Hey everyone... I'm in too bad of a mood to do a write up on my philosophy pick this week... it is Chicago over Tennessee. Mini-write up included here.
Here are my picks this week... you are probably better off fading them. I'm just posting them because some of you still appreciate my opinion, for whatever reason.
Good luck to all of you this week!
THURSDAY
Denver (+3.0) @ Cleveland (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Denver (Win)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Denver (Win)
SUNDAY
Tennessee (-3.0) @ Chicago (+3.0)
My magical philosophy picks finally let me down last week, making me take losses on two terrible teams that were very obviously overmatched. Frustrating as it may have been, I can't abandon what's gotten me here; the outside the box thinking on these picks has had quite a bit of success this season. So instead of playing with fear, I'll go back to the well this week. On one side we have an undefeated Tennessee Titans team that has a downright scary defense and running game, coming off of impressive back to back wins against Indianapolis and Green Bay. On the other side, we have a Chicago Bears team that certainly isn't a pushover, but is coming off of two very shaky wins against a mediocre Minnesota team and a downright terrible Lions team. Even more worrisome is Kyle Orton's injury, putting Rex Grossman back in the spotlight against the league's toughest defense. Why is Tennessee only giving up 3 points here? They are clearly the best team in the NFL, and they should manhandle Rex Grossman. This has trap game written all over it; strange spread, Tennessee faces hated rival Jacksonville next week (if you believe in looking ahead), and they've got to lose at some point; this just might be the week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Chicago
Jacksonville (-6.5) @ Detroit (+6.5)
This one is just simple logic. Detroit may still be winless, but they have strung together four straight respectable losses (by margins of 2, 7, 8, and 4) and the addition of Daunte Culpepper definitely shouldn't hurt. Jacksonville, meanwhile, has played 8 games this season, all decided by 7 points or less. Would I like to take Jacksonville to break out of their slump against a weak Detroit team? Yes, I would. But at some point, perhaps we have to accept that a slump that lasts half a season may not be a slump at all; it may just be what the team is.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
Seattle (+8.0) @ Miami (-8.0)
Something tells me a long write up isn't really necessary for me to explain why I like a surging pass happy Dolphins team at home over a reeling, injury-filled, pitiful-pass-defense Seahawks team on the road. Was that adequate enough?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami
Green Bay (+2.5) @ Minnesota (-2.5)
These games just annoy me to no end. You have Minnesota, who can run the ball well and can't defend against the pass, and Green Bay, who can pass the ball well and can't defend against the run. Feel free to ignore my pick and go flip a coin. I'll be taking the Packers, simply because in what should be a close game, I'd rather have my money on Aaron Rodgers than Gus Frerotte.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Green Bay
Baltimore @ Houston (Pick'em)
Houston's passing attack is formidable, but I believe Baltimore's defense will be able to slow it down a bit. And perhaps the bigger story is Baltimore's offense; lost in all of the media love for Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco is putting together a fantastic rookie season and has given the Ravens a vertical passing game that they have sorely lacked for years. Both teams will put up some points, but I think Baltimore comes out on top here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore
St. Louis (+9.0) @ New York Jets (-9.0)
So we are throwing St. Louis under the bus because they got beat by a very good Arizona Cardinals team? Or are we overvaluing the Jets coming off of their upset in Buffalo? Either way, 9 points is way too many; St. Louis has shown me enough their last four games in beating Washington, beating Dallas, and staying close with New England that they can compete. Bulger should be able to pass on this team, and at least keep it close; especially if Favre keeps his interception-returned-for-a-TD streak going.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Jets
New Orleans (+1.5) @ Atlanta (-1.5)
I love what Matt Ryan is doing in his rookie season as much as anyone, but I think the Saints are the pick here. Drew Brees is quietly (and it is only quiet because New Orleans is only 4 - 4) putting together a remarkable season, and I don't think that the Falcons have the defense to stop him. Do the Saints have the defense to stop Ryan? No, not really. But in what should be a true shootout, I'll take the veteran Brees to get the last score and come out on top.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New Orleans
Buffalo (+3.5) @ New England (-3.5)
Buffalo has fallen from grace quite a bit, losing 2 straight and 3 of their last 4 games. But I'm not willing to write them off just yet; those losses were cross country in Arizona, a tough Miami team in Miami, and in my opinion just catching the Jets at the wrong time. Not that there is ever a "right" time to face New England in New England. But New England's pass defense is just so so, and I actually think Buffalo matches up pretty well here. I think Trent Edwards is going to have a big day and surprise a lot of people, and the Bills will come out on top.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Buffalo
Carolina (-9.5) @ Oakland (+9.5)
Oakland is in complete shambles right now. They were embarrassingly bad last week against Atlanta and there isn't any reason to believe that Carolina can't do the same. I liked the DeAngelo Hall waiving a lot, but the players didn't, and it is causing a pretty clear riff in the locker room. As if they aren't bad enough already, they didn't need even more reason to give up on themselves. Carolina is walking into a great situation to win comfortably. I'd love to philosophy pick the Raiders, but I just can't.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina
