Gamecocks or Tigers??

[itchypickle]

Here's a good idea, let's take the advice of the guy with an Alabama avatar!

Georgia was the most overrated team in the country by far, decent win for SC at home, but they aren't 1/8 of what LSU is. LSU just doesn't lose this type of game. Fans are pissed, teams pissed, they're coming out with some serious fire Saturday night, idc if Miles decides to play QB himself.

My Bama bias doesn't influence my wagering pal. I almost never bet the Bama games until Atlanta or BCS dates for that vary reason.

But I do follow the West like a hawk, helped me pick the Gators and the Razorbacks last weekend and in the past served me well.

I also notice the character of teams and this 2012 LSU squad reminds me of the 2010 Bama one....coming off the strong year they fall flat and have a few let down games along the way...no winning identity. I might be wrong....but I still five the edge to the 'Cocks with the points in a close one but chose to just put the $$ on the Under and sit back and enjoy a great conference game Sat night.

[utmoody10]

CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	LNG	TD	INT
7	11	67	63.6	20	0	1
15	18	148	83.3	37	2	0
20	28	155	71.4	19	1	2
10	18	87	55.6	23	1	1
16	25	128	64	23	0	1
4	8	70	50	21	0	2

These are Connor Shaw's stats in SEC road games. Shaw will always be a dink and dunk passer who has the ability to beat you with his feet. I believe the recipe for success for South Carolina will be similar to what Florida was able to do. Press the running game with Lattimore and play solid defense. LSU has been allowing way to much pressure on Mettenberger and Clowney/Taylor can take advantage of this. Many angles to take on this game. Have to wonder how many times South Carolina can get up for big games as they are in the middle of the toughest part of their schedule.

[Smutbucket]

ya in most of those games hes had almost 100 yards on the ground rushing too.....SC defense is good enough to win with those type-a numbers.....

why are we only using sec ROAD games by the way? what about his home games against sec like missou where he went 20-21, 249 yards and 2 TDs (50 yards on ground), passer rating 226, and against georgia he went 6-10, 162 yards, 2 passing TDs, passer rating 262, 78 rushing yards and a rushing TD.....

again, Grant Enders and towson were able to move the ball against this LSU defense, you really just attribute this to LSU laziness? what makes you think LSU def, will shut down this south carolina offense completely? nothing, at all in my opinion, alright ive pretty much said all I have to say about this game, I appreciate everyone discussion

[Jeff Grant]

Definitely one of the better games to handicap - discussed it at length in a SBR Forum video

[utmoody10]

ya in most of those games hes had almost 100 yards on the ground rushing too.....SC defense is good enough to win with those type-a numbers.....

why are we only using sec ROAD games by the way? what about his home games against sec like missou where he went 20-21, 249 yards and 2 TDs (50 yards on ground), passer rating 226, and against georgia he went 6-10, 162 yards, 2 passing TDs, passer rating 262, 78 rushing yards and a rushing TD.....

again, Grant Enders and towson were able to move the ball against this LSU defense, you really just attribute this to LSU laziness? what makes you think LSU def, will shut down this south carolina offense completely? nothing, at all in my opinion, alright ive pretty much said all I have to say about this game, I appreciate everyone discussion

Much can be said about a QB due to how he performs in a tough road environment. Those stats were placed there to show in similar scenarios to what he will be faced with this weekend, he has had mixed results. You are correct in stating that he accumulated a good amount of rush yards to counter some of the lackluster passing numbers. I just don't see this game coming down to quarterback play winning the game, although one can certainly lose it for their team. I expect a low scoring affair where turnovers and whomever wins in the trenches controlling the game. Best of luck on siding with the Gamecocks, I wont be wagering on this game but will keep it within view while I get frustrated watching the Vols Saturday night.

[Smutbucket]

Much can be said about a QB due to how he performs in a tough road environment. Those stats were placed there to show in similar scenarios to what he will be faced with this weekend, he has had mixed results. You are correct in stating that he accumulated a good amount of rush yards to counter some of the lackluster passing numbers. I just don't see this game coming down to quarterback play winning the game, although one can certainly lose it for their team. I expect a low scoring affair where turnovers and whomever wins in the trenches controlling the game. Best of luck on siding with the Gamecocks, I wont be wagering on this game but will keep it within view while I get frustrated watching the Vols Saturday night.

these stats that have "noticed trends" on QBs underperforming in "tough road enviornments" seperate/anaylze how those road game performances differ from freshman QBs and Seniors? Im sure freshman QBs struggle on the road a lot more than junior and senior QBs with a lot of starting expierence.....just saying.....

[qsilver335]

It is tough to win on the road in the SEC. I am going with LSU here.

