TMoney's 2012/2013 NFL thread

[TMoney33]

I play just for fun, and decided that I would post all of my plays here just for entertainment. I'll track my performance here with W/L % and +/- Units.

My units are based on roughly 1% of BR. Plays will range from fractional to 20 units.

This is JUST for Entertainment. I don't care whether you fade or tail, but whatever you do is YOUR CHOICE so don't come on here flaming me over losers.

One other note: Throughout the season, I occasionally get offered props by a local. These lines will be much better than can be found elsewhere. I realize that others won't be able to play them, but I can, so I will post them.

GL all!

[TMoney33]

Futures Bets:

To Win Super Bowl XLVII
BUF +5000
Risk 0.3 to win 15

To Win Super Bowl XLVII
NOR +1800
Risk 0.3 to win 5.4

To Win Super Bowl XLVII
DET +2000
Risk 0.3 to win 6

To Win Super Bowl XLVII
IND +15000
Risk 0.1 to win 15

REG Season WINS
BUF o7.5-110
Risk 22 to win 20

The BUF reg season wins is a prop from a local. I know that this line is not available elsewhere at this price.

[TMoney33]

Week 1 Plays

NYG -3 (-130)
Risk 2 to win 1.538

NYG -7.5 (+175)
Risk 0.5 to win 0.875

Parlay
NYG -3.5
NYG/DAL u45
Risk 0.2 to win 0.529

[TMoney33]

Halftime Prop Bet

2nd Half Total Points
NYG o13+100
Risk 0.5 to win 0.5

[TMoney33]

Week 1 Plays
NYG -3 (-130)
Risk 2 to win 1.538

NYG -7.5 (+175)
Risk 0.5 to win 0.875

Parlay
NYG -3.5
NYG/DAL u45
Risk 0.2 to win 0.529

2nd Half Total Points
NYG o13+100
Risk 0.5 to win 0.5

Not an awesome first night.

2012/2013 Record
ATS 0-2 (-2.5)
Parlay 0-1 (-0.2)
Prop 1-0 (+0.5)
TOTAL 1-3 (-2.2)

[TMoney33]

Fantasy H2H Props

These are from DSI:

J Cutler vs A Luck
J Cutler -2 (-125)
Risk 0.5 to win 0.4

A Rodgers vs A Smith
A Smith +13 (-115)
Risk 0.5 to win 0.435
J Freeman vs C Newton
J Freeman +10 (-115)
Risk 0.5 to win 0.435

Cutler is solid and now has Marshall back, and there is a ton of pressure on Luck but he doesn't have alot of support.

Smith is going to have to throw the ball alot to stay in the game, and I think 13pts is pretty generous.

I'm looking for Freeman to bounce back off his sophomore slump, and for Newton to enter his.

I really like all three of these, but the season is just beginning, so I'm keeping my plays small.

[TMoney33]

Futures Bets:
REG Season WINS
BUF o7.5-110
Risk 22 to win 20

The BUF reg season wins is a prop from a local. I know that this line is not available elsewhere at this price.

This ^ is wrong. I was going off memory, and listed the wrong price an amount. It should be
REG Season WINS
BUF o7.5-120
Risk 18 to win 15

[TMoney33]

Sunday 9/9/12

I'm going to start out small because I don't really have a good enough feel for the teams yet.

ATS:
These were the only two spreads I liked this week.

DET -8.5 (-110)
Risk 2.2 to win 2
I expect this to be the blowout of the weekend.

SEA -3(+105)
Risk 1 to win 1.05
I've banking on QB Wilson maintaining his strong performance from the pre-season.

ML:
I don't have high expectations of any of these teams winning, but I see lots of value in these plays.

IND+410
Risk 1 to win 4.1
I have high expecations for the Cutler/Marshall combo, but again there's value here.
WAS+330
Risk 1 to win 3.3
I don't know what to expect from wither of these teams this year.
CLE+370
Risk 1 to win 3.7
Will probably get blown out.
MIA+600
Risk 2 to win 12
Really? MIA is priced at less than a 15% chance of winning.

I'll also be on the PIT ML, but haven't booked a price on it yet.

Teasers:
I always play a few small teasers.

BUF +8.5
TB + 8.5
PIT +7.5
Risk 0.5 to Win 0.9
Wong Teaser

PIT +8
PIT/DEN u52
Risk 1 to win 0.909
I think PIT wins s/u. 2 Strong Defenses.

Parlay:
I also like the weekly parlay.

