**today is a great lesson in NFL parity

[falconticket]

AZ could win 9 games in that div. considering their O/U was 6.5 thats a big number. Bills will finish second behind the Patriots whether they are 10-6 or 11-5 remains to be seen. Theyll win a lot more than people think.

There are 4 or 5 legit teams this year in the NFL thats it. 2 of them are playing right now and one of them is getting smashed. Doesnt mean balt isnt good just means Pats are pissed they lost last week.

But I would say the teams with any ACTUAL shot at the Superbowl, assuming they dont all have catastrophic injuries are, Patriots, 49ers, Texans, Packers.

then you have the second tier play off types...Bears, Chargers, Ravens, Giants, maybe the Steelers, and prob Atlanta by default since someone has to in that division. Teams that will probably win 10+ games but wont be any real threat.

Of course some of these teams prob dont make the play offs de to conference make up and it is possible a 12-4 team misses out because they dont win their conf and dont have a good enough record to win WC. Thats what happened in a top heavy league. Which I think this one is this year. I dont see a lot of parity, beyond there are just a lot of shitty teams.

Wow. You must lose a lot. Falcons clearly top team in NFL as of week three.

[paco]

I got buried.

[thebestthereis]

Fade Lang and stop guessing. Then go do whatever it is you do.

[lunchbawks]

i gues we take seattle tomorrow night

[wantitall4moi]

Wow. You must lose a lot. Falcons clearly top team in NFL as of week three.

they beat two bad teams and the chargers lost 2 fumbles and had 2 INTs, Atl is OK theyre not great. for one thing their defense is whore shit. once they start playing some upper level teams that will really be apparent. but your name says how unbiased you are. falcons might win 10 games this season, should win that division but theyre not even close to a threat let alone a serious one in terms of making a deep play off run.

[milwaukee mike]

AZ could win 9 games in that div. considering their O/U was 6.5 thats a big number. Bills will finish second behind the Patriots whether they are 10-6 or 11-5 remains to be seen. Theyll win a lot more than people think.

There are 4 or 5 legit teams this year in the NFL thats it. 2 of them are playing right now and one of them is getting smashed. Doesnt mean balt isnt good just means Pats are pissed they lost last week.

But I would say the teams with any ACTUAL shot at the Superbowl, assuming they dont all have catastrophic injuries are, Patriots, 49ers, Texans, Packers.

then you have the second tier play off types...Bears, Chargers, Ravens, Giants, maybe the Steelers, and prob Atlanta by default since someone has to in that division. Teams that will probably win 10+ games but wont be any real threat.

Of course some of these teams prob dont make the play offs de to conference make up and it is possible a 12-4 team misses out because they dont win their conf and dont have a good enough record to win WC. Thats what happened in a top heavy league. Which I think this one is this year. I dont see a lot of parity, beyond there are just a lot of shitty teams.

I agree with your prior post that nothing should be a huge surprise. This one is a bit of a stretch though, saying there are only 4 teams with a shot at the super bowl? Ridiculous.
would you have included the giants last year when they got outscored and outgained during the regular season? Or arizona when they almost beat the steelers for the super bowl?
once the playoffs start, a couple bounces in your favor and who knows

[Click_Clack]

I realize there aren't no such thing as upsets anymore. It seems to me you have a better chance just picking the underdog to cover the spread. The writing is on the wall, and I agree wit @wantitall

[falconticket]

they beat two bad teams and the chargers lost 2 fumbles and had 2 INTs, Atl is OK theyre not great. for one thing their defense is whore shit. once they start playing some upper level teams that will really be apparent. but your name says how unbiased you are. falcons might win 10 games this season, should win that division but theyre not even close to a threat let alone a serious one in terms of making a deep play off run.

Best team in NFL right now. Defense is unbelievable. You will lose money fading.

[CanuckG]

Falcons best team in NFL. Okay guy who has the name falconticket.

[milwaukee mike]

Falcons best team in NFL. Okay guy who has the name falconticket.

yeah that seems real objective

[firedawg]

Falcons are really good

[milwaukee mike]

falcons are really good, that won't be denied. you can almost hand them the division already and they should be at least 5-1 going into bye

but best team in the nfl?

[firedawg]

One of the top teams if they stay healthy

[milwaukee mike]

firedawg why don't you have pm's?

i was going to apologize for my ranting the other day, good to see you didn't take it too seriously either

[firedawg]

I don't know why mike... No need to say sorry. It's all in fun

[GunShard]

The public focuses on offense because it's entertaining.
It's critical to be aware of a team that's good both on offense and defense.
Texans, Falcons, Ravens and 49ers for example.
Seahawks and Cardinals are teams that could be balanced on both sides as well.