[suicidekings]

True..
This is not last years LSU team,but Fla. might be the second best team in the conference,and I'm not sure Cocks can beat the Gators either.

Agreed. The Gators will likely flatten the Gamecocks next week, especially if SC can win against LSU. Either way, Florida is a better squad though.

[CBASS]

This is for those who actually value trends that matter:


Coach Les Miles is 17-1 following a loss.

He is 6-0 following a road loss.

[Pivotpoint]

I Like the Cocks here. These trends jumped out at me.

Cocks hottest team in FBS ~ 10 game win streak.

ATS runs Cocks 5-0 ~ Tigers 0-3

rooster QB Connor Shaw has won 13 of his 14 starts at SC.

Tigers 2-7 ATS as home favorite of 10 or less

Tigers 6-17 ATS as SEC home favs

Aware of Tiger impressive 21 game home win streak, but Tiger fans have to be concerned about the streak with Mettenberger.

Both teams play great D. We'll see what happens, but I my money feels a hell of a lot safer on Shaw and Lattimore then Mattenberger and whoever carries the rock for LSU. Spurrier has the weapons and will come with a solid plan to probe holes in LSU D. The Mad Hatter has to hope one of his RB's goes off and Mattenberger doesn't hurt him. Gurley and Marshall are good looking backs for Dawgs and they had no success against rooster Run D with under 78 yds combined. Tigers only 8 first downs last week.

[MoneyLineDawg]

Agreed. The Gators will likely flatten the Gamecocks next week, especially if SC can win against LSU. Either way, Florida is a better squad though.

Thats a good joke.....Florida flatten SC?? Good luck with that....

[CBASS]

I Like the Cocks here. These trends jumped out at me.

Cocks hottest team in FBS ~ 10 game win streak.

ATS runs Cocks 5-0 ~ Tigers 0-3

rooster QB Connor Shaw has won 13 of his 14 starts at SC.

Tigers 2-7 ATS as home favorite of 10 or less

Tigers 6-17 ATS as SEC home favs

Aware of Tiger impressive 21 game home win streak, but Tiger fans have to be concerned about the streak with Mettenberger.

Both teams play great D. We'll see what happens, but I my money feels a hell of a lot safer on Shaw and Lattimore then Mattenberger and whoever carries the rock for LSU. Spurrier has the weapons and will come with a solid plan to probe holes in LSU D. The Mad Hatter has to hope one of his RB's goes off and Mattenberger doesn't hurt him. Gurley and Marshall are good looking backs for Dawgs and they had no success against rooster Run D with under 78 yds combined. Tigers only 8 first downs last week.

Good post. Mettenburger is not the problem. Did you know that the receivers had 23 drops in 6 games? Hardly the qb's fault..

[CBASS]

That one trend I posted trumps all the rest Pivotpoint...

[MoneyLineDawg]

Good post. Mettenburger is not the problem. Did you know that the receivers had 23 drops in 6 games? Hardly the qb's fault..

LSU's Passing game as a whole (actually offense in general) will not do much at all......I know Georgia walked into a buzz saw, but look how badly their superior offense struggled to do anything

LSU will be down possibly 3 starters on the offensive line against one of, if not the best DL's in the country

LSU can Definitley win the game, but it will have to come from big plays on defense and special teams as well as a little boost from the home crowd

The biggest mismatch in this game is easily SC's Defense over LSU's offense though, not sure how this can be argued

[Smutbucket]

I Like the Cocks here. These trends jumped out at me.

Cocks hottest team in FBS ~ 10 game win streak.

ATS runs Cocks 5-0 ~ Tigers 0-3

rooster QB Connor Shaw has won 13 of his 14 starts at SC.

Tigers 2-7 ATS as home favorite of 10 or less

Tigers 6-17 ATS as SEC home favs

Aware of Tiger impressive 21 game home win streak, but Tiger fans have to be concerned about the streak with Mettenberger.

Both teams play great D. We'll see what happens, but I my money feels a hell of a lot safer on Shaw and Lattimore then Mattenberger and whoever carries the rock for LSU. Spurrier has the weapons and will come with a solid plan to probe holes in LSU D. The Mad Hatter has to hope one of his RB's goes off and Mattenberger doesn't hurt him. Gurley and Marshall are good looking backs for Dawgs and they had no success against rooster Run D with under 78 yds combined. Tigers only 8 first downs last week.

awesome trends. in my opinion these trends hold a lot more value that Les Miles's superb record after a loss, I mean for a while he had some AWESOME TEAMs that shouldnt have lost multiple games in a row, if you look at the competition following those losses, and really look into the numbers, Im sure you will see LSU had the better team in those instances....

