BetFair NFL Markets

hels · 10-26-12, 12:58 PM

Betair is an ideal NFL market. I use them and am never disappointed with making bets before the game.

I don't make 1q/1h plays very often (if at all) but ML/PS/OU will always give you the best odds possible. Yes you do have to pay 5% commission on winners but you do get players points and can get commission down to 3% (mine averages around 3.5%) -- this depends on the amount you bet each week. I probably bet between 5-10k/week.

you will get -101 spreads before the game. The best option is to lay bets and get the house odds. The odds typically reflect Pinny and if you watch the Pinny line changes you can buy and then sell to be green either way.

For example last nights game had about 120k of action at +6.5/-6.5 and 110k at +5.5/-6.5. OU 42.5 had about 35k of action (these numbers are all before the game)

During the game you can sometimes lay odds in PS/OU but it's very infrequent to be able to find any value backing bets in PS/OU. ML is usually the only liquid market during play. Low key Sunday afternoon games are unlikely to have any liquidity in ML.

Monte · 10-26-12, 01:02 PM

Originally posted by hels

Betair is an ideal NFL market. I use them and am never disappointed with making bets before the game.

I don't make 1q/1h plays very often (if at all) but ML/PS/OU will always give you the best odds possible. Yes you do have to pay 5% commission on winners but you do get players points and can get commission down to 3% (mine averages around 3.5%) -- this depends on the amount you bet each week. I probably bet between 5-10k/week.

you will get -101 spreads before the game. The best option is to lay bets and get the house odds. The odds typically reflect Pinny and if you watch the Pinny line changes you can buy and then sell to be green either way.

For example last nights game had about 120k of action at +6.5/-6.5 and 110k at +5.5/-6.5. OU 42.5 had about 35k of action (these numbers are all before the game)

During the game you can sometimes lay odds in PS/OU but it's very infrequent to be able to find any value backing bets in PS/OU. ML is usually the only liquid market during play. Low key Sunday afternoon games are unlikely to have any liquidity in ML.

Are you crazy? Betfair can't have better NFL lines than MB before game time, if you pay that much commission.
People taunting shitty BF for no reason, you can get your 1-2c spreads at MB easily on big markets like the NFL.

hels · 10-26-12, 01:25 PM

Originally posted by Monte

Are you crazy? Betfair can't have better NFL lines than MB before game time, if you pay that much commission.
People taunting shitty BF for no reason, you can get your 1-2c spreads at MB easily on big markets like the NFL.

I said they will give you the best odds possible (that is the truth).

I also said the commission they take.

Odds and Commission are 2 separate entities.

Any dumwit who can add 2+2 is able to figure that out.

gregm · 10-26-12, 01:37 PM

Originally posted by cincy

Does BetFair have actice/liquid NFL markets like Matchbook or are BetFair NFL markets more like Betmaker which are not very active. For example, Matchbook NFL pointspread markets are pretty active near gametime and might have -101 both sides but Betmaker might have -107 both sides.

I also heard BetFair charges a 5% commission so even if they have liquid NFL markets, is BetFair a useful out to have for NFL betting?

Are you talking about pregame or live wagering? Pinny is still the best option for pregame wagering once you add up all the fees with betfair. I dont know about the volume on alot of exchanges for live wagering on American sports, I wasnt impressed with the few I have seen but betfair does have good volume, just keep track of all these fees (premium charges,etc) and make sure it is worth it in the long run. I have been pretty impressed with matchbooks liquidity on a few sports lately, I will probably be using them for tennis next year if they still have this type of volume but its pretty erratic at times.

cincy · 10-26-12, 02:23 PM

I don't do much live wagering but like to bet all week before the games but I image betfair won't have liquid markets until gameday for NFL.

Does BetFair's commissin only apply to winners so is the 5% commission basically the same as getting -105 lines.