NO-7
DET-7
BAL-6
Risk 0.5 to win 2.979


Fade or Tail - GL

[TMoney33]

GB/SF Live Spread (DSI)
SF-12(+115)
Risk 0.5 to win 0.575

[TMoney33]

Today's Stats

Props: 3-0 (+1.27)
J Cutler vs A Luck
J Cutler -2 (-125)
Risk 0.5 to win 0.4

A Rodgers vs A Smith
A Smith +13 (-115)
Risk 0.5 to win 0.435

J Freeman vs C Newton
J Freeman +10 (-115)
Risk 0.5 to win 0.435


ATS: 0-3 (-3.7u)
DET -8.5 (-110)
Risk 2.2 to win 2

SEA -3(+105)
Risk 1 to win 1.05

GB/SF Live Spread (DSI)
SF-12(+115)
Risk 0.5 to win 0.575

ML: 1-3 (-0.7u)
IND+410
Risk 1 to win 4.1

WAS+330
Risk 1 to win 3.3

CLE+370
Risk 1 to win 3.7

MIA+600
Risk 2 to win 12

Teasers: 0-1 (-0.5u)
BUF +8.5
TB + 8.5
PIT +7.5
Risk 0.5 to Win 0.9

Parlay: 0-1 (-0.5u)
NO-7
DET-7
BAL-6
Risk 0.5 to win 2.979

Open Bet:PIT +8
PIT/DEN u52
Risk 1 to win 0.909

Added Bet:
PIT+120
Risk 1.5 to win 1.8

---------------------
2012/2013 Record
ATS 0-5 (-6.2)
ML 1-3 (-0.7)
Parlay 0-2 (-0.7)
Teaser 0-1 (-0.5)
Prop 4-0 (+1.77)
TOTAL 5-11 (-6.33)
Yeah, I'm sucking so far.

[TMoney33]

PIT +8
PIT/DEN u52
Risk 1 to win 0.909

PIT+120
Risk 1.5 to win 1.8

---------------------
2012/2013 Record
ATS 0-5 (-6.2)
ML 1-4 (-2.2)
Parlay 0-2 (-0.7)
Teaser 0-2 (-1.5)
Prop 4-0 (+1.77)
TOTAL 5-13 (-8.83)

*Sigh* Rough start. I'm just glad that I kept my plays small. There's still lots of football to be played, so I'm not too worried. Right now I don't think that I have any plays for tomorrow, but I may put something on just for fun.

[TMoney33]

3 Small Plays

ML:
CIN+270
0.5 to win 1.35

Prop:
Longest FG OAK/SD game
o45(-105)
0.5 to win 0.476

Prop:
Total FG Score OAK/SD game
03.5(+140)
0.5 to win 0.7

[TMoney33]

ML:
CIN+270
0.5 to win 1.35

Prop:
Longest FG OAK/SD game
o45(-105)
0.5 to win 0.476

Prop:
Total FG Score OAK/SD game
03.5(+140)
0.5 to win 0.7

---------------------
2012/2013 Record
ATS 0-5 (-6.2)
ML 1-5 (-2.7)
Parlay 0-2 (-0.7)
Teaser 0-2 (-1.5)
Prop 6-0 (+2.946)
TOTAL 7-14 = 33% (-8.154)

[TMoney33]

9/13

ATS:
GB-5 (-110)
Risk 1.5 to win 1.364
Either they lose outright, or easily cover here. I don't foresee a close final.

Prop:
Fantasy H2H (DSI)
B Marshall v J Nelson
Marshall-2(-110)
Risk 0.5 to win 0.455
Marshall is Cutler's go-to guy while Rodgers has lots of options.

Added - Team Total
GB u27.5 (+115)
Risk 0.5 to win 0.575
It seems like there is a little bit of value in this line

[TMoney33]

Halftime Play

3rd Quarter Line
CHI pk (+100)
Risk 0.5 to win 0.5

[TMoney33]

Live Spread (DSI):
CHI+10.5 (-112)
Risk 1.5 to win 13.39

Hoping for a middle here

[TMoney33]

I now have GB-5 and CHI+10.5. I think this is a great spot - GB wins by 6-10, and I catch both sides. The above play on CHI should read "to win 1.339", not "13.39".

[TMoney33]

ATS:
GB-5 (-110)
Risk 1.5 to win 1.364
CHI+10.5 (-112)
Risk 1.5 to win 1.339

3rd Quarter Line
CHI pk (+100)
Risk 0.5 to win 0.5

PROP:
Fantasy H2H (DSI)
B Marshall v J Nelson
Marshall-2(-110)
Risk 0.5 to win 0.455

Team Total
GB u27.5 (+115)
Risk 0.5 to win 0.575

I guess maybe jumping on CHI+10.5 was a little greedy, but I thought that I had a good middle opportunity. Whatever the case, I still came out ahead 0.025 on the two. I finished the day up 0.439 - nothing to write home about, but a step in the right direction.