the trends you present hold more value in my opinion too, because I believe the public continues to pound LSU without knowing these trends, Vegas is SHARP, but they care more about MONEY than being SHARP with their lines, so if VEGAS notices a TREND (which only they can see they have all the real public % numbers/amount of money on each side) They will continue to EXPLOIT these TRENDS regardless if they are accurate or not. Im sure in the (6-17 ATS as Home Fav games) LSU was BET ON MORE, than their opponents, and VEGAS made a killing, (maybe b/c the public knows all about the "AWESOME HOME FIELD RECORD" and "HOW LOUD THAT STADIUM IS!") so vegas continues to OVER VALUE them in order to win ATS. just my speculation,

[CBASS]

LSU's Passing game as a whole (actually offense in general) will not do much at all......I know Georgia walked into a buzz saw, but look how badly their superior offense struggled to do anything

LSU will be down possibly 3 starters on the offensive line against one of, if not the best DL's in the country

LSU can Definitley win the game, but it will have to come from big plays on defense and special teams as well as a little boost from the home crowd

The biggest mismatch in this game is easily SC's Defense over LSU's offense though, not sure how this can be argued

LSU will only be out 1 offensive lineman and he hasn't been playing the last 3 games anyway.
I agree with LSU's defense and special teams needing to play big. I also agree with them needing a boost from the home crowd, but that is a given.
SC's defense is NOT as big a mismatch as you may think. It will come down to the playcalling, because LSU does have good skill players on offense.

[CBASS]

Smut, don't weasel away from here when LSU covers that spread buddy.

[MoneyLineDawg]

LSU will only be out 1 offensive lineman and he hasn't been playing the last 3 games anyway.
I agree with LSU's defense and special teams needing to play big. I also agree with them needing a boost from the home crowd, but that is a given.
SC's defense is NOT as big a mismatch as you may think. It will come down to the playcalling, because LSU does have good skill players on offense.

One of their guards suffered a head injury against Florida, and an offensive tackle Alex Hurst is dinged up and dealing with personal issues, also questionable

I know LSU has weapons on offense, but as a unit I trust SC on defense to just about dominate LSU's offense.....All comes down to LSU dominating on D as well and just making one more play than SC

[CBASS]

One of their guards suffered a head injury against Florida, and an offensive tackle Alex Hurst is dinged up and dealing with personal issues, also questionable

I know LSU has weapons on offense, but as a unit I trust SC on defense to just about dominate LSU's offense.....All comes down to LSU dominating on D as well and just making one more play than SC

Both linemen are projected to start per 10/10 3:00 p.m. press conference.
I don't disagree with your assessment MLD...it's actually refreshing to hear someone who actually knows both of these teams well.

[Smutbucket]

haha ya right CBASS, its just one game anyways, Im gonna add to my card, check out my card in my thread, I got a buncha other games I like too...

not to mention their best LB, Minter, broke his ankle in UF game

[CBASS]

haha ya right CBASS, its just one game anyways, Im gonna add to my card, check out my card in my thread, I got a buncha other games I like too...

not to mention their best LB, Minter, broke his ankle in UF game

True enough. I'll have to check it out....you just haven't been pumping the others like you have the cocks (no pun intended).

You're full of sh!t 'bout Minter, because he returned after getting IV's for dehydration... Why isn't he listed on the injury report then? Lmao

[Smutbucket]

oh shit my bad...lol.....

I was reading this article and misread it.....its actually Kwon Alexander who broke his ankle.....they started off talking about Minter and then end of article it says "Unfortunately, he's lost for the remainder of the season after breaking his ankle in this contest." but it was talking about Kwon, my bad

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1359502-lsu-football-winners-and-losers-from-the-week-6-game-vs-florida/page/3

[CBASS]

oh shit my bad...lol.....

I was reading this article and misread it.....its actually Kwon Alexander who broke his ankle.....they started off talking about Minter and then end of article it says "Unfortunately, he's lost for the remainder of the season after breaking his ankle in this contest." but it was talking about Kwon, my bad

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...florida/page/3

No worries...I'm sure they have another guy ready to step in the gap. That was a good read though, especially the comments at the bottom! LOL!!

[suicidekings]

Thats a good joke.....Florida flatten SC?? Good luck with that....

Don't bet against it, mark my words.

[Smutbucket]

True enough. I'll have to check it out....you just haven't been pumping the others like you have the cocks (no pun intended).

You're full of sh!t 'bout Minter, because he returned after getting IV's for dehydration... Why isn't he listed on the injury report then? Lmao

im only trying to respond to all this LSU hype, theres a reason why I didnt put it on my card yet, wasnt my favorite early in week, but more and more I looked into it, more I liked them....Its just gonna be a 1 unit bet for me,

one my favs this week is syracuse +7.5, also sprinkle some on the ML at +240, they should win outright

[Pivotpoint]

That one trend I posted trumps all the rest Pivotpoint...

