Miami (OH) +3.5

tto827 · 11-01-12, 01:39 PM

That almost seems to good to be true, buffalo is atrocious, and should not be favored to beat the local pee-wee football team.

mrsolodolo21 · 11-01-12, 02:29 PM

I probably will stay away from this game, but I'll play devil's advocate here:

1) Miami Ohio is in a letdown spot after upsetting a ranked Ohio team last week.
2) Buffalo got their star, NFL-caliber RB, Oliver, back from injury last week and he went over 100 yards rushing.
3) Miami OH defense ranks #118 in rushing yards per game, #117 in yards per carry allowed. Buffalo hangs their hat on their rushing game.
4) Despite the public being all over MiamiOH, the spread has actually gone up from opening Buffalo -3 to Buffalo -3.5. "Sharp" money appears to be on the Bulls.
5) Most ppl thought Toledo -8 against Buffalo last week was a gift. Buffalo covered in a 20-25 loss.
6) The game is at Buffalo, which isn't the best home field advantage, but it is a "sleepy" type atmosphere than can catch a lot of teams off guard.

CDMKMP · 11-01-12, 02:41 PM

Originally posted by mrsolodolo21

I probably will stay away from this game, but I'll play devil's advocate here:

1) Miami Ohio is in a letdown spot after upsetting a ranked Ohio team last week.
2) Buffalo got their star, NFL-caliber RB, Oliver, back from injury last week and he went over 100 yards rushing.
3) Miami OH defense ranks #118 in rushing yards per game, #117 in yards per carry allowed. Buffalo hangs their hat on their rushing game.
4) Despite the public being all over MiamiOH, the spread has actually gone up from opening Buffalo -3 to Buffalo -3.5. "Sharp" money appears to be on the Bulls.
5) Most ppl thought Toledo -8 against Buffalo last week was a gift. Buffalo covered in a 20-25 loss.
6) The game is at Buffalo, which isn't the best home field advantage, but it is a "sleepy" type atmosphere than can catch a lot of teams off guard.

Good insight, thanks for posting your thoughts on that.

mynameismud · 11-01-12, 03:05 PM

very solid points solodolo. i agree with several of them, but i have capped this game a few times and i have redhawks winning by 4 or 5. the +3.5 definitely gives me some room for error. glgl this weekend.

billysink · 11-01-12, 03:07 PM

There is a huge disparity in strength of schedule here and about as big a difference in defensive capability. Miami beat one of the most over rated teams in NCAA history last week. Ohio had absolutely no business being ranked at all.

I made mention in a thread a few weeks ago that Buffalo was worth a long look at home for a few weeks after having to play three successive road games, against a very tough D @ UConn, manhandling Ohio @ Ohio but losing that game as Ohio worked with a short field all day due to a couple of Buffalo fumbles and the kicking game, and against N.Illinois who is a legitimate top 25 team.

They came home tired and played well enough to win against Pitt easily winning the statisticals and time of possession but running out of gas late. They covered at home against a very good Toledo team on a late touchdown.

This is a classic case of folks looking at a 1-7 team and not knowing what they really have. As mentioned by MrSolo above, this Buffalo team can run on just about anyone. They ran for 200 yards on Georgia in a loss @ Georgia earlier this year. They seem to have an issue with turnovers against better competition. Miami of Ohio is not a team that forces or capitalizes on turnovers. Nor can they run the ball much at all.

Buffalo can easily control the clock here and are much the better defensive team having faced much better. I flagged the opener @ -3 one of the top 5 plays on the board this week and bought it significantly late Sunday night. The line has since moved to -3.5 on a fairly even consensus.

Good luck everyone with whatever way you see it. I just cannot find a reason to side with Miami here.

HoulihansTX · 11-01-12, 06:44 PM

Both teams are horrific, no strong picks on either side.

Surebet · 11-01-12, 07:20 PM

looking good here; Miami is holding them... Following this with live still can get them moneyline 1.48.

mynameismud · 11-01-12, 07:23 PM

Originally posted by Surebet

looking good here; Miami is holding them... Following this with live still can get them moneyline 1.48.

completely wrong game guy.

Surebet · 11-01-12, 07:26 PM

Originally posted by mynameismud

completely wrong game guy.

sure the heck is... I apologize!

KKoz9 · 11-02-12, 02:54 PM

Originally posted by mrsolodolo21

I probably will stay away from this game, but I'll play devil's advocate here:

1) Miami Ohio is in a letdown spot after upsetting a ranked Ohio team last week.
2) Buffalo got their star, NFL-caliber RB, Oliver, back from injury last week and he went over 100 yards rushing.
3) Miami OH defense ranks #118 in rushing yards per game, #117 in yards per carry allowed. Buffalo hangs their hat on their rushing game.
4) Despite the public being all over MiamiOH, the spread has actually gone up from opening Buffalo -3 to Buffalo -3.5. "Sharp" money appears to be on the Bulls.
5) Most ppl thought Toledo -8 against Buffalo last week was a gift. Buffalo covered in a 20-25 loss.
6) The game is at Buffalo, which isn't the best home field advantage, but it is a "sleepy" type atmosphere than can catch a lot of teams off guard.

I guess I can understand your points of reasoning but you're just over-thinking this one.

Miami covers this easily. Miami is better in all phases of the game and Dysert is a pretty good college QB with experience. Miami has lost to Ohio State, Boise St, Cincinnati, and Bowling Green (6-3, 4-1 MAC), ALL on the road. They beat undefeated and ranked Ohio at home. "But this week they're on the road again" ...does Buffalo come anywhere close to the level of any of those teams? Not a chance.

Buffalo is in the bottom 5 teams in FBS. Their only win was against a sub .500 FCS team, Morgan State, at home, and they still gave up 34 points. Last week they played their closest game of the season with a 5 point loss to Toledo. Their only two touchdowns last week against Toledo were a pick-6 gift and another short drive setup by an INT. Their NFL caliber RB? only got just over 100 yards because he had 24 carries which averaged just over 4 YPC against the defensive juggernaut of Toledo...and they were at home. They hang their hat on the rushing game because they have no choice, their QB/passing game is atrocious.

If it were Miami -3.5 I may consider taking Buffalo, but as it is, this is a gift.

Pound it.

mynameismud · 11-03-12, 11:50 AM

i have a bad feeling about this game.

BlitzTheBooks · 11-03-12, 12:01 PM

On MIA as well. BOL.

neverstoppers23 · 11-03-12, 12:22 PM

i am on mia too. i was thinking about playing the under, but didn't do it. kinda a zzz game.

mynameismud · 11-03-12, 12:42 PM

fukk

BlitzTheBooks · 11-03-12, 01:49 PM

INT that leads to a bobbled FG snap for a 1st Down that leads to a TD. Unreal series of events

. Ideally, like to see MIA get a TD and attempt a 2-pt conversion and fail.

mynameismud · 11-03-12, 01:59 PM

ot boys.

Bbfromgpt · 11-03-12, 02:00 PM

Shoulda went for 2

mynameismud · 11-03-12, 02:03 PM

bink. won by the hook.

CupWanted · 11-03-12, 02:04 PM

That was a crazy 4th quarter. Had +3. That botched FG where they picked up the 1st down was an absolute killer.

mynameismud · 11-03-12, 02:04 PM

cant believe i cashed! 4-2 in posted plays.