Just looking at the lines right now. I try to place my own estimates prior to looking at lines to minimize any bias. Two Teamers seem like the only real viable options as the odds start dropping a lot after that so I'm keeping it simple and want to use some variation of the following:
1. St. Louis +9 at Chicago = Tease to +15.
- I'm liking the Rams more this season and think their coach will help turn around the organization. Chicago seems just riddled with problems this year and can't seem to get their chemistry together. Add in that their QB Cutler has essentially lost a lot of his leadership ability and some on the team are downright pissed at him. I don't think they're a cohesive unit right now and that means lack of focus. After coming off 7 sacks and 4 interceptions, I think Cutler will slow it down to play safe, meaning a lower-scoring game which is great for a 15-point cushion.
2. San Francisco -7 at Minnesota = Tease to -1.
- 49ers are clearly the better team here (best in the NFL?). I think they'll continue rolling. Only thing I don't like here is that teasing to -1 basically means they have to cover by 3. Still, they dominated 2 strong teams (Packers by 8 in GB and Detroit by 8 at home) and I don't see them slacking coming into Minny.
3. New Orleans -7.5 v. KC = Tease to -1.5
- Both teams are the bottom half of NFL teams including the Saints. The delay with signing Brees shows and the loss of players - or more important losing their coach for the season - from the Bounty Scandal show that they face an uphill battle this year. This game at home is a must-win for the Saints. For the Chiefs its feels like just another game in what I suspect is going to be a horrid season. Both have horrible defense but at least the Saints can score. And that Dome gets awful loud - a true 12th man.
4. Atl. +3.5 at SD = Tease to +9.5
- Numbers work great here so Chargers have to win by 10. Falcons have dominated twice (KC is a horrid team though) and so have the Chargers, but the Chargers have only been beating up on weak teams (OAK and TENN). Oakland got stomped by Miami, and Chris Johnson (17 yards on 8 carries), when asked whats wrong with the Titans offense - simply said he doesn't even know where to start. The Falcons got Peyton Manning off his game tonight (3 interceptions 1st quarter through creative defensive schemes) and kept a solid lead through the entire game vs. a solid Denver team. It got close the 4th quarter mainly because the Falcons were playing it safe. Falcons can easily win outright in San Diego.
5. Seattle +3.5 v. GB = Tease to 9.5
- loooove this teaser here because the Packers have to win by 10 in Seattle's home turf. Three factors here influence the appeal: (1) Packers are overrated (*slightly); (2) Seattle is underrated; and (3) Seattle plays at home. The Cowboys had trouble against Seattle this week getting their offense going with a respectable running game. Packers will have even more issues on the run and I see a lower scoring game here, which in turn favors Seattle. I don't see Seattle winning outright, but I think they'll keep it close enough.
6. AZ +4 v Philly = Tease to +10
- Don't like the tease hitting 10 (risky to hit a tie and kill the teaser), nor the unpredictability of the Eagles but credit should be given to AZ they had a great game vs. Seattle (who went on to dominate the Cowboys) then went and beat the Patriots IN New England. Cardinals may be the dark horse of the season and if there's a good ML it might be a good single bet. Playing at home and taking +4 points clinches the decision.
Let me know your thoughts.
Cheers.
1. St. Louis +9 at Chicago = Tease to +15.
- I'm liking the Rams more this season and think their coach will help turn around the organization. Chicago seems just riddled with problems this year and can't seem to get their chemistry together. Add in that their QB Cutler has essentially lost a lot of his leadership ability and some on the team are downright pissed at him. I don't think they're a cohesive unit right now and that means lack of focus. After coming off 7 sacks and 4 interceptions, I think Cutler will slow it down to play safe, meaning a lower-scoring game which is great for a 15-point cushion.
2. San Francisco -7 at Minnesota = Tease to -1.
- 49ers are clearly the better team here (best in the NFL?). I think they'll continue rolling. Only thing I don't like here is that teasing to -1 basically means they have to cover by 3. Still, they dominated 2 strong teams (Packers by 8 in GB and Detroit by 8 at home) and I don't see them slacking coming into Minny.
3. New Orleans -7.5 v. KC = Tease to -1.5
- Both teams are the bottom half of NFL teams including the Saints. The delay with signing Brees shows and the loss of players - or more important losing their coach for the season - from the Bounty Scandal show that they face an uphill battle this year. This game at home is a must-win for the Saints. For the Chiefs its feels like just another game in what I suspect is going to be a horrid season. Both have horrible defense but at least the Saints can score. And that Dome gets awful loud - a true 12th man.
4. Atl. +3.5 at SD = Tease to +9.5
- Numbers work great here so Chargers have to win by 10. Falcons have dominated twice (KC is a horrid team though) and so have the Chargers, but the Chargers have only been beating up on weak teams (OAK and TENN). Oakland got stomped by Miami, and Chris Johnson (17 yards on 8 carries), when asked whats wrong with the Titans offense - simply said he doesn't even know where to start. The Falcons got Peyton Manning off his game tonight (3 interceptions 1st quarter through creative defensive schemes) and kept a solid lead through the entire game vs. a solid Denver team. It got close the 4th quarter mainly because the Falcons were playing it safe. Falcons can easily win outright in San Diego.
5. Seattle +3.5 v. GB = Tease to 9.5
- loooove this teaser here because the Packers have to win by 10 in Seattle's home turf. Three factors here influence the appeal: (1) Packers are overrated (*slightly); (2) Seattle is underrated; and (3) Seattle plays at home. The Cowboys had trouble against Seattle this week getting their offense going with a respectable running game. Packers will have even more issues on the run and I see a lower scoring game here, which in turn favors Seattle. I don't see Seattle winning outright, but I think they'll keep it close enough.
6. AZ +4 v Philly = Tease to +10
- Don't like the tease hitting 10 (risky to hit a tie and kill the teaser), nor the unpredictability of the Eagles but credit should be given to AZ they had a great game vs. Seattle (who went on to dominate the Cowboys) then went and beat the Patriots IN New England. Cardinals may be the dark horse of the season and if there's a good ML it might be a good single bet. Playing at home and taking +4 points clinches the decision.
Let me know your thoughts.
Cheers.
I guess you have to like (or love) the Falcons with the 9.5 here (I'd try for 10, maybe) but -- and yes, the opponents have not been strong -- the Charger's D has looked much different (better) this year and they are playing aggressively. Don't know if they can stop a good running game but Ryan does not terrify me. River's has been playing mistake-free so far and that has been a key. But, the Charger's oline is probably questionable and so is Norv's ability to fine tune an offensive game plan for a particular opponent (Atlanta). The Charger's Kaeding is one of the weaker KO guys in term of distance, so there are run- backs. Ryan Matthews may play this week but I don't know if that is a good thing. The Charger's discovered last week that they have a pair of pretty good power runners in McClain and Battle but I don't know if Norv will take advantage of that. Anyway, Atlanta +9.5 or 10 probably sounds good.
