+5.5) @ Pittsburgh (-5.5)
Teams often live and die by their quarterback, and Big Ben blew the game last week against Indy. He was visibly torn up over it, and when a quarterback starts getting in their own head too much, it is usually a recipe for disaster. I find it hard to believe he will miraculously be mistake free this week, even against a bad San Diego pass defense. I also think Pittsburgh will run a simpler playbook with more runs to try and build up Ben's confidence again. As such, I think underachieving San Diego is the right side here with 5.5 points. It should be a close game and I even think Pittsburgh will prevail, but it will be by around a field goal.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
Dallas (-1.0) @ Washington (+1.0)
I really hate to jump on the TONY ROMO WILL FIX EVERYTHING bandwagon, especially considering the fact that he doesn't play defense, a unit that has given up 30+ in 3 of their last 4 games. Sure, you could argue they've been on the field too much thanks to the hapless offense, but that still doesn't excuse that many points given up. But can you really take Washington here? They've been asleep for an entire month now, losing to St. Louis, barely getting by Cleveland and Detroit, and getting smashed by the Steelers. Dallas needs a win bad, they've already lost to hated Washington once this season, and they get their leader back which should be a huge boost to the entire locker room. Have to take the Cowboys here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas
MONDAY
Cleveland (+5.0) @ Buffalo (-5.0)
Cleveland just can't seem to get things straight. When their offense was dead, their defense was alive and well. Now the offense starts clicking and the defense forgets how to play. Hard to endorse an inconsistent team like this. Baltimore and Denver have strong offenses this season though, something you can't say about the Bills lately. Edwards has looked terrible and this is another team that is tough to endorse the way they've been playing of late. As if the 5 points aren't enough, this happens to qualify as a philosophy pick; Buffalo is coming off of three straight division rivalry games and is now favored in this game. Leaving it all out on the field against all of your rivals for three disheartening losses, and now you want me to give away 5 points, too? No thanks.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Cleveland
Good luck this weekend!
THE RECORD
Last Week
With the spread: 6 - 8 - 0 (.429)
Without the spread: 9 - 5 - 0 (.643)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 0 - 1 - 0 (.000)
Season
With the spread: 73 - 68 - 3 (.518)
Without the spread: 91 - 53 - 0 (.632)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 11 - 4 - 0 (.733)
THE PICKS
* - Indicates Upset Pick
^ - Indicates Philosophical Pick
Last Week
With the spread: 6 - 8 - 0 (.429)
Without the spread: 9 - 5 - 0 (.643)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 0 - 1 - 0 (.000)
Season
With the spread: 73 - 68 - 3 (.518)
Without the spread: 91 - 53 - 0 (.632)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 11 - 4 - 0 (.733)
THE PICKS
* - Indicates Upset Pick
^ - Indicates Philosophical Pick
THURSDAY
New York Jets (+3.0) @ New England (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England (Loss)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England (Loss)
SUNDAY
Denver (+6.5) @ Atlanta (-6.5)
The Atlanta train just keeps on rolling, and everyone is hopping aboard. Can't blame anyone, it is an awesome story and Matt Ryan does seem to be the real deal. Interestingly enough, I always seem to end up picking against them; and it isn't out of disrespect for them, but more that I just feel their opponents are on the right side of the spread. I feel that way again this week. Denver is not a good football team, but they have a powerful passing attack that I believe will be able to shootout with Atlanta. I'm expecting this to be a last-one-with-the-ball-wins type of game. New Orleans let me down last week, but I believe Denver will keep this loss in the 1 - 6 point range.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta
Minnesota (+4.0) @ Tampa Bay (-4.0)
On top of the fact that Tampa Bay is a great home team and Minnesota isn't a very good road team, I believe that Tampa Bay has the personnel and the scheme to keep Minnesota's rushing game in check. They also have a passing attack that should be able to move the ball on Minnesota. Tampa Bay matches up well here on both sides of the ball, and I believe they are the pick.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
Baltimore (+7.0) @ New York Giants (-7.0)
Through my slump, the one thing I've been able to count on is the Baltimore Ravens. People refuse to accept that the offense is real, and refuse to acknowledge the defense is back, too. A team so powerful on defense and so smart and creative on offense shouldn't be giving up 7 points to anyone in the league, in my opinion. Yes, that includes the Giants, who also happen to be pretty darn good on both sides of the ball. New York has proven once again to be the team to beat in the NFC, but that doesn't mean they are going to blow out everyone. Coming off of two straight division rivalry games doesn't usually help heal the bruises, either. I'll take the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants
Oakland (+10.5) @ Miami (-10.5)
With DeAngelo Hall gone, the Raiders have actually improved on defense, and they had an outstanding game defensively against Carolina. The problem stems from the anemic offense; but Jamarcus Russell and, more importantly, Darren McFadden are set to return. This should provide at least somewhat of a spark, even with Javon Walker out. Miami is also very likely to be thinking about New England next week and be chalking this game up as a win. In what should be a very low scoring affair, 10.5 is too many points to pass up on.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami
New Orleans (-5.5) @ Kansas City (+5.5)
Very quietly, 1 - 8 Kansas City has put together three straight solid efforts, against three decent opponents in San Diego, New York Jets, and Tampa Bay no less. They've played well enough to win in all 3 but just couldn't finish late. I'm sure I will regret picking against New Orlean's pass happy attack, but KC has played very well and they seem to be gaining confidence. Tyler Thigpen is working well in the new spread offense they installed for him, and Larry Johnson returns this week. I call stunner; Kansas City upsets the high-octane Saints.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Kansas City
Houston (+8.0) @ Indianapolis (-8.0)
