Free Money: Presidential election scalp

[xyz]

The greek: Democrat -1245
Matchbook: Republican around +1300 to +1350 (I would expect this to go up in the morning)

Not bad for a one day gain.

[rm18]

bodog has obama -1000

[treece]

bodog has obama -1000

5 dimes to win a nickel.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Uhh. He's talking about for the scalp, genius.

[treece]

Whats the point of scalping, McCain should be +10000. Bet it all on obama.

[xyz]

bodog has obama -1000

It shows a $500 limit on bodog. I would do the scalp if I had money at bodog.

[treece]

BetJam and BookMaker took the elections off the board.

[rm18]

I wish someone would bet Obama for me at bodog, but it would never work trusting someone for 5k when guys stiff for $100

[MonkeyF0cker]

You really think he's got better than a 90% chance to win tomorrow? If not, it's a bad bet. IMO, there would be some value in McCain. Not much though.

[eidolon]

Odd question: How are people allowed to bet where they have a hand in it? (voting)
I know its 1 vote out of 120million...but still, the principles apply don't they?

[rm18]

You really think he's got better than a 90% chance to win tomorrow? If not, it's a bad bet. IMO, there would be some value in McCain. Not much though.

I trust the website which says he has a 98.1% chance

[rm18]

Odd question: How are people allowed to bet where they have a hand in it? (voting)
I know its 1 vote out of 120million...but still, the principles apply don't they?

it is the same thing for the slam dunk contest, also you can effect some games from the stands like catch a baseball or throw stuff on the field to get a penalty on the home team.

[MonkeyF0cker]

I trust the website which says he has a 98.1% chance

Just curious, but which website said that? It's a great bet if it really is that high.

[donjuan]

538. While 538 isn't a bad site, I wouldn't trust their numbers to beat the market.

[rm18]

538. While 538 isn't a bad site, I wouldn't trust their numbers to beat the market.

If the market was closer to 50/50 you are probably right, but when we are talking about +600 and up I think it is hard to keep people from taking McCain even though it is a bad play. Some people take McCain because they want him to win.

Also Obama being black I think is part of why the line was off, if the polls said what they said for John Edwards he would be a bigger favorite. Some people may be racist but that is already factored into the polls.

[treece]

I think everyone is racist, its built into our DNA. Some are a lot racist and some are a little racist. Look at Colin Powell, he's a republican yet votes for democrat obama because he's black.

[JoshW]

I hope the market is right, but +1300 is tempting to me, and I want Obama to win.

[Richkas]

The greek: Democrat -1245
Matchbook: Republican around +1300 to +1350 (I would expect this to go up in the morning)

Not bad for a one day gain.

so if Obama wins you break even.

Grow a sack and gamble.

[MonkeyF0cker]

No, idiot. You can scalp to guarantee a profit regardless of the outcome.