Home field advantage is critical.
If you had to bet a ML, make sure the team you're betting on is at home.
Crowd noise effects communication for road teams.
Except for the NY Giants, they are road warriors.
Teams that are usually good at home: Falcons, Ravens, Steelers, Patriots, Packers, Seahawks and 49ers. Not so much the Saints anymore because of the offseason scandal.

[milwaukee mike]

good points gunshard

packers have been terrible on defense the last 3 years, still won a super bowl but when you have to score on every possession and never get good field position it's a tougher game (like the patriots last night)

[wantitall4moi]

The public focuses on offense because it's entertaining.
It's critical to be aware of a team that's good both on offense and defense.
Texans, Falcons, Ravens and 49ers for example.
Seahawks and Cardinals are teams that could be balanced on both sides as well.

Home field advantage is critical.
If you had to bet a ML, make sure the team you're betting on is at home.
Crowd noise effects communication for road teams.
Except for the NY Giants, they are road warriors.
Teams that are usually good at home: Falcons, Ravens, Steelers, Patriots, Packers, Seahawks and 49ers. Not so much the Saints anymore because of the offseason scandal.

random generalizations dont work in the NFL, since 1996 home teams are 2435-1753-4 SU, thats around a 54% win rate. ATS those teams (versus generic closers) are 2026-2044-120 ATS. Thats 46.4% eliminating pushes. Even if you made all the pushes wins and went 2146/4483 that would still be less than a 48% win rate. So it is 'safe' to say home teams cover less than half the time in the NFL. If you got a 'bad' number (which a lot of people do, and make the 120 pushes losses, then youre looking at 2026/4483 or 45.1%. Thats worse than flipping a coin should give you even with a massive variance.

Now if you want to break it down into home DOGS,then you get a result of 465-833-1 SU and 644-613-42 ATS. That's 51.2% negating pushes, if you call all the pushes wins (assuming you could have found a better number, which isnt valid but for sake of the example) then that would be 52.8% cover rate.

The 'secret' is subsets, like I have said for years. Coupled with other factors. But even then with all that you will still lose because the ball is a weird shape and there are too many ways to score large chunks of points. Add in horrible officiating and it is completely unpredictable right now.

But suckers gotta bet BECAUSE its the NFL. No other reason really.

[bettilimbroke999]

Mikey you want 10k on the Browns Thursday night even money against the Ravens?

Since they're so even its a fair bet right

[milwaukee mike]

Mikey you want 10k on the Browns Thursday night even money against the Ravens?

Since they're so even its a fair bet right

not sure where i said all teams were even. i said the difference between winning and losing in the nfl is often a very small one

too many people on these boards think that half the chalk will win by 20 each sunday.

kind of crazy to read stuff like "no chance saints will go 0-3" or "49ers can't lose to minnesota", it's the nfl and these guys are really good, anything can and will happen...

[bettilimbroke999]

I will agree that there is much greater parity in the NFL than in say the NBA...I was actually sad to hear that Nash and Howard were somehow both allowed to be acquired by the Lakers (after the league went through so much trouble to block the CP3 trade last year to maintain competitive "fairness"), it appears once again they want to consolidate all the All-Star players to a couple of teams and just have them blow their competition away and win 90% of their games blindfolded

[wantitall4moi]

I will agree that there is much greater parity in the NFL than in say the NBA...I was actually sad to hear that Nash and Howard were somehow both allowed to be acquired by the Lakers (after the league went through so much trouble to block the CP3 trade last year to maintain competitive "fairness"), it appears once again they want to consolidate all the All-Star players to a couple of teams and just have them blow their competition away and win 90% of their games blindfolded

Howard probably wont play half the games this season if he plays at all, so I wouldn't call that a coup. If I were a Lakers fan I would be praying every night they dont offer this guy any long term deals and if they do he accepts.

[bettilimbroke999]

Howard probably wont play half the games this season if he plays at all, so I wouldn't call that a coup. If I were a Lakers fan I would be praying every night they dont offer this guy any long term deals and if they do he accepts.

One of 5 best centers in NBA history is all...your post makes absolutely no sense he has never been a guy to miss many games...sure he had some minor surgery at the end of last season (and didnt want to play for Van Gundy anyway) but other than that which was months ago I dont see him missing many games, certainly not in the postseason anyway

Now personally I hate his guts and wish he wasnt around simply bc hes one of the biggest jackasses in pro sports but you cant deny he is by far the best center in the league today that is obvious