Bama and Tx Tech won't win it, so who will? Cash to be made?

[SBR_John]

Odds to win 2009 BCS National Championship Wager is on who will win the 2009 BCS National Championship. All teams have action. Singles Only. Max $300
Alabama
5.50

Florida
4.33

Georgia
1001.00

LSU
1001.00

Oklahoma
7.00

Penn State
3.00

Texas
9.50

Texas Tech
9.00

USC
8.00

It looks very very likely that Penn St will be one of the two teams playing. So at 3-1 that's a good bet. May want to wait until Monday even at the cost of shorter odds.

As good as Florida is at home, they have a tough path. I think they can win out but at those odds with what they have left I'll have to pass.

Texas might be a good flier at 9.5 to 1. Tech could get blown out against Okla or could lose to both Okla St and Okla. But all that wouldnt matter if Penn St and Florida run the table. Still, the price is right.

Anyone got an angle to share?

[hoopster42]

although i predicted usc v. florida back on 10/12 (the haters will dog me about usc but forget i also picked florida when 99% of ppl here and in the country had left them for dead)

right now, its looking a lot like: FLORIDA vs PENN STATE

so i would go with both of them

[donjuan]

Doesn't 3.00 = +200? Anyway, Penn St is still a poor bet at +300, too. Let's make some generous win %s for them:

Iowa: 75%
Michigan St: 80%
Indiana: 98%

National Championship game: 40%

Only a 23.5% chance of winning the MNC in that case and I think the 40% is very generous.

[SBR_John]

Good post donjuan. Easy money is hard to come by these days.

USC and Texas are the best two after Penn St and Florida. Just dont see a way for USC to sneak in.

[fiveteamer]

No respect for Alabama.

[Wheell]

Penn St will be favored in every game remaining but I only have them about 53% to win out their regular season games.

I give Texas Tech an 11% chance of winning out, including the Big 12 champ game. I have them being an underdog to Oklahoma.

I give Texas a 61% chance of winning out, including the Big 12 champ game. I have them favored in every game (obviously).

I give Alabama and Florida 53 and 77 percent chances respectively of winning out their regular season schedules. I give Florida a 60% chance of winning against Alabama in the SEC championship game.

The hardest questin to answer in my mind is this:

Presume Texas wins out, Penn St. wins out, Florida wins out (including against Alabama), and Texas tech loses to Oklahoma. Penn St. makes the NCAA championship game. Who joins them?

Texas is the current #4 in the BCS. Florida is #5 but will have added high profile wins vs. Florida St. (on the road), and more importantly, Alabama.

I don't know the odds of Texas maintaining their BCS lead over Florida in that scenario. If we set the odds at 100% then Texas is by far the best bet on the board. People seem to be setting the odds at a lot closer to0% and saying the Florida is certain to pass Texas in the BCS. In that case all the odds listed above are bad.

[hoopster42]

I give Alabama and Florida 53 and 77 percent chances respectively of winning out their regular season schedules. I give Florida a 60% chance of winning against Alabama in the SEC championship game.

you do understand that florida plays at florida state, as in at tallahassee the end of november?

[LT Profits]

FWIW, I am holding Florida +750.

[hoopster42]

FWIW, I am holding Florida +750.

you also said very definitively in one of my threads that texas was going to run the table, and i believe you said they were better than the 05 team too!

still waiting for you to man up and go back and give me props for saying

a) texas would lose at either tex tech or kansas

b) that texas 05 was superior to texas 08

[Wheell]

Hoopster: You are correct. I also had one other error on my spreadsheet, Florida now has a 68% chance of going undefeated.

Thanks.

[hoopster42]

did i mention i had the ny giants +1500 early last season to win the super bowl?

in other words, ANYONE can mention a future they have but theres no way to prove it

[hoopster42]

Hoopster: You are correct. I also had one other error on my spreadsheet, Florida now has a 68% chance of going undefeated.

Thanks.

the lemmings around here will be shocked that i caught your error but they should not be shocked by anything i find in the college game

i follow this shit more than anyone youll ever meet

[Wheell]

the lemmings around here will be shocked that i caught your error but they should not be shocked by anything i find in the college game

i follow this shit more than anyone youll ever meet

Meh. I agree that anyone can claim they bought something when it was at a great price. That is my basic problem with Pags. Sure Team X +7.5 is a great, but that doesn't mean you the reader should take it at +6.5. Picks against current market price are al that we can really measure.

[hoopster42]

Picks against current market price are al that we can really measure.

pavyracer still has not figured this out as he posts lines that are not only not current market price, but lines that never even existed!
he conveniently gives himself a -2.5 when -3.5 was the lowest a line got to, its absolutely fukkin hilarious