Does BetFair have a lower commission if I place an offer and someone accepts my offer rather than just accepting the offer myself. For example, if I place an offer at +100 and someone accepts it will I still pay 5% commission on winnings? I recall Matchbook actually used to pay me a commission when I placed an offer that someone accepted because Matchbook wanted people to be market makers and place offers.

Monte · 10-26-12, 02:27 PM

Originally posted by hels

Odds and Commission are 2 separate entities.

No it's not smartass, with 4% for example -101-101 means -103 -103.
And MB beats that, so much for your best odds on BF.

Monte · 10-26-12, 02:28 PM

Originally posted by gregm

Are you talking about pregame or live wagering? Pinny is still the best option for pregame wagering once you add up all the fees with betfair..

NO Matchbook is shortly before the game, and i will not stop saying that for a while so every dummy realizes it and forgets BF.

sharlataans · 10-26-12, 04:57 PM

Gotta take BF premium charge into account as well. It's HUGE!

cincy · 10-26-12, 05:45 PM

yeah I realize that Matchbook's lower commission makes Matchbook better. But my question was "is BetFair a useful out". I like having multiple books and I sometimes like to bet early in the week so it is possible Matchbook might not have a good offer on the team I like and BetFair would. If betFair has decent liquidity then I think it might be useful to have both Matchbook and BetFair. Although I realize that Matchbook would get most of my bets because Matchbook would have better overall value.

byronbb · 10-26-12, 10:48 PM

Should be interesting this weekend with Pats and Rams playing in the UK. Have a look then. Anyone got some software I can use to look at market depth?? GeeksToy was awesome but they went pay and I don't actually bet a BF I just liked to look at market depth sometimes.

allin1 · 10-27-12, 03:21 AM

cincy have you checked betdaq's nfl markets?

diondublin · 10-27-12, 01:32 PM

[QUOTE=gregm;16531400]Are you talking about pregame or live wagering? Pinny is still the best option for pregame wagering once you add up all the fees with betfair.

What about Matchbook?

cincy · 10-27-12, 06:25 PM

Does betdaq also have 5% commissions? How is betdaq different than betfair?

I also don't understand the back/lay prices on betdaq. BetDaq seems to have 2 back lines and 2 lay lines for a market. But matchbook would just have 2 lines. For example, the BetDaq moneyline for SEA/DET has back lines of Det-132, SEA+125 and Lay lines of DET-126, SEA+134. But Matchbook just has 2 lines of DET-133, SEA+126. You can only bet DET or SEA to win so I don't understand why BetDaq has 4 lines. Can someone explain this?

allin1 · 10-28-12, 03:53 AM

Originally posted by cincy

Does betdaq also have 5% commissions? How is betdaq different than betfair?

I also don't understand the back/lay prices on betdaq. BetDaq seems to have 2 back lines and 2 lay lines for a market. But matchbook would just have 2 lines. For example, the BetDaq moneyline for SEA/DET has back lines of Det-132, SEA+125 and Lay lines of DET-126, SEA+134. But Matchbook just has 2 lines of DET-133, SEA+126. You can only bet DET or SEA to win so I don't understand why BetDaq has 4 lines. Can someone explain this?

I have a 3% commission at betdaq. I don't know how they charge new customers though. My guess is that it is the same.

regarding back and lay lines you can go to settings at bedaq and customize how you want it to be, how much you want to see.

cincy · 11-01-12, 04:23 PM

allin1, Are your 3% betdaq commissions permanent. Betdaq told me they have a promo for new customers but it is 3% commissins for 2012 only. Betdaq's website says their normal commissions are 5% with discunts based on volume

allin1 · 11-01-12, 06:12 PM

Originally posted by cincy

allin1, Are your 3% betdaq commissions permanent. Betdaq told me they have a promo for new customers but it is 3% commissins for 2012 only. Betdaq's website says their normal commissions are 5% with discunts based on volume

I don't know exactly if it's just for 2012 but my guess is that it is permanent. It probably has to do with when and how I opened the account.