Houston had a miserable game last week against Baltimore, but that will happen sometimes when you face a tough defensive team. Indianapolis isn't quite that. Houston tends to play Indy tough more often then not, and they have the passing attack to keep up with them. After the last meeting between these two teams ended in a miraculous Indianapolis comeback, Houston should know two things; not to be stupid, and that if they play well for 60 minutes they can beat these guys. I don't think they will this Sunday, but I do think 8 points is way too many to pass up on.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
Detroit (+14.0) @ Carolina (-14.0)
Carolina's offense isn't explosive enough to keep giving up these double digit point spreads, but I have to bite again this week. Carolina's defense is stingy and should prove to be very difficult for Detroit to score on, especially IN Carolina. And the Panthers offense should bounce back after a poor showing in Oakland; Detroit's defense will be much easier to handle. I'll give up the whopping 2 TDs and expect the Carolina blowout.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina
Philadelphia (-9.0) @ Cincinnati (+9.0)
Really no need for a long write-up here. Yes, Cinci is coming off of a win, but they still don't have the talent to hand with a team like Philadelphia with Palmer out. In need of wins and stuck in one of the NFL's toughest divisions, Philadelphia will not take games like this one lightly; they will be focused and they should be able to win this game comfortably.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
Chicago (+3.5) @ Green Bay (-3.5)
Chicago is a tough team to crack, but there are a few concerning issues for them right now; Rex Grossman is not a good quarterback, and they can't seem to defend against the pass. Very worrisome, considering Green Bay does a pretty good job defending against the pass and they have a very strong passing attack themselves. That extra little .5 scares me a bit, but I like the Packers to cover at home here in a game they match up in well.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay
Arizona (-3.0) @ Seattle (+3.0)
I promised myself I wouldn't over-think things this week, and that I wouldn't try to outsmart the public and the bookies and all that and just try to cap games. But COME ON, if this isn't a philosophy pick that smacks you in the face with a philosophy bat, what is? Seattle plus only 3?!? I know that Hasselbeck is coming back, but they weren't exactly lighting up the scoreboard before he got injured. 6 - 3 Arizona VS. 2 - 7 Seattle. The league's highest ranked offense in total scoring VS. the league's 25th ranked defense in points given up. The league's 2nd best passing attack (and that includes games Boldin was out, mind you!) VS the league's 2nd WORST (31st ranked) passing defense? +3.0?!?! Shouldn't Seattle be getting double digits here? 90% of bettors are on Arizona and the line hasn't moved! Bookmakers have been missing on these over the last few weeks and I doubt they'd set another trap if they weren't sure about it. Doesn't get much more clear cut "looks too easy" than this!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Seattle
St. Louis (+6.5) @ San Francisco (-6.5)
"Too many points" seems to be the mantra of this Dime, but it again rings true here. Yes, the Rams got shellacked by the Jets last week in embarrassing fashion. But the Jets are a good team. So are their last two losses, Arizona and New England. I see two bad football teams that aren't that far apart from eachother. These games tend to stay close anyway; 5 of the last 6 meeting between these two teams has been decided by 4 points or less. Singletary gets his first coaching win this week, but not in comfortable fashion.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco
Tennessee (-2.5) @ Jacksonville (+2.5)
Well, you saw how well picking against Tennessee did me last week. This team is the best team in the NFL, they are undefeated, and now Jacksonville is supposed to beat them? Why? Because they blew out a pathetic Detroit team? Jacksonville has been inconsistent and bad all year long, but they are only a 2.5 point underdog to the best team in the league? This may be a trap, but I'm beginning to think it isn't a trap; it is the public's unwillingness to accept that this Titans team is for real, and that "they are due for a loss" isn't a valid reason to pick against them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee
San Diego (+5.5) @ Pittsburgh (-5.5)
Teams often live and die by their quarterback, and Big Ben blew the game last week against Indy. He was visibly torn up over it, and when a quarterback starts getting in their own head too much, it is usually a recipe for disaster. I find it hard to believe he will miraculously be mistake free this week, even against a bad San Diego pass defense. I also think Pittsburgh will run a simpler playbook with more runs to try and build up Ben's confidence again. As such, I think underachieving San Diego is the right side here with 5.5 points. It should be a close game and I even think Pittsburgh will prevail, but it will be by around a field goal.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
Dallas (-1.0) @ Washington (+1.0)
I really hate to jump on the TONY ROMO WILL FIX EVERYTHING bandwagon, especially considering the fact that he doesn't play defense, a unit that has given up 30+ in 3 of their last 4 games. Sure, you could argue they've been on the field too much thanks to the hapless offense, but that still doesn't excuse that many points given up. But can you really take Washington here? They've been asleep for an entire month now, losing to St. Louis, barely getting by Cleveland and Detroit, and getting smashed by the Steelers. Dallas needs a win bad, they've already lost to hated Washington once this season, and they get their leader back which should be a huge boost to the entire locker room. Have to take the Cowboys here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas
MONDAY
Cleveland (+5.0) @ Buffalo (-5.0)
Cleveland just can't seem to get things straight. When their offense was dead, their defense was alive and well. Now the offense starts clicking and the defense forgets how to play. Hard to endorse an inconsistent team like this. Baltimore and Denver have strong offenses this season though, something you can't say about the Bills lately. Edwards has looked terrible and this is another team that is tough to endorse the way they've been playing of late. As if the 5 points aren't enough, this happens to qualify as a philosophy pick; Buffalo is coming off of three straight division rivalry games and is now favored in this game. Leaving it all out on the field against all of your rivals for three disheartening losses, and now you want me to give away 5 points, too? No thanks.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Cleveland