Hah! How many years you have to go back for that and where are those players now?

If we go back in time, Miles doesn't fare well when he plays teams with a better record, SU or ATS.

I always put a higher value on trends that have been achieved by the actual players that will be on the field in the game in question. I'll repeat them again.

Cocks hottest team in FBS ~ 10 game win streak.

ATS runs Cocks 5-0 ~ Tigers 0-3

rooster QB Connor Shaw has won 13 of his 14 starts at SC.

The players that have achieved these numbers will be on the field Sat night.

Yeah, maybe LSU dropped a bunch of passes. How many were high, low and behind them? Whatever. A good QB has good numbers, period. Shaw is a dual threat, Mattenberger doesn't scare anyone. LSU defense misses the badger, Cocks D better than last year.

[sharkbite8]

Turn back the clocks....11/5/2011

While the Gamecocks are not Alabama, this game has all the makings of a similar defensive match up. LSU went into Alabama, and came out with the win.

It will be an interesting game....

[dfish]

this is what Im trying to figure out myself....wondering If I should take SC now or wait .....really have no clue myself....honestly I think maybe move in favor of SC so Im trying to be patient

sitting @2.5

Pulling the trigger on LSU

[Big Bear]

i will leave you guys with this ...


South Carolina has played 2 road games this season. They have struggled in both. LSU has won 21 straight home games.

South Carolina coming off a huge win, LSU coming home a horrible road loss. Enter a over confident USC team to play one pissed off LSU team at 7pm local in front of 90,000 fans

LSU -3

have a great day fellas

[dfish]

i will leave you guys with this ...


South Carolina has played 2 road games this season. They have struggled in both. LSU has won 21 straight home games.

South Carolina coming off a huge win, LSU coming home a horrible road loss. Enter a over confident USC team to play one pissed off LSU team at 7pm local in front of 90,000 fans

LSU -3

have a great day fellas

Pretty much slums up my angle
lets hope Les opens up the play book lol

[ntieu22]

Rocking my cocks tongiht!

[Smutbucket]

i will leave you guys with this ...


South Carolina has played 2 road games this season. They have struggled in both. LSU has won 21 straight home games.

South Carolina coming off a huge win, LSU coming home a horrible road loss. Enter a over confident USC team to play one pissed off LSU team at 7pm local in front of 90,000 fans

LSU -3

have a great day fellas

I counter with this

South Carolina struggled in their first game against a good vandy team. They didnt "struggle" against kentucky, they came out flat footed but dominated thruout the game, LSU actually STRUGGLED with AUBURN and TOWSON, and put up 6 pts on the Gators. THIS LSU team won 4 home games, that were North Texas, Washington, Idaho and Towson.

South Carolina just got done beating the sh%# out of georgia. LSU just got done getting the sh$# beat out of them at florida, every 5 plays there was a player hobbling to the sideline if they werent lying flat on their back. Were gonna be judges on their confidence levels too now? try not to let complete guesses factor into my handicapping.

South Caronlina +3

best of luck all

[Grits n' Gravy]

LSU

[iFrat]

Again goes back to the play-calling, I want to see Mett air it out. I am very surprised to see Sagarin has South Carolina as the second ranked team in the country right now and four points better than LSU on neutral. But that is all stat based though so does not factor in shitty play-calling holding LSU back. Les HAS to open up the offense, I just hope he is not too stubborn to do so.

I think this is LSU #1 problem. Everyone wants LSU to "air it out" now that they have a "Big Time Qb". Problem is Mett is basically an unproven rookie Qb playing in THE hardest division in college football. And he's Surrounded by a HIGHLY under performing rec core.

LSU was built on its run game and dominant DEF./ST. That's how they went 13-0 last year. For some reason they have gotten away from the RUN FIRST to setup play action pass because of this Savior mentality of Mett.

On top of the injury plaqued o-line, I dont see how they win this game without winning it on ST/turnovers and rely on DEF to keep them in the game. I see Clowney having a HUGE day, because of this. Which is going to force LSU to get the ball out quick when they do pass.

They have yet to put an entire game together all season. I didn't see them winning in FL and I don't see them winning here either.

[iFrat]

Forgot to mention the amount of PENILTIES LSU has racked up this year is embarrassing. This has stalled WAY to many drives this year and is another BIG factor on their off production. The play calling this year has been very bad as well. I wouldn't be surprised if Studrawa is looking for a new job if they loose more than 2 games.