---------------------
2012/2013 Record
Spread 2-6 (-5.836)
Moneyline 1-5 (-2.7)
Parlay 0-2 (-0.7)
Teaser 0-2 (-1.5)
Proposition 6-1 (+2.446)
Team Total 1-0 (+0.575)
TOTAL 10-16 = 38% (-7.715)

[TMoney33]

This is ridiculous trying to keep everything lined up in this thread. There's too much chance of error in tracking my record this way. I'm going to post all my plays in the SBR Spreadsheet going forward. I will sill post my bigger plays and any discussions on them in this thread. I'll also occasionally update my record in here, but for the most part all of my plays will be tracked in the spreadsheet. Here is the full link: http://tmoney33.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

My 2012 plays up to this point have been added to the spreadsheet for tracking purposes.

[TMoney33]

9/16 1 PM games

All of the following games had good value on the ML: AZ+625, IND+140, CLE+290, JAX+250, MIA+105. I popped each one for one unit*.

*Note my units are based on % of BR, so they are all smaller this week.

I like MIA and BAL to each win s/u, and the spreads weren't very enticing, so I went another 1u on MIA, and 1u on BAL.

I really like CLE here against CIN. I have them on the ML and at +7. I also put them in a few parlays and teasers.

ATS I really only liked 2 faves in the early games. I really like NOR -3, and expect them to shoot the lights out. It's early in the season though, so I only went 3u. I also like NYG, and swear that I think they were -7 most of the weekend at dsi. Today when I went to book it, they were at -8. That's a pretty big difference. So, I'm only going 1u here.

I also put together some teasers/parlays, including a lotto ticket paying 14K/1.

[TMoney33]

Great Prop -

DSI had "Total TD's for all NFL teams on Sunday" o60.5 (-175). Looked unbeatable, but I just couldn't bring myself to lay all that chalk.

[TMoney33]

I just hedged out my BAL+140 play by taking a live line of PHI+200 for 1u @ DSI. If BAL wins I earn 0.4u, if PHI wins I make 1u. Pretty nice opportunity. I think that it's even better now. Last I saw was PHI+250.

[TMoney33]

Not a true hedge, but I took NE 2nd Half -7(-120) risking 1.2u to win 1u. I think that NE will really ramp things up in the 2nd, and if they cover it will be by 7+. I still have AZ+625. So this won't really hurt unless NE wins by 1-6pts.

[TMoney33]

TRACKING

I base my units on 1% of my BR. As the BR changes week to week, my unit size changes. However, for tracking, I realize that this is going to be incredibly difficult to keep up. All of my plays are posted to the spreadsheet, with the actual amount played, so I'm not going to bother trying to do all of the math in this thread. For tracking here, I'll just use +/- $ amount, and ROI based on the original BR of $1K.

[TMoney33]

DSI Live Betting

I am really starting to love DSI's live betting. Not because of the platform (Bovada's is much nicer), but because of the opportunities presented.

So far today, I have used it four times to hedge/arb plays.

#1
Original play: BAL+140 - Risking $8.5 to win $11.9
Live play: PHI+200 - Risking $8.5 to win $17
At this point, I was risk free with a min win of $3.4 and a max win of $8.5
End Result: PHI won and instead of losing $8.5, I won $8.5
Swing: +$17

#2
Original play: AZ+625 - Risking $8.5 to win $53.13
Live play: NE-7(-120) - Risking $10.20 to win $8.5
This one actually increased my risk with a min win of $0 and a max win of $18.7
End Result: AZ won s/u and instead of winning $53.13 I won $44.63
Swing: -$8.5

#3
Original play: STL+170 - Risking $8.5 to win $14.45
Live play: WAS+130 - Risking $10 to win $13
At this point, I was risk free with a min win of $4.45 and a max win of $4.5
End Result: STL won s/u and instead of winning $14.45, I won $4.45
Swing: -$10

#4
Original play: PIT-5 - Risking $17 to win $15.45
Live play: NYJ+9.5(+154) - Risking $15 to win $23.1
This one gave me a chance to middle if PIT won by 6-9 with a min win of $0.45 and a max win of $38.55
End Result: PIT won by 17 and instead of winning $15.45 I won $0.45
Swing: -$15

End Result, I cost myself $16.5 in profit, but I did substantially reduce my risk which was very nice in the BAL/PHI and WAS/STL games. I also gave myself a nice chance at a middle on PIT/NYJ. Ultimately this cost me money today, but I can definitely see how this could make me money in the long run with some more tweaking. One big takeaway is that this should work much better with underdogs ATS than underdogs on the ML.

All in all, a good learning experience.