Preseason Friday Teaser

SparJMU · 08-24-12, 01:54 PM

Yesterday I told a user that his play was horrible. Somehow within 24 hours I have witnessed a play that is even worse. Amazing things happen on SBR forum.

Unrivaled · 08-24-12, 02:42 PM

Originally posted by SparJMU

Yesterday I told a user that his play was horrible. Somehow within 24 hours I have witnessed a play that is even worse. Amazing things happen on SBR forum.

What is bad about this play? I'm sorry but I fail to see how this play is "worse than horrible" considering the trend of high NFL scoring games lately. And for that matter maybe you should look at my record for teasers before you reply with "teaser is a sucker bet" as I've hit 50% of the ones I've posted. I really hope this play hits so you can go back to your hole and never reply to a thread I make again.

SparJMU · 08-25-12, 12:04 PM

I have no clue what happened in last nights games (although I GUARANTEE this is a losing bet), so let's stick to general teaser betting as opposed to this truly pathetic bet.

Explain to me mathematically why teasing a total is a smart play. Please include the push rates for all NFL preseason totals. I will provide the basic numbers for you because I imagine you have no idea where to start, then you can explain the profitability aspect for me.

7:1 odds means you have to win this bet 12.5% of the time to breakeven. Since there are 6 "legs" in the teaser, each leg has to hit at an average of 71% in order to achieve the 12.5% win rate. Now it's your turn, show me the math to prove that teasing a total from Over 37 to over 31 will win at a 71% rate or better.

Unrivaled · 08-25-12, 02:01 PM

Originally posted by SparJMU

I have no clue what happened in last nights games (although I GUARANTEE this is a losing bet), so let's stick to general teaser betting as opposed to this truly pathetic bet.

Explain to me mathematically why teasing a total is a smart play. Please include the push rates for all NFL preseason totals. I will provide the basic numbers for you because I imagine you have no idea where to start, then you can explain the profitability aspect for me.

7:1 odds means you have to win this bet 12.5% of the time to breakeven. Since there are 6 "legs" in the teaser, each leg has to hit at an average of 71% in order to achieve the 12.5% win rate. Now it's your turn, show me the math to prove that teasing a total from Over 37 to over 31 will win at a 71% rate or better.

I really could care less what you think, if you want to see my success you can look at my old posts in this forum. I won three 7/8 team teasers in a row when I started doing it last season so although I don't always hit, I'll take the 21 units won for 2 units lost the next couple weeks I didn't hit. My rules generally in the regular season are: don't tease the over in a niners game/steelers game and don't tease the under in a packers game. For me the games have hit at over 80% so I'll take those odds any day.

Obviously preseason is alot harder but since most games have been going over the teaser numbers I'll do it again today. Again likely one of the games won't hit, but if they all do I just got my 2 units lost yesterday plus another 5.

Colts O 36
Bills O 34.5
Lions O 37.5
Rams O 34.5
Saints O 37.5
Stamps O 47 (CFL)

SparJMU · 08-25-12, 06:14 PM

Wow so you just don't want to listen to someone who is trying to educate you? I just explained to you in simple terms why your bet is terrible. You ignore my words, and then bet another one?

Leo Bello · 08-25-12, 10:37 PM

Dear Unrivaled: Sparman's math is unassailable. It sort of shouts to you that "In the battle of wits, sir, you are unarmed." Nevertheless, why do you insist on betting six different over and unders. I do think you could have made money this preseason if you would have increased your bet size by 6 and stuck with your strongest 2 over and under selections. You would have collected some winners instead of losing every bet on the sheets I saw. Sometimes out of 6 selections you only had 1 wrong. Sparman is just trying to tell you that as a rule teasing totals is not profitable. You did win a great preponderance of your selections, however.

Unrivaled · 08-26-12, 12:18 AM

Originally posted by SparJMU

Wow so you just don't want to listen to someone who is trying to educate you? I just explained to you in simple terms why your bet is terrible. You ignore my words, and then bet another one?

Haha I couldnt care less about your "educating me" as only one of my bets lost. I can see if I was missing half of them but if I ignored the CFL I would have profited. However, I can't see into the future that one offense is going to forget to show up to the game (47 points is very low in the CFL). You can rip me apart when I lose four or five in a row but my biggest losing streak is 2 plays.

Unrivaled · 08-26-12, 12:21 AM

Originally posted by Leo Bello

Dear Unrivaled: Sparman's math is unassailable. It sort of shouts to you that "In the battle of wits, sir, you are unarmed." Nevertheless, why do you insist on betting six different over and unders. I do think you could have made money this preseason if you would have increased your bet size by 6 and stuck with your strongest 2 over and under selections. You would have collected some winners instead of losing every bet on the sheets I saw. Sometimes out of 6 selections you only had 1 wrong. Sparman is just trying to tell you that as a rule teasing totals is not profitable. You did win a great preponderance of your selections, however.

That's a good point but I obviously haven't done much research and can't really as it's the preseason and coaches kind of hide what they plan to do during the game. I just followed the math that showed that around 85-90% of preseason overs were winning with teasers so took my chances on random games. I will keep that in mind during the regular season though and usually do skip over half of the games when I am making my decisions. (Example if a team has an injured quarterback won't bet/If the spread is super high won't bet the over etc)