How risky should I play it to close this open parlay at 5Dimes?

[Nittany Lion]

Should I play it safe and take Alabama ML? Or take the Ravens ML to more then double my winnings? Everything would depend on the Ravens winning a road game against the Eagles, they sucked in their road games last year but maybe this year they will do better. I'm small time so winning $400 would be big, I usually never bet more then $10 per play but I'm a Steelers fan so I did an emotional hedge for $30 on the Broncos and knew the Ravens would beat the Bengals last night by at least 4. The rest of the legs are just plays I think have a strong chance of winning. It's a 10 team open parlay so I have to close it.

Ones highlighted in green already won. One in blue is the different leg, first one below has Alabama ML, 2nd one below has Ravens ML.

1. 9/9/2012 8:25PM Denver Broncos -3 +115 vs Pittsburgh Steelers
   
2. 9/10/2012 7:00PM Baltimore Ravens -4 -210 vs Cincinnati Bengals
3. 9/16/2012 1:00PM New England Patriots -850 vs Arizona Cardinals
4. 9/16/2012 4:25PM New York Jets +14 -360 vs Pittsburgh Steelers
5. 9/15/2012 12:00PM Purdue -2400 vs Eastern Michigan
6. 9/15/2012 12:00PM Florida State -3300 vs Wake Forest
7. 9/15/2012 12:00PM Ohio State -950 vs California
8. 9/15/2012 4:00PM Central Florida -900 vs Florida International
9. 9/15/2012 7:00PM Mississippi State -900 vs Troy
10. 9/15/2012 3:30 PM College Football 141 Alabama* -1400 vs Arkansas

Risking $30.00 To Win $184.49

1. 9/9/2012 8:25PM Denver Broncos -3 +115 vs Pittsburgh Steelers
   
2. 9/10/2012 7:00PM Baltimore Ravens -4 -210 vs Cincinnati Bengals
3. 9/16/2012 1:00PM New England Patriots -850 vs Arizona Cardinals
4. 9/16/2012 4:25PM New York Jets +14 -360 vs Pittsburgh Steelers
5. 9/15/2012 12:00PM Purdue -2400 vs Eastern Michigan
6. 9/15/2012 12:00PM Florida State -3300 vs Wake Forest
7. 9/15/2012 12:00PM Ohio State -950 vs California
8. 9/15/2012 4:00PM Central Florida -900 vs Florida International
9. 9/15/2012 7:00PM Mississippi State -900 vs Troy
10. 9/16/2012 1:00 PM NFL Football 207 Baltimore Ravens* +117 vs Philadelphia Eagles

Risking $30.00 To Win $404.41

[sneakerhead]

I was in the same predicament few weeks ago, ill take the safe side. I do like Ravens though but not enough to take the risk, best of luck!

[Nittany Lion]

I'm thinking maybe instead of Ravens ML I take Redskins -3? What other plays you guys like?

1. 9/9/2012 8:25PM Denver Broncos -3 +115 vs Pittsburgh Steelers
2. 9/10/2012 7:00PM Baltimore Ravens -4 -210 vs Cincinnati Bengals
3. 9/16/2012 1:00PM New England Patriots -850 vs Arizona Cardinals
4. 9/16/2012 4:25PM New York Jets +14 -360 vs Pittsburgh Steelers
5. 9/15/2012 12:00PM Purdue -2400 vs Eastern Michigan
6. 9/15/2012 12:00PM Florida State -3300 vs Wake Forest
7. 9/15/2012 12:00PM Ohio State -950 vs California
8. 9/15/2012 4:00PM Central Florida -900 vs Florida International
9. 9/15/2012 7:00PM Mississippi State -900 vs Troy
10. 9/16/2012 4:05 PM NFL Football 217 Washington Redskins* -3 -110 vs St. Louis Rams

Risking $30.00 To Win $350.16

[Matt1144]

I'd play it safe. Bama ML is as safe as it gets.

[cumatmebrah]

LMAO!!!!!!!!!!

Wtf is the point of a dumb ass parlay like that

Brb picking all -2500 favs

Do the ravens ML tho

[noles79]

id say bama.

[Nittany Lion]

LMAO!!!!!!!!!!

Wtf is the point of a dumb ass parlay like that

Brb picking all -2500 favs

Do the ravens ML tho

What's the point? To mostly pick sure winners to close it out, I'm just trying to decide if I should make the 10th leg another big ML favorite like Alabama ML or take a risk and potentially double my winnings.

[tshafer117]

Honestly I think you should take the Alabama ML, I love Ravens week 2, but I think play it safe.

[cumatmebrah]

What's the point? To mostly pick sure winners to close it out, I'm just trying to decide if I should make the 10th leg another big ML favorite like Alabama ML or take a risk and potentially double my winnings.

I understand the concept, if your going to do that then just do a parlay with less spots instead of risking one upset ruin the whole thing when it's giving you next to nothing value in the first place

[sneakerhead]

What's the point? To mostly pick sure winners to close it out, I'm just trying to decide if I should make the 10th leg another big ML favorite like Alabama ML or take a risk and potentially double my winnings.

With some quick calculations, if you do bet Alabama and win, you will get back roughly $214 (inc. $30).
Now if you place the $214 on Ravens ML (+117) with a separate bet, your return will be about $250 making your total about $464 compared to $434 you are getting back posted above. You arent really doubling your winnings, I mean you are but you are taking a risk as well. You can treat Ravens as a separate bet as well and play it safer. If you even do decide to go that way, your return will be more at current (+117) line as well so stick with Bama and reward yourself for picking 9 winners lol

[Nittany Lion]

With some quick calculations, if you do bet Alabama and win, you will get back roughly $214 (inc. $30).
Now if you place the $214 on Ravens ML (+117) with a separate bet, your return will be about $250 making your total about $464 compared to $434 you are getting back posted above. You arent really doubling your winnings, I mean you are but you are taking a risk as well. You can treat Ravens as a separate bet as well and play it safer. If you even do decide to go that way, your return will be more at current (+117) line as well so stick with Bama and reward yourself for picking 9 winners lol

Thanks, you're exactly right. I'm just going to close this parlay out with the Alabama ML and then I'll make another bet on the Ravens ML, probably just put a small amount on it since it's so early in the season still and who knows what Ravens team will show up.