Indianapolis (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh (-3.0)
I can never quite figure out Pittsburgh this year, and there is still no definitive word on Roethlisberger's status. With Willie Parker out too, it is hard to figure out where Pittsburgh will be getting their offense from. The Colts meanwhile have been a major disappointment all year that I don't feel the least bit comfortable picking. But maybe they can build on their win over New England and start their playoff push. With Pittsburgh's two best offensive players out, what better time then now to beat the Steelers? In a move I will likely regret, I'll take the Colts.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Indianapolis
Kansas City (+15.5) @ San Diego (-15.5)
It makes perfect sense. San Diego fresh off of a bye has had ample opportunity to prepare for this game, and are poised to make their routine late-season run. They face the league's worst rushing defense with Tomlinson and Sproles likely licking their chops. A blowout win is a very real possibility. Here's the thing though; not only has Kansas City kept its last few games close against the Jets and Bucs (a game they should have won), but this rivalry doesn't exactly produce too many lopsided victories. In their last 15 meetings this game has not had a winner decided by more than 15 points. The Chargers haven't beaten the Chiefs by more than 14 in over 10 years. And has San Diego really even been that overpowering this year? I may get burned here but I'm more than happy to take my chances with this spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego
New York Giants (+3.0) @ Philadelphia (-3.0)
This is an extremely tough game that I can easily see going either way. I'm going to take my chances on the Eagles though. I believe they are capable of slowing down the Giants' running game, the environment should be nice and hostile, and McNabb should be able to put together a big day. Sorry to not break this game down better, it is really more of a gut feeling than anything else. Hard to point out weaknesses on the Giants when they don't really have any.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
MONDAY
San Francisco (+9.5) @ Arizona (-9.5)
When this game was scheduled during the preseason, I'm sure the 49ers were projected to be a whole lot better than they are now. Unfortunately for them, and the viewing public, they aren't. The Cardinal's rushing defense and their likely early lead should be good enough to force the 49ers to start throwing the ball; and that is usually where things get ugly. Not much reason to believe the Cardinals won't be scoring easily, either. Even minus the big number, I do believe Arizona is the easy pick on Monday night.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona
Here are my picks this week... you are probably better off fading them. I'm just posting them because some of you still appreciate my opinion, for whatever reason.
Good luck to all of you this week!
THE RECORD
Last Week
With the spread: 4 - 10 - 0 (.286)
Without the spread: 10 - 4 - 0 (.714)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 0 - 2 - 0 (.000)
Season
With the spread: 67 - 60 - 3 (.528)
Without the spread: 82 - 48 - 0 (.631)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 11 - 3 - 0 (.786)
THE PICKS
* - Indicates Upset Pick
^ - Indicates Philosophical Pick
Last Week
With the spread: 4 - 10 - 0 (.286)
Without the spread: 10 - 4 - 0 (.714)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 0 - 2 - 0 (.000)
Season
With the spread: 67 - 60 - 3 (.528)
Without the spread: 82 - 48 - 0 (.631)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 11 - 3 - 0 (.786)
THE PICKS
* - Indicates Upset Pick
^ - Indicates Philosophical Pick
THURSDAY
Denver (+3.0) @ Cleveland (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Denver (Win)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Denver (Win)
SUNDAY
Tennessee (-3.0) @ Chicago (+3.0)
My magical philosophy picks finally let me down last week, making me take losses on two terrible teams that were very obviously overmatched. Frustrating as it may have been, I can't abandon what's gotten me here; the outside the box thinking on these picks has had quite a bit of success this season. So instead of playing with fear, I'll go back to the well this week. On one side we have an undefeated Tennessee Titans team that has a downright scary defense and running game, coming off of impressive back to back wins against Indianapolis and Green Bay. On the other side, we have a Chicago Bears team that certainly isn't a pushover, but is coming off of two very shaky wins against a mediocre Minnesota team and a downright terrible Lions team. Even more worrisome is Kyle Orton's injury, putting Rex Grossman back in the spotlight against the league's toughest defense. Why is Tennessee only giving up 3 points here? They are clearly the best team in the NFL, and they should manhandle Rex Grossman. This has trap game written all over it; strange spread, Tennessee faces hated rival Jacksonville next week (if you believe in looking ahead), and they've got to lose at some point; this just might be the week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Chicago
Jacksonville (-6.5) @ Detroit (+6.5)
This one is just simple logic. Detroit may still be winless, but they have strung together four straight respectable losses (by margins of 2, 7, 8, and 4) and the addition of Daunte Culpepper definitely shouldn't hurt. Jacksonville, meanwhile, has played 8 games this season, all decided by 7 points or less. Would I like to take Jacksonville to break out of their slump against a weak Detroit team? Yes, I would. But at some point, perhaps we have to accept that a slump that lasts half a season may not be a slump at all; it may just be what the team is.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
Seattle (+8.0) @ Miami (-8.0)
Something tells me a long write up isn't really necessary for me to explain why I like a surging pass happy Dolphins team at home over a reeling, injury-filled, pitiful-pass-defense Seahawks team on the road. Was that adequate enough?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami
Green Bay (+2.5) @ Minnesota (-2.5)
