FYI last years NFL ML Faves went 68%

[rkelly110]

Hi guys, I'm a ML fave bettor in most sports. Wanted to post an FYI for last years NFL.

Last years reaserch showed ML odds of -222 and lower went 15-7 68%.
(I use decimal odds, ML odds of 1.45 and over)

A B C chase went 22-0

Bet the ML fave to win. Some times you will have two teams with the same ML odds.
If they have the same start times, bet both. If the times are split,(1pm-4pm) do an A B bet.
I'm conservative, if the A bet wins, I quit.

I hope it holds true for this year. GL guys.

Here's the week by week from last year. (decimal)

9.11 1.50 L/ 1.50 W (A)
9.18 1.47 W (B)
9.25 1.50 W/ 1.50 W (A)
10.2 1.52 W (A)
10.9 1.45 L (A)
10.16 1.52 W (B)
10.23 1.47 W (A)
10.30 1.52 L/ 1.52 W (A)
11.6 1.45 L (B)
11.13 1.47 W/ 1.47 W (C)
11.20 1.64 W (A)
11.27 1.60 W (A)
12.4 1.47 L (A)
12.11 1.50 W/ 1.50 L (A)
12.18 1.52 L (B)
12.24 1.50 W (C)
1.1 1.52 W (A)

[rkelly110]

NY giants (A) tonight. 1.50 (-200) ML GL

[rkelly110]

Did a look at the over and under on those teams/ odds.

Under won 12 times
Over won 6 times
Tie/ push went 3 times

[rkelly110]

Checked ATS of the same teams. Only lost one game more than just betting the ML. 14-8 64%
The odds are a lot better @ 1.90 (-111). Highest ATS spread points were -4, the lowest -3 pts.

For parlay players, combining the ML with the under, either chasing or labbying would be nice odds for profit.

[a4u2fear]

Unless it holds over multiple years, beware

[rkelly110]

(B) bet on New England ML 1.45 (-222) W

Also played -4 W and the under of 48 W

Sorry a little late, had to go to grandkids football game.

[k13]

So only 22 games had ML's -222 and lower?????

[onacloud]

chase systems always crash and burn

[rkelly110]

Yes k13 according to my printouts from last year. I probably don't have them all, like midweek games.

Chase systems do sometimes crash and burn, going in with a system and what to look for, will always
do better than coin flipping. Thanks for your optimism, cloud.

[rkelly110]

(A) bet Green Bay -222 (1.45) ML

Line dropped to 1.41, I parlayed the ML with the under 50.5 1.90. W

-5 RL wins also

Score 23-10

[rkelly110]

(A) bet Washington -195 (1.52) ML L

-3.5 -110 L

Total 43.5 L

3-0 on the under
2-1 ML
2-1 ATS

A 2-1
B 1-0

[rkelly110]

(B) bet Atlanta ML 1.61 (-155)

-3 ATS 1.91 (-110)

Total of 50.5

Score 27-21

4-1 under
3-2 ML
3-2 ATS

A 2-2
B 2-0

[rkelly110]

(A) bet Carolina ML 1.66 (-150) (not sure about this one)

-3 ATS 2.00 (+100)

Total is 49.5

Score 7-36

5-1 under
3-3 ML
3-3 ATS

[rkelly110]

(B) bet Detroit ML 1.47

ATS -3.5 1.86

Total 47

Score 41-44 (one hell of a game!)

5-2 under
3-4 ML
3-4 ATS

A 2-3
B 2-1
C

[rkelly110]

(C) bet Green bay ML 1.57

-3 1.83

Total 46

Score 12-14

6-2 under
3-5 ML
3-5 ATS

A 2-4
B 2-1
C 0-1

[rkelly110]

Bad beat on Greenbay. Would've won that.

Today is an (A) bet on Arizona ML 1.45

-4.5 1.90

Total is 40.5

Score 24-21 (OT)

6-3 under
4-5 ML
3-6 ATS

A 3-4
B 2-1
C 0-1

[rkelly110]

A bet on Cincinnati (1pm) ML 1.52

ATS -3.5 1.95

Total 46

Score 13-17

B bet on New Orleans (8:30pm) ML 1.52

ATS -3.5 1.90

Total 52

Score 31-24

7-4 under
5-6 ML
4-7 ATS

A 4-5
B 3-1
C 0-1

[rkelly110]

A bet is on Tampa ML 1.45

-4.5 ATS

Total is 39.5

Score 38-10

7-5 under
6-6 ML
5-7 ATS

A 5-5
B 3-1
C 0-1

[rkelly110]

I'm laying off mid week games, because my last years records didn't show them. The way midweek games are
going, it's best to not play them. Will do Sun and Mon.

A bet is on Green bay ML 1.45

-4.5 ATS

Total is 45

Score 30-20

7-6 under
7-6 ML
6-7 ATS

A 6-5
B 3-1
C 0-1

[rkelly110]

(A) bet is on Pittsburg ML 1.50

-4 ATS

The total is 43.5

Score 27-12

8-6 under
8-6 ML
7-7 ATS

A 7-5
B 3-1
C 0-1

[rkelly110]

(A) bet is on Seattle ML 1.47

-4 ATS

Total is 38.5

[rkelly110]

[QUOTE=rkelly110;16640228](A) bet is on Seattle ML 1.47

-4 ATS

Total is 38.5

Score 30-20

8-7 under
9-6 ML
8-7 ATS

A 8-5
B 3-1
C 0-1

[rkelly110]

(A) bet is on Denver 1.50 ML

-3.5 ATS

Total is 47

Score 36-14

8-8 under
10-6 ML
9-7 ATS

A 9-5
B 3-1
C 0-1

[rkelly110]

(A) bet is on New Orleans 1.45 ML

-5 ATS

Total is 55.5

Score 38-17

9-8 Under
11-6 ML
10-7 ATS

A 10-5
B 3-1
C 0-1

[rkelly110]

Won 6 (A) bets in a row. Let's keep it going!
We're at 65% on the ML, 59% ATS and 53% on the under of the same games.

(A) bet is on Tennessee 1.50 ML

-3.5 ATS

Total is 44.5

Score 19-24

10-8 under
11-7 ML
10-8 ATS

A 10-6
B 3-1
C 0-1

(that's what happens when you get all cocky)

[rkelly110]

(B) bet is on Chicago ML @ 1.62

ATS -3

Total is 36.5

Score 17-23

10-9 Under
11-8 ML
10-9 ATS

A 10-6
B 3-2
C 0-1

[rkelly110]

(C) bet is on Indy ML @ 1.47 (1pm)

ATS is -4 TIE

Total is 47

Score 27-23

(A) bet is on NY Giants @ 1.45 ML (4:25pm)

ATS -4.5

Total is 51.5

Score 52-27

10-11 under
13-8 ML
11-10 ATS

A 11-6
B 3-3
C 1-1

[rkelly110]

(A) bet is on Seattle ML 1.45 (4pm)

ATS is -4.5

Totals is 44

Score 50-17

(A) bet is on New England ML 1.45 (8:30pm) (As I said in a previous post, my A bet won
and I would've quit for the day. This bet is for record keeping.)

ATS is -4.5

Total is 47

Score 34-41

10-13 under
14-9 ML
12-11 ATS

A 12-7
B 3-3
C 1-1

[rkelly110]

Yesterdays play on Atlanta @ 1.50 should've been a play. I played it and won. But for the spirit of the thread I won't
record keep that one.

(B) bet is on Pittsburg @ 1.52 ML

-3 ATS

41 is the total