George Costanza Strategy

[sitzlejd]

After this past weekend I had an epiphany and tonight I'm rolling out my George Costanza "do the opposite" strategy. I will go through the games and try to honestly cap the games. Then I will do the exact opposite of my instinct. To quote Jerry Seinfeld "If every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right."

All my instincts say that the Texans will win by 30, so tonight's play is Jets +10.

[The Giant]

I knew as soon as I read the title where this was going.

Good luck.

[CanuckG]

[eldoctord]

Offense HOUSTON > JETS
Defense HOUSTON> JETS
Special teams even
Home field JETS
OUTCOME: houston JETS of course

[Bostongambler]

I like ur thinking. If every pick u make loses then the opposite would have to be right. Fire away.

[keel44]

Actually, I use this theory for the NFL. Motivation is a BIG factor. Let down spots are a BIG factor. When the 2 meet up, and you can get a good line, then a play can be made. The Jets are the play here.

[coop]

Only problem is that it's going to be twice as frustrating when your "opposite picks" lose, because you're gonna be all "god damnit my real pick would have won, I fukkin knew it, I'm a genius"

[Louisvillekid1]

[darkhat]

lol i knew what this was gonna be when i opened it as well..

[A4K]

I think this will result in a 50% win rate.

[sitzlejd]

Costanza strategy 1-0.

Jets +10 over Texans.

[milwaukee mike]

It takes a smart man to know how dumb he is and therefore pick the opposite side

[Naz18]

So basically your fading yourself and that is not going to work....gamblers lose because of the juice....house always has the edge.

[Vikes1922]

this will be entertaining. Not sure how lucrative though

[JohnGalt2341]

I find this scene from that episode very inspiring:

[MexicanStallion]

At least you pulled a winner tonight regardless of how you came to it.

[bane]

I teased both sides. Hou -2, Jets +15, Jets Under 46. Worse than the Costanza strategy, it's more like ....Clueless.

They hit but, I'm certain there's a better way.

[Pete0]

OP keep us updated with your personal fades in this thread

[Joe D. 416]

Curious to see who George likes hursday night.

[sitzlejd]

OP keep us updated with your personal fades in this thread

Will do.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Sitzlejd -Gun to head.....who do you take tomorrow.....A's or Tigers?

[ssmann]

costanza method only way to beat NFL

[sitzlejd]

Sitzlejd -Gun to head.....who do you take tomorrow.....A's or Tigers?

Havent looked at it yet. I will this morning.

[SparJMU]

I can honestly tell you this isn't a terrible strategy. You will make more/lose less using this method than you will trying to pick the games using your own "expertise". Stay away from teasers and parlays and you might break even or profit slightly using this method.

[sitzlejd]

First instinct for As v Tigers. A's always seem to come back and get it going. Neither pitcher is particularly impressive. A's have home field advantage and backs against the wall. So my instinct would be A's win this one tonight. So Costanza strategy dictates that the play is Detroit. I'll play it just so I have some "skin in the game".

[JoshB]

BOL

[Housemoney]

The juice still gets you in the end

[sitzlejd]

Can you explain what you mean about the juice? You mean bc you bet 10 to win 9?

[wiseacre]

I got schooled on a cellular level this weekend. dont feel bad the "pros" at the Hilton went 1/4 overall.

[sitzlejd]

Costanza strategy 1-1

Tigers ML v A's (loss)

I have a feeling this strategy is going to do better in nfl than other sports, but we'll see.

[SparJMU]

Can you explain what you mean about the juice? You mean bc you bet 10 to win 9?

You have to win 52.4% of your bets to breakeven. A poster was telling you that you were going to be 50-50 no matter who you bet on, therefore you will be a loser thanks to juice.

[sitzlejd]

Costanza post for today: instinct was Nats so went with Cards and the over 7.5.

[odog11]

Don't think this will work if you just play a ton of games for action, pick your spots. Your instinct says "I am betting this because I want some action", hence, don't bet it. Kind of tricky, double reverse logic type stuff here.

[sitzlejd]

Haha, man youre getting deep. Next play is Reds over Giants ml. Instinct says leake will pitch poorly bc of the lack of prep, and giants will win. so Im betting on reds and under.

[sitzlejd]

Cards/OVER parlay came in. Costanza strategy is 2-1.

I guess I should list it by units now since some of these are parlays, so I'm up .73 units since starting this experiment.