These games just annoy me to no end. You have Minnesota, who can run the ball well and can't defend against the pass, and Green Bay, who can pass the ball well and can't defend against the run. Feel free to ignore my pick and go flip a coin. I'll be taking the Packers, simply because in what should be a close game, I'd rather have my money on Aaron Rodgers than Gus Frerotte.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Green Bay
Baltimore @ Houston (Pick'em)
Houston's passing attack is formidable, but I believe Baltimore's defense will be able to slow it down a bit. And perhaps the bigger story is Baltimore's offense; lost in all of the media love for Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco is putting together a fantastic rookie season and has given the Ravens a vertical passing game that they have sorely lacked for years. Both teams will put up some points, but I think Baltimore comes out on top here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore
St. Louis (+9.0) @ New York Jets (-9.0)
So we are throwing St. Louis under the bus because they got beat by a very good Arizona Cardinals team? Or are we overvaluing the Jets coming off of their upset in Buffalo? Either way, 9 points is way too many; St. Louis has shown me enough their last four games in beating Washington, beating Dallas, and staying close with New England that they can compete. Bulger should be able to pass on this team, and at least keep it close; especially if Favre keeps his interception-returned-for-a-TD streak going.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Jets
New Orleans (+1.5) @ Atlanta (-1.5)
I love what Matt Ryan is doing in his rookie season as much as anyone, but I think the Saints are the pick here. Drew Brees is quietly (and it is only quiet because New Orleans is only 4 - 4) putting together a remarkable season, and I don't think that the Falcons have the defense to stop him. Do the Saints have the defense to stop Ryan? No, not really. But in what should be a true shootout, I'll take the veteran Brees to get the last score and come out on top.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New Orleans
Buffalo (+3.5) @ New England (-3.5)
Buffalo has fallen from grace quite a bit, losing 2 straight and 3 of their last 4 games. But I'm not willing to write them off just yet; those losses were cross country in Arizona, a tough Miami team in Miami, and in my opinion just catching the Jets at the wrong time. Not that there is ever a "right" time to face New England in New England. But New England's pass defense is just so so, and I actually think Buffalo matches up pretty well here. I think Trent Edwards is going to have a big day and surprise a lot of people, and the Bills will come out on top.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Buffalo
Carolina (-9.5) @ Oakland (+9.5)
Oakland is in complete shambles right now. They were embarrassingly bad last week against Atlanta and there isn't any reason to believe that Carolina can't do the same. I liked the DeAngelo Hall waiving a lot, but the players didn't, and it is causing a pretty clear riff in the locker room. As if they aren't bad enough already, they didn't need even more reason to give up on themselves. Carolina is walking into a great situation to win comfortably. I'd love to philosophy pick the Raiders, but I just can't.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina
Indianapolis (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh (-3.0)
I can never quite figure out Pittsburgh this year, and there is still no definitive word on Roethlisberger's status. With Willie Parker out too, it is hard to figure out where Pittsburgh will be getting their offense from. The Colts meanwhile have been a major disappointment all year that I don't feel the least bit comfortable picking. But maybe they can build on their win over New England and start their playoff push. With Pittsburgh's two best offensive players out, what better time then now to beat the Steelers? In a move I will likely regret, I'll take the Colts.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Indianapolis
Kansas City (+15.5) @ San Diego (-15.5)
It makes perfect sense. San Diego fresh off of a bye has had ample opportunity to prepare for this game, and are poised to make their routine late-season run. They face the league's worst rushing defense with Tomlinson and Sproles likely licking their chops. A blowout win is a very real possibility. Here's the thing though; not only has Kansas City kept its last few games close against the Jets and Bucs (a game they should have won), but this rivalry doesn't exactly produce too many lopsided victories. In their last 15 meetings this game has not had a winner decided by more than 15 points. The Chargers haven't beaten the Chiefs by more than 14 in over 10 years. And has San Diego really even been that overpowering this year? I may get burned here but I'm more than happy to take my chances with this spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego
New York Giants (+3.0) @ Philadelphia (-3.0)
This is an extremely tough game that I can easily see going either way. I'm going to take my chances on the Eagles though. I believe they are capable of slowing down the Giants' running game, the environment should be nice and hostile, and McNabb should be able to put together a big day. Sorry to not break this game down better, it is really more of a gut feeling than anything else. Hard to point out weaknesses on the Giants when they don't really have any.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
MONDAY
San Francisco (+9.5) @ Arizona (-9.5)
When this game was scheduled during the preseason, I'm sure the 49ers were projected to be a whole lot better than they are now. Unfortunately for them, and the viewing public, they aren't. The Cardinal's rushing defense and their likely early lead should be good enough to force the 49ers to start throwing the ball; and that is usually where things get ugly. Not much reason to believe the Cardinals won't be scoring easily, either. Even minus the big number, I do believe Arizona is the easy pick on Monday night.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona
arizona score 31-34 pts in this game!
