Help out a homer!

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  • ChalkyDog
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 10-02-11
    • 9598

    #1
    Help out a homer!
    Arizona +24 @ Oregon?

    When is the last time a nationally ranked team was spotted 3TD's? I understand Arizona is "overranked" and I understand Oregon looks beast mode.

    How do I not take the points here. All lines I have made for this, using differing numbers, have Oregon favored by a little more than a TD - AT MOST!

    For fear of calling this a bad line alert, again. (What a disaster that was) And based on the recent track record in PT on good cappers taking their team, I want some unbiased insight if possible.
  • firedawg
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 10-08-08
    • 39219

    #2
    I would have to take the points here
    Comment
    • Chi_archie
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 07-22-08
      • 63172

      #3
      first glance it seems obvious?

      too easy rule maybe needs to be applied
      Comment
      • mynameismud
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 02-13-12
        • 5461

        #4
        seems at first to take zona...but oregon loves to run up the score. they score like 55 pts per game no matter who they are playing.
        Comment
        • ChalkyDog
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 10-02-11
          • 9598

          #5
          Too good rule needed to be applied to me yesterday with the 'Aints. Knew , without question, that was a trap line, trap game, etc. Vegas just teeing it up for me - I knew it and bit anyway.

          Truthfully, I expect Arizona to get rolled. I have no idea how they won against OK St., I thought they damn well deserved to lose against Toledo at home. But getting that kind of points is hard to ignore.
          Comment
          • milwaukee mike
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 08-22-07
            • 26914

            #6
            betting games like this and hoping for a backdoor score or hoping the clock gets run out isn't my idea of fun

            better games on the board to choose from imho
            Comment
            • MoneyLineDawg
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 01-01-09
              • 13253

              #7
              I think it's really a coin flip (Spread wise)

              Nothing against Zona, they're just not there yet......Only a handful of teams that can even slow down Oregon, and they ain't one of em

              Maybe Over is the better play?
              Comment
              • paranoyd androyd
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 10-01-11
                • 6459

                #8
                arizona's defense is too poor for me to trust them on that turf. i may consider playing their tt over if it's 24 or less though. gl
                Comment
                • ChalkyDog
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 10-02-11
                  • 9598

                  #9
                  Originally posted by milwaukee mike
                  betting games like this and hoping for a backdoor score or hoping the clock gets run out isn't my idea of fun

                  better games on the board to choose from imho
                  This is the truth. If I wasn't an Arizona fan, this game wouldn't even be on the radar.

                  My whole thing in football is finding value in the spreads - numbers alone, there seems to be a ton of value in Arizona. Looking at the game, and situationaly handicapping this, I believe the game will hover around this spread all 2nd half.

                  First road game, playing a team that is based in a Rich Rod offense, and bringing with him a DC that revolutionized a defense specifically for playing against this spread..... Problem is, for Arizona, they are lacking talent on D - especially in a 3-3-5.
                  Comment
                  • dice
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 11-28-09
                    • 669

                    #10
                    Originally posted by ChalkyDog
                    Arizona +24 @ Oregon?

                    When is the last time a nationally ranked team was spotted 3TD's? I understand Arizona is "overranked" and I understand Oregon looks beast mode.

                    How do I not take the points here. All lines I have made for this, using differing numbers, have Oregon favored by a little more than a TD - AT MOST!

                    For fear of calling this a bad line alert, again. (What a disaster that was) And based on the recent track record in PT on good cappers taking their team, I want some unbiased insight if possible.
                    Arizona seems too easy.
                    Comment
                    • gojetsgomoxies
                      SBR MVP
                      • 09-04-12
                      • 4222

                      #11
                      love the pick

                      altho how does personnel fit richrod's style? from looks of thing, pretty good.


                      Lack of respect for RR is a bit baffling. sure, a failure at michigan but didn't have right personnel. sdsu hire (name escapes me) hasn't set the world on fire since.

                      was looking up tulane's undefeated team today (wanted to know which bowden was HC). anyway, RR was OC of the team... OC of an undefeated team at tulane.... tulane for gosh sakes
                      Comment
                      • gojetsgomoxies
                        SBR MVP
                        • 09-04-12
                        • 4222

                        #12
                        btw, oregon will have offensive starters in longer than they have. not sure of backdoor dynamics if necessary but 24 has to be close to backdoor country
                        Comment
                        • ChalkyDog
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 10-02-11
                          • 9598

                          #13
                          Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies
                          love the pick

                          altho how does personnel fit richrod's style? from looks of thing, pretty good.


                          Lack of respect for RR is a bit baffling. sure, a failure at michigan but didn't have right personnel. sdsu hire (name escapes me) hasn't set the world on fire since.

                          was looking up tulane's undefeated team today (wanted to know which bowden was HC). anyway, RR was OC of the team... OC of an undefeated team at tulane.... tulane for gosh sakes
                          There is no question that Rich Rod is a football genius. Zero. Even Michigan fans have to give him that, and most have - the others are just obsessed with the guy.

                          That said, the guy is still stuck with Simple Mike's recruits - which is fine for Rich Rod on offense, but terrible for defense.

                          Because of Rich Rod, I have been horribly wrong, publicly, when trying to cap an Arizona game. I literally have no clue on what this team is. Before the season, maybe a 4-5 win team at best. Now - looking at a bowl.
                          Comment
                          • gojetsgomoxies
                            SBR MVP
                            • 09-04-12
                            • 4222

                            #14
                            gray out 2-4 weeks so that suggests people think minnesota is equiv. to syracuse without gray and that's wrong... syracuse looks like good play
                            Comment
                            • Brock Landers
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 06-30-08
                              • 45359

                              #15
                              i don't think ORegon's D is good enough to stop Arizona from scoring...should be a point fest
                              Comment
                              • Blazermaniac
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 10-30-08
                                • 556

                                #16
                                Two words....Wake and Florida St. Hmmm....that's four words.
                                Comment
                                • HawkEye
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 08-13-10
                                  • 237

                                  #17
                                  Just bet oregon's team total. It'll hit after the 3rd quarter.
                                  Comment
                                  • agendaman
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 12-01-11
                                    • 3733

                                    #18
                                    absol.rule /if you have to keep asking questions/opinions why/whynot either layoff or bet the other side oregon has a fine qb. plus 2 nice rbs. the books made oregon a 24pt. fav. for a reason ok bet oregon here is one for you florida atl. is a 50pt. dog to alabama /im giving the 50 gl
                                    Comment
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