Originally posted on 11/23/2016:

Walters, a career featherweight, is challenging 130lbs titlist Lomachenko, who is considered one of the most talented boxers in the world. Walters is a puncher, Lomachecnko a master technician. Lomachenko was favored when the line opened and is now a MASSIVE betting favorite. There is some opportunity betting this fight. Here's my probability breakdown:

For the KO:
Walters - 10%
Lomachenko - 21%

For the Decision:
Walters - 12%
Lomachecnko - 52%
Draw - 5%

Although a power puncher, Walters chance of a KO are minimal. We saw in his last fight that his power didn't carry 100% to the 130 division, and he's going against arguably the greatest amateur boxer of all time who has proven himself a savvy, resilient pro. Lomachenko is the superior boxer here, and I see a lightly moderate chance of him stopping Walters late in the fight due to his overwhelming technical edge. Walters does have a massive reach advantage over Lomachenko (73"-65"), which may play a factor, but odds are Lomachecko will use his speed and skill to rack up points. The most likely scenario here is that this fight will go 12 and be awarded to the Ukrainian.

The bet to make here is the distance prop.

My odds of the fight going 12 = 69% (-223)
Current line for prop = 64.3% (-180)

If you're a gambler who likes to takes underdogs, you'll want to bet Walters by decision, which stands at:

My odds: 12% (+733)
Current line: 5.88% (+1600) (If you're having a good betting week and have a few bucks to blow, this is a good line to take to make the fight more interesting. This fight is favored by all books to go 12, so why not take the underdog at such a nice price?)

*Please note that the distance prop gap is not that large, so this is not a bet you should stake an enormous amount on. Using Kelly criterion we're looking at about 14% of bankroll.*

Book odds taken from